Mes: octubre 2008

The Biological Warfare

ITS REAL POSSIBILITIES AS TERRORISTS’ USABLE WEAPON AND IN THE MODERN WARFARE. ITS INSTRUMENTS AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT.

The biological warfare is the military use, as war weapon, of the living pathogenic, animal or plant organisms, and of the natural poisonous products, called toxins. Since the germs and the bacteria are used in it, it is also called germ warfare, though this term only incorporates a part of the biological agents capable of being used aggressively against the men.

The military use of the pathogenic microbes.
The pathogenic organisms, which produce diseases in the man, can classify in 4 big categories or types: the fungi, the bacteria, the virus and the rickettsia, an intermediate entity between these 2 last ones, in its nature, size and characteristics.
The bacteria are unicellular organisms of spherical (they take the suffix coco in the name), cylindrical (the bacilli) or spiral (the espirilium) forms. They reproduce by transverse repeated division and, often, the partial microbes remain united forming a chain. Many of them can move by means of their whips or eyelashes (shorter). According to Lauria, the virus is a genetic element constituted by ribonucleic acid and desoxirribonucleic acid, suitably to move from cell to cell and capably of synthesizing with the available amino acids its particular proteins, which will form then the infective viral particles. It is not known neither its origin nor the date of its appearance, since the existence of fossils virus is ignored. Elford, in 1931, managed to measure its size, which varies between 10 and 300 microns. Also the virus classify in vegetables, animals and bacteriafhagous, every type with their specific characteristics. Their vital cycle has, among others, 5 important phases for us: fixation to the cellular surface, penetration inside the cell, multiplication of the virus at the cost of the components of that one, liberation of the new viral individuals and their dispersion in the environment.
The military employment of the pathogenic microbes is difficult, because they are living organisms. The military usual vectors, the conventional (explosive grenades) and the reactive artillery (rockets with ballistic path, without autonomous direction) and the air bombs, turn out to be too aggressive and destroy them before their dispersion in the target. To eliminate these serious limitations, bombs with ceramic cases have been developed, which has been tried satisfactorily with flies infected with the bacterium yessinia pestis, the causer of the bubonic pest. Also it has been tried its dispersion through the air, using dispensers means of several types. But its control and the estimation of the effect on the target are very difficult. During the 40s of last century, biological desiccated and freezing of the microbes technologies were improved. With them it was seeking to prolong their life and to increase their resistance, allowing them a major storage time, their dispersion using explosives and to achieve a longer exposure in the environmental conditions.
Their real employment by means of not military transmitters has been more common. In 1763, during the war in North America between Great Britain and France for the control of all the European colonies, the military British command decided to try to infect with smallpox the hostile Indians. With this motive 2 sheets and a handkerchief from the room of infected by smallpox in a British hospital, were delivered to 2 Indian chiefs. The disease spread soon among the tribes.
Soon after the suicidal air raids on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, in September, 2001, some packages and letters supposedly containing anthrax spores, active or in vitro, acquired or stolen in pharmacological investigation laboratories began to appear in the USA, in the post offices and the addresses. The collective paranoia of these tragic moments helped to increase the extension and the importance of these facts. And it constituted a multiplier of the propaganda perverse effect in any type of individual or collective terrorism aggression. Whose purpose is the terror extension, generally using violent indiscriminate actions and the threats of repeating them. That do that all the members of the attacked collectivity considering themselves to be possible or probable, according with the cases, goals of these future actions.
 

The toxins as a warfare weapon.
The toxins are poisons naturally produced by the plants or the animals, so much the big or visible as the microscopic ones or microbes.
The toxins have certain advantages for their employment as war weapon. They are natural, not more or less complicated, costly and unstable synthesis chemical products. This facilitates their production in pilot or manufacturer plant scale. Some of the biological toxins are among the most poisonous products that are known. Their effect is made without the presence of the producing agent. This one, as an alive organism, presents problems in its manipulation, as being more unstable or perishable than toxins. That is to say, they can be preserved and spread easier, by means of explosive special grenades or with aerosols or atomizers dispensers, boosted by inert or neutral gases.
The enterotoxin B of the golden estafilococo is the responsible of the majority of the food human poisonings. This bacterium can grow in multitude foods and on having done produces the toxin, which is consumed by the consumption. In general, the enterotoxin B is not lethal, but a dose of only 50 micrograms already causes vomits and diarrheas in the adults. The deliberate use of this toxin is possible. For example, during a siege by the irregular rebels, always relaxed and no hermetic, to military defensive positions, and trying to scourge and to debilitated the vital enemy resistance. The sharp sound effect produced by the operating toxin is called almost onomatopoeicly «the whistling sound».
A more terrible toxin, which it is possible also to find in the food, is the butolinic A toxin, produced by the clostridium butolinic bacteria. It is the most powerful known poison, a microgram kills an adult. The normal appearance of the bacterium associates with the badly preserved food, as the expired or badly sterilized during its manufacture tinned vegetables. It is a neuroagent that causes that the nervous system accumulates in excess during its functioning the acetilcolin, in a similar way that do the of nervous type agents used in the chemical warfare.
The castor toxin exists in the seeds and the leaves of the common castor plant. Its use by the secret service Bulgarian agents known as the umbrellas’ assassins, was confirmed in the 70s. In the free ends of those were concealed a mechanical launcher, which was projecting a pellet impregnated with the castor toxin and capably in the short distance of going in the naked meat. Two Bulgarian dissidents fled from the communist regime in their country, were positively identified of having being murdered this way in London.
 

Its appearance in the History. Modern situation.
From very ancient the pathogenic agents and the toxins have been used with military purposes. The poisoning of the enemy water fountains or to throw the infectious patients corpses over the enemy defensive walls, are military methods used by Alexander the Great or the Mongolian. It is only in the modern times when the use of biological agents in the war has acquired a stigma character. This way, no modern nation has admitted its employment in combat against her enemies.
We have an extreme example of how the use of biological agents by profane persons can go away of control, in the siege of the Genoese city of Kaffa, today called Feodosiya, placed in the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea. During in it the biological harmful effects were reasonably circumscribed inside the walls of this city. In the middle of the XIVth century the Mongolian were besieging the city. The Mongolian were throwing over her walls, using catapults, the dead men’s bodies by the bubonic pest. It is thought that some Genoese ships that departed from the city towards their metropolis, could carry the plague’s bacillus, which was habitually lodging in the rates. Hereby the bubonic pest could reach Italy, and begin the massive and fulminating epidemic known in the History as the Black Death, which almost depopulated the European continent in that century.
From the 80s of last century, the genetic engineering and the biotecnology have turned into technically industrial instruments destined to improve the life conditions of the humanity. One of its possible applications is the development of vaccines against the pathogenic agents, both the natural and the reinforced by genetic actions on the first ones. This can allow the most developed countries to acquire a certain more or less widespread immunity, which is never absolute, against these biological attacks. Whereas their potential enemies, less technologically developed and with fewer economic resources, except the crude oil producers during the expansion phase of the sales cycle, would be defenseless against the biological military agents.
Its military use is punctual and restricted.
The effective, precise in the time and controlled use of biological agents in the modern combat is difficult and its results are also too vague. For the majority of the biological agents, its own nature does that its controlled launch on a target is difficult. Between the effective action on the enemy and the beginning and the development of the disease, it exists an unavoidable delay, due to the inevitable incubation periods, that goes from the hours to days; which is never acceptable in a mobile military operation. Always exist the natural and the acquired immunities (by vaccination or more or less controlled exposure), that prevent from specifying the real probable results, the number of enemy casualties derived from a biological attack. The theoretical estimated effects are diminished by certain climatic conditions, the rain, the fog, the solar luminosity and the extreme temperatures, or altered by the winds, which drag them of the surface target.
For all this, nowadays the military use of biological agents has a restricted employment in the special operations and the more or less concealed harassment of the enemy, technique where the time is not a rigid and critical parameter. This way, the goal of debilitating the enemy, more than eliminate him totally, does that the calculations of the conflicting forces correlation have to be neither so exact nor so punctual in time. The dissemination of the biological agents becomes directly, without the employment of the heavy ammunitions used as vectors. And the time between the exposure and the development of the disease, betrayed by its symptoms, constitutes then a planning factor within the attacking plan.
 

Its difficult and improbable use by terrorists and madmen.
Attempts have been, as the already indicated about the anthrax spores and this that we report now. In 1980 the French police assaulted a home of the Red German Army Fraction in Paris, placed in n º 41 A, Chaillot street. Those which chiefs committed simultaneously suicide later in their isolation cells in Germany. There they found a simple but effective installation «washing-up basin» type for producing the butolinic A toxin.
A natural repugnance exists in the men to experiencing the diseases, specially the infectious, the disfigurement ones and the extreme debilitating. It is only enough to see the announcements about all kinds of health centers, which offer something like a youth elixir, similar to that Ponce of León looked for in The Florida in the 16th century. The age is inevitable and implacable, but it is sought to keep, almost by all the means, the use and enjoyment of the maturity, which deterioration is one of the most fearsome effects of the diseases. The infectious serious diseases are in the habit of passing with external catastrophic symptoms. The man s attacked from inside in his aspect, in his integrity and in his capacities, by a painful and even disgusting way, up to his infamous death. This is not the death more or less adorned by us, to make it glorious and less disgusting, which is waited for the soldiers in the battlefield.
The manipulation of the pathogenic microbes and their poisonous derivatives imply high pharmacological and chemical technology operations. Here any leak or impurity leads to the failure of the experiment or to an affection of the manipulators (the most nearby and exposed possible carriers). And already we know something of how these pathogenic dwarfs and their organic products operate over us.
The fundamentalist Islamic fanatics do not find in the Noble Koran nor in the Prophet’s sunna any inducement, stimulus or excuse for their employment in the war. The microbes and their humors are in the category of the pork, the dog, the aquatic animals without fins, of the banned by Allah, all of them impure and detestable for the faithful Muslim. When the Book descended from Allah, the “ansars” or Islam’s devout could acceptably died by the sword, the mace, the axe, the lance and the arrows, in defense of the Umma or universal Islamic community and to extend its domains, applying the Jihad or sanctified war in many aleyas or verses of the Koran.
One also speaks about the possible utilization of the most attainable and known for the biological warfare means by the madmen. But a mad is not an demented. The demented has degraded his cognitive and volitional powers, by the physical deterioration of his cerebral tissues, due to the age or certain diseases (ictus, cerebral arteriosclerosis). The mad, for his part, has a portion of his feelings, ideas and concepts affected, upset and missed. But the madman is capable of reasoning specially in the topics that I will call «objectives», which are outside of his deliriums and mental affections. The madman can believe that his more or less individual terrorist actions, will be important to subvert the political regime of a country. But the mad can know how to mix sugar and potassium chlorate (the pills to disinfect the throat) to make a domestic explosive. Though the ETA (BASQUE SECESIONIST REVOLUTIONARY GROUP) adds sulphur to it, here it is not needed and only reduces the weight efficiency, since the chlorine takes charge connecting with the potassium and forming potassium chloride. In any case, the sulphur can be obtained, as component of the gunpowder, if there exist sensitive products restrictions, treating with commercial chlorhidric acid the sodium bisulphide, a photographic developer. Or how to concentrate the cars batteries liquid, to obtain sulphuric acid, base to obtain nitric acid (for the cotton powder or without smoke powder) and nitrates (the oxygen supplier in the smoke gunpowders, base of the pyrotechnic. And the madman also has very much, a lot of fear, probably more because a hypochondriac specific component, about the degrading diseases, stigmatized by the social group.

THE WORLD BANKING CRISIS

Have we in march a Banking Crisis of unknown scale? This banking crisis, is it a fault of the theories of the so called new conservatives or «neocons»?. Does the banking world crisis obey to a structural deficiency of the capitalism?, that would appear periodically, never in the same manner, and with more or less force and extension in each economic cycle.

Or are the culprits of the world banking crisis rather an important number of bankers of many developed nations, together with the authorities of these? The first ones, more than bankers, are «trashy window bank employees». And they are lacking of foresight, stupid and eager of money and power, in a sinister and criminal amalgam generated in a «chaos born within itself». The authorities are responsible of not having established a legal frame of alertness and regulation of the financial structure, increasingly sophisticated and complex. Which is adapted to such so evident, important and vital activity for the modern economies, as is the reasonable guarantee of the banking deposits and the generation of the banking enough credit. The fool is that who ignores what he must know.

Do this suppose a return to the ideas of the socialist economy? Do we need a Great financial state Brother?, another heavy, costly, slow, slightly productive, official mechanism. Nooo. The mission of the Public Powers is to establish a frame or financial practical, legal and modern method or way of action. With the sufficient means for its control and the correction of the alterations produced by the inevitable diversions (like a driver or a ship pilot), in a constant, relatively simple and agile way. Then, it is necessary to allow operate the economic agents, that are all of us, acting as consumers, businessmen, borrowers, employees, institutions, etc., in the different partial markets: of credit, transport, supplies, stocks, etc. Why has it to be the State?, because it is the institution that is supposed must control and rule, over persons and private entities.

Why cannot be the IMF or the World Bank, born in the Breton Woods agreements and with long actuation history, the supranational organizations that execute these new labors of inspection and correction? I believe that because they lack the legal and coercive means, to impose their economic criteria to sovereign different states. The proof is the compound attitude of the European states against the world banking crisis, make concrete in specific, individualized, different actions, for each participant state. For much that, in its origin, it was called Common European Market. When the states are too heavy and cumbersome juridical, historically and socially, the unanimity is very difficult and laborious.

We will see the mechanism of the creation and of the contraction of the credit, from the mechanism of the creation and of the retreat of deposits in an economic system. The reason is that both are the core of the origin of the current financial chaos, in progressive and advanced development …

How does banking activity work? Why and for what are credits requested to the banks? Why is it very important that the banking «assets» are healthy and recoverable at their ending time? Are healthy the parameters of the current financial activity: system liquidity (European M2); relative volume of non-paid expired debts; maintenance of the bank deposits; control of the “general level of prices”; confidence and credibility of the different economic agents, etc.?

The banking receives all classes of deposits from the public: checking, savings and time limit accounts. And even it emits certificates or bonds with its guarantee, which sells to big public institutions, companies and investors. Also the banks lend to others them «cash» and even come to the Central Bank of their Systems, asking for funds for different time periods. All this money the banking «owes» to the public in general. So it the items that represent it, appear in their «liabilities». For the use of this money, the banks pay a few interests to their depositories (rather little) or to their lenders and bondholders (slightly more). The own funds of the banking would join also these «liabilities», always a small fraction of them, represented by their shares and not distributed earnings, which they owe to their owners or shareholders. We call «banking» to the set of the bank system of an economic integrated system. And, «banks» to the set of these public and private specialized agencies of that one.
A part of that money, the banks keeps it in their branches windows and strongboxes, forming their treasuries and the legal and voluntary reserves. Let’s suppose that the banks keep as «cash» one of every 5 monetary received units. The other 4 units of money they give for different periods and prices (types) to their «credit clients» or borrowers: companies, public organizations, banks and persons, both natives and foreigners. Even they do it buying bonds and IOUs of companies and their shares and increases in capital. Those all use them for their needs and investment decisions, treasury, circulating and to buy for the consumption both in short and long term. They are in the habit of being over their real possibilities of bringing together their own payment means.
We consider the houses mortgages to be directed to an investment, specially in certain countries. Since the persons who take them, believe that if they have to sell the houses, «always» they will receive more than they cost them. And their real use value, if they are made well, are kept reasonably along the life of their first owners. This would mean that Spain would have a saving rate very superior to the attributed in the official statistics. Since a part of the public would be saving, even over his possibilities, in a good of the type «value deposit». Why the difference with the statistics? For a difference of criterion, as almost always it happens. I call “value deposits” of to the goods in which it can concentrate and keep and still be used without a valuable deterioration. The houses (well constructed and located), the jewels and the ancient coins (at their real value), the money (in moderate inflation times) are goods generally used as value deposits by the persons. And it is not a car, even a high class one, which value loses value excessively after the purchase.
In addition, a part of the lent money comes back to the banks, as new deposits of their borrowers. Because nobody uses immediately all the received money, keeping only the necessary cash for the minor immediate payments. Neither it is hidden at home or in the company, except during social catastrophic periods. This is going to generate more reserves and new available cash for lend or invest by the banking.
In the General Economics books is demonstrated that with that initial mentioned reserve of 1 monetary unit of each 5 received, the set of the banks can manage to give on credit up to 5 monetary units. More that creating bank money, what they real and more properly make is to multiply the possible credit to the society, whom they serve and from whom they benefit, with their activity as financial intermediaries. Our reader will have felt that, likewise, when the banking has to attend to payments and sell assets for it, the set of these then contract in the proportion 5 to 1. And as an intrinsic quality of the money is that it cannot vanish, so we call this essential process, as credit creation and not of bank money.
Those lends in general are, together with his modest own money reserves, the «assets» of a bank. The part of its balance that it can immediately use, demand, realize or sell other one in the secondary or interbank markets. It is very important that these assets are sure, chargeable in their proper moment, good. Since if an anomalous punctual retreat of money by its depositories happens or presents a good investment of or lending opportunity, the bank has to recover the cash, liquidating a part of these «assets» or paying with healthy assets.
How are now the performing parameters of the bank activity? The immense majority of the credit in general granted by the banks is good and recoverable. The real number of bankrupts of declared bad debts is low and controllable. The public in general (companies. Institutions and persons) keeps his deposits in the banking and attends to the payments, staggered in the time, of his lends in general or of his liabilities (payment of services, to suppliers, obligations). The liquidity of the system, the European M2 or his American equivalent, is high and even lightly inflationary. And it is more than sufficient to allow to realize all the economic necessary transactions, which is one of the principal functions of the money. Nobody has money «per se», but to use it in a more or less near future or, at least, with the hope or intention of doing so.
Another thing is that it is retained, kept under bed, buried or shut in the branches strongboxes. Why? For fear and distrust, which are the demons of the anticredit. In effect, the latter point or parameter, that which noisy and essentially faults, consists in the fact that the confidence, the guarantee, the solvency and the respectability among the agents of the system tends intensively to 0.
And the prolongation of the banking crisis, characterized by the deterioration and the disturbance of its essential activities, will turn progressively the potential bad debts in real, will restrict the creation of bank deposits and will extend in “shocking waves” the damages to the whole economic system.
There are no good thinking listened heads. The social leaders that risk, do not apply half measures, compromise themselves and always mistake something, are cornered, ignored or they can not arise or act. Because they are not politically correct, full of calm and good nature, expert in communication and manipulation of emotions, and using anesthesic words of the action, the revulsive and the concerted effort. The national societies face now an incredible, unthinkable problem a few months ago. And they are deprived in these moments of a social guiding and governing ideology and, in general, of useful, helpful and reliable leaders.

The Interest rates and the Liquidity. Another vision of the intimate Reasons of the Crisis.

It is said that with the descent of finantial rates, money is injected into the financial system, wrinkled by the confidence lack in the institutional or final borrower. And all resolved. But not. With the rates descent the business are facilitated. The private ones, the managerial ones and the public ones. On having stooped the bar of the financial costs, I can get tangled up better, can better attend to the payments of a mortgage at variable rate, or risk in another investment with minor marginal yield (the additional yield that the new investment will give me). The rate is a «relative measure» of the official value of the accepted means of payment.
The liquidity is the European M2 or his USA equivalentl: the money (about 8 % GDP) and the cuasi money: the deposits and easily realizable titles of debt (without term deposits). If there are no means of payment, though they are cheap (interest rate), I can neither spend nor invest. Where there is no flour, everything is gloomy, says the popular Spanish wisdom.
But already we have liquidity (the M3 (that includes the M2) is growing (to about 11-12 % in the last months) and the rates are very low. The compound action of October 8 of the principal central world banks, has left them in 1,5% in USA and 3,75% in the Euro monetary zone. Then, what does happen to us? Well, we do not have confidence in the possible investment. Or we are afraid that we will have difficulties to pay the loan. And the fear spreads as oil. The people handle numbers, but it cannot easily handle feelings or intuitions. Because they are not easy to measure. And one lacks moral courage and education to walk along these seemingly unknown ways.
The rates are like the engine and the liquidity, the fuel. Why does not run the car? Because it does not have driver: the will of the experienced driver who guides it. Apart that a productive investment does not produce at once. A nuclear power station takes 15 years, since begin the planning and decision works. Four legislatures. And they cannot risk, without a regulatory insured frame. There are 25 million houses constructed in Spain. Are needed many more? And, many people have been bought at excessive prices, thinking that its price always would grow. I calculate in 450 thousand the normal replacement (for around 50 years of house life). We have been constructing 650-700 thousand during the last three or four years.

Some corollaries or consequences of enormous importance.

The absolute liquidity does not exist, because there is no money in reserves to simultaneously attend to all the depositors. Not neither in any bank, nor in any country. For definition of what is the using of money. This happened to the British Northern Rock, which had long tails in the windows. In Spain there are around of 2,2 trillions of Euros in bank deposits.
It is necessary to re-establish the confidence in the bank system of every country. Then there will be credibility and monetary money and enough credit surplus. This is more difficult in these moments, that a few months ago. Because the public is started realizing that his money is not have in the basement of his bank branch. In fact the real arrears is minimal yet. Another thing is that the borrowers are all potential bad debts, especially if the economies deteriorate. And the banks with these captive and depreciated assets can not do anything.

LA CRISIS BANCARIA MUNDIAL

Tenemos en marcha una crisis bancaria a escala desconocida. Esta crisis bancaria actual, ¿es culpa de las teorías de los llamados nuevos conservadores o “neocons”?. ¿Obedece la crisis bancaria mundial a una deficiencia estructural del capitalismo?, que se manifestaría periódicamente, nunca igual, y con más o menos fuerza y extensión en cada ciclo.
 
¿O los culpables de la crisis bancaria mundial son más bien un número importante de banqueros de muchas naciones, junto con las autoridades de éstas? Los primeros, más que banqueros, son “bancarios de ventanilla y de pacotilla”. Y son imprevisores, necios y ávidos de dinero y poder, en una amalgama siniestra y delictiva, generada en un “caos nacido de sí mismo”. Las autoridades son responsables de no haber establecido un marco de vigilancia y regulador del entramado financiero, cada vez más sofisticado y complejo. Y que sea adecuado a una actividad tan evidente, importante y vital para las economías modernas, como es la garantía razonable de los depósitos y la generación del crédito bancario suficiente. El necio es aquél que ignora lo que debiera saber.

¿Supone esto una vuelta a las ideas de la economía socialista? ¿Necesitamos a un Gran Hermano financiero estatal?, otro mecanismo oficial pesado, costoso, lento, poco productivo, sujeto a corrupciones continuas. Nooo. La misión de los poderes públicos es establecer un marco o método de actuación financiero práctico, legal y moderno. Y los medios para su observación y la corrección de las inevitables desviaciones, de manera continua, relativamente sencilla y ágil. Luego hay que dejar actuar a los agentes económicos, que somos todos, actuando como consumidores, empresarios, empleados, prestatarios, instituciones, etc., en los distintos mercados parciales: de crédito, de transportes, de abastos, de valores, etc. ¿Por qué tiene que ser el Estado?, porque es la institución que se supone debe controlar y regir, en nombre de todos, por encima de personas y entidades privadas.

¿Por qué no pueden ser el FMI o el Banco Mundial, nacidos en los pactos de Breton Woods y con larga historia, los organismos supranacionales que realicen esas nuevas labores de inspección y corrección? Creo que porque carecen de los medios legales, y aún coactivos, para imponer sus criterios económicos a estados soberanos diferentes. La prueba es que la actitud concertada de los estados europeos contra la crisis bancaria mundial, se concreta en acciones específicas, individualizadas, diferentes, para cada estado participante. Por mucho que, en su origen, se llamase Mercado Común Europeo. Cuando los estados son demasiado pesados jurídica, histórica y socialmente, la unanimidad es muy difícil y laboriosa.  

Veremos el mecanismo de la creación y de la contracción del crédito, a partir del mecanismo de la creación y de la retirada de depósitos de un sistema económico. La razón es que ambos son el núcleo del origen del actual caos financiero, en desarrollo progresivo y avanzado…

¿Cómo funciona la actividad bancaria? ¿Por qué y para qué se solicitan créditos a la banca? ¿Por qué es muy importante que los “activos” bancarios sean sanos y cobrables a su tiempo? ¿Son sanos los parámetros de la actual actividad financiera: liquidez del sistema (M2 europeo); volumen relativo de impagos vencidos; mantenimiento de los depósitos bancarios; control del nivel general de precios; confianza y credibilidad de los distintos agentes económicos, etc.?

La banca recibe depósitos de todas clases del público: a la vista, de ahorros, a plazos. E incluso emite cédulas o bonos con su garantía, que vende a grandes instituciones, empresas e inversores. También los bancos se prestan entre ellos “efectivo” e incluso acuden al Banco central de sus sistemas para pedir fondos a distintos plazos. Todo este dinero la banca se lo “debe” al público en general. Por ello las partidas que lo representan figuran en su “pasivo”. Por el uso de ese dinero, los bancos pagan unos intereses a sus depositarios (más bien poco) o a sus prestamistas y bonistas (algo más). En este “pasivo” se integrarían también los fondos propios de la banca, siempre una fracción pequeña de aquél, representados por sus acciones y beneficios no distribuidos, que pertenecen (se deben) a sus dueños o accionistas. Llamamos “banca” al conjunto del sistema bancario de un sistema económico integrado. Y, “bancos” al conjunto de estos organismos especializados públicos y privados de aquél.
Una parte de aquel dinero, la banca lo conserva en sus ventanillas y cajas fuertes, formando su tesorería y sus reservas legales y voluntarias. Supongamos que los bancos mantienen como “efectivo” una de cada 5 unidades monetarias recibidas. Las otras 4 unidades de dinero las prestan a diferentes plazos y precios (tipos) a sus “clientes de crédito” o prestatarios: empresas, organismos públicos, bancos y personas, tanto nacionales como extranjeros. Incluso lo hacen comprando bonos y pagarés de empresas y sus acciones y ampliaciones de capital. Aquéllos las usan para sus necesidades y decisiones de inversión, tesorería, circulante y compras al consumo a corto y largo plazo. Las cuales suelen estar por encima de sus posibilidades de reunir medios de pago propios.
Las hipotecas sobre casas las consideraremos dirigidas a una inversión, especialmente en ciertos países. Ya que las personas que las toman creen que si tienen que vender las casas, “siempre” les pagarán más de lo que les costó. Y su valor de uso real, si están bien hechas, se mantiene razonablemente a lo largo de la vida de sus propietarios primeros. Esto significaría que España tendría una tasa de ahorro muy superior a la atribuida por las estadísticas oficiales. Ya que una parte del público estaría ahorrando, incluso por encima de sus posibilidades en un bien del tipo “depósito de valor”. ¿Por qué la diferencia con la estadística? Por una diferencia de criterio, como casi siempre ocurre. Llamo depósitos de valor a los bienes en los que éste se puede concentrar y mantener y aún usar, sin un deterioro apreciable. Las casas (bien construidas y localizadas), las joyas y las monedas antiguas (a su verdadero valor), el dinero (en épocas de inflación moderada) son bienes generalmente utilizados como depósitos de valor por las personas. Y no lo es un coche, incluso bueno y caro, cuyo valor se deprecie exageradamente tras la compra.
Además, una parte del dinero prestado retorna a los bancos, en forma de depósitos nuevos de sus prestatarios. Porque nadie utiliza inmediatamente todo el dinero recibido, manteniendo sólo a mano la cantidad de efectivo necesario para los pagos menores inmediatos. Ni tampoco lo esconde en casa o en la empresa, salvo en períodos sociales catastróficos. Esto va a generar más reservas y nuevo efectivo disponible para prestar o invertir a la banca.
En los libros de Economía general, donde puede acudir nuestro amable lector para ver el cálculo, demuestran que con aquella reserva inicial citada de 1 unidad monetaria de cada 5 recibidas, el conjunto de los bancos puede llegar a dar a crédito hasta 5 unidades monetarias. Más que crear dinero bancario, lo que hacen real y más propiamente los bancos es multiplicar el crédito posible a la sociedad, a la que sirven y de la que se benefician, con su actividad de intermediarios financieros. Nuestro lector habrá intuido que, asimismo, cuando la banca tiene que atender pagos y realiza activos para ello, el conjunto de éstos se contraen entonces en la proporción 5 a 1. Y como una cualidad intrínseca del dinero es que no se puede disipar sin más, por eso llamamos creación de crédito y no de dinero bancario, como le gusta a algunos especialistas, a este proceso esencial.  
Aquellos préstamos en general forman, junto con sus magras reservas dinerarias, el “activo” de un banco. La parte de su balance que él puede utilizar inmediatamente, exigir, realizar o vender a otro en los mercados secundarios o interbancarios. Es muy importante que estos activos sean seguros, cobrables en su momento, buenos. Ya que si ocurre una retirada anómala puntual de dinero por parte de sus depositarios o se le presenta una oportunidad buena de inversión o préstamo, el banco tiene que recuperar el dinero contante, liquidando una parte de estos “activos” o pagar con activos sanos. Además, los banqueros están usando bienes ajenos y deberían actuar en su importante labor con respeto a esta cualidad esencial de su «pasivo«. Si el banco presta dinero para proyectos inviables (los beneficios brutos nunca superarán a los costes de funcionamiento de la empresa) o a gente insolvente razonablemente (al empeñarse por encima de cierto porcentaje de sus ingresos). Cuyo peligro siempre se materializa al endurecerse las condiciones crediticias o económicas, que son cíclicas. ¿Por qué los bancos se aventuran con estos activos y otros compran paquetes de derechos referenciados a ellos, e incluso se los venden a los partícipes de sus fondos de inversión? Porque por ellos se cobran intereses muy por encima de lo habitual o normal del mercado. Es la codicia y el ansia de poder o de crecimiento (el llamado orgánico, sin fusiones o absorciones), en manos de bancarios a los que se les vuelve grande la actividad y el puesto. Y que corrompe y pervierte la función bancaria. Se convierten ésos en «garroteros«, los usureros de nuestro pueblo hispano llano. Pero sin tener los arrestos y los medios convincentes para cobrar como lo hacen ellos.

¿Cómo están ahora los parámetros actuantes de la actividad bancaria? La inmensa mayoría del crédito en general concedido por los bancos es bueno y cobrable. El número real de fallidos de morosos declarados es bajo y controlable. El público en general (empresas. Instituciones y personas) mantiene sus depósitos en la banca y atiende a los pagos, escalonados en el tiempo, de sus préstamos en general o de sus pasivos (pago de servicios, a proveedores, deudas). La liquidez del sistema, el M2 europeo o su equivalente estadounidense, es alta e incluso ligeramente inflacionaria. Y es más que suficiente para permitir realizar todas las transacciones económicas necesarias, que es una de las funciones principales del dinero. Nadie tiene dinero “per se”, sino para utilizar en un futuro más o menos próximo o, al menos, con la esperanza o intención de hacerlo. Otra cosa es que se retenga, que se guarde bajo la cama, se entierre o se encierre en las cajas fuertes de las sucursales. ¿Por qué? Por miedo y desconfianza, que son los demonios del anticrédito. En efecto, este último punto o parámetro, el que falla estrepitosa y esencialmente, consiste en que la confianza, la garantía, la solvencia y la respetabilidad entre los agentes del sistema tienden a 0 aceleradamente.
Y la prolongación de una crisis bancaria, caracterizada por el deterioro y la perturbación de sus actividades esenciales, convertirá progresivamente a los morosos potenciales en reales, restringirá la creación de depósitos bancarios y extenderá en ondas de conmoción los daños por todo el sistema financiero. 
No hay buenas cabezas pensantes escuchadas. Los mandos (no tenemos que escribir leaders) sociales que se arriesgan, no andan con paños calientes, se comprometen y siempre se equivocan algo, son arrinconados, ignorados o no se les deja surgir y actuar. Porque no son políticamente correctos, llenos de talante, buenismo, expertos en comunicación y manipulación de emociones, y usando palabras anestésicas de la acción, el revulsivo y el esfuerzo concertado. Las sociedades nacionales se enfrentan a un problema increíble, impensable hace pocos meses. Y están privadas en estos momentos de una ideología social rectora y orientadora y de unos mandos útiles, servidores y cumplidores.

Los Tipos de Interés y la Liquidez. Otra visión de las Razones íntimas de la Crisis.

Se dice que con la bajada de tipos se inyecta liquidez al sistema financiero, arrugado por la falta de confianza en el prestatario institucional o final. Y todo resuelto. Pues no. Con la bajada de tipos se facilitan los negocios. Los privados, los empresariales y los públicos. Al bajarme el listón de los costes financieros, me puedo entrampar mejor, puedo atender mejor a los pagos de una hipoteca a tipo variable o igual me arriesgo a otra inversión con menor rendimiento marginal (el rendimiento adicional que la nueva inversión me dará). El tipo es una «medida relativa» del valor oficial de los medios de pago aceptados. El Euribor es el tipo del dinero prestado en el mercado interbancario. Y está más alto que el oficial, hoy a 3,75%, porque lleva una prima de riesgo, ante la duda de su cobro a tiempo a mi «colega». 
La liquidez es el M2 europeo o su equivalente estadounidenses: el dinero (alrededor del 8% PIB) y el cuasi dinero: los depósitos y títulos de deuda fácilmente realizables (sin depósitos a plazo). Si no hay medios de pago, aunque estén baratos (tipo de interés) no puedo gastar ni invertir. Donde no hay harina, todo es mohina, dice la sabiduría popular.
Pero ya tenemos liquidez (el M3 (que incluye al M2) está creciendo (a alrededor del 11-12% en los últimos meses) y los tipos están muy bajos. La acción concertada del día 8 de octubre de los principales bancos centrales mundiales, los ha dejado en el 1,5% estadounidense y el 3,75% de la zona monetaria del euro. Entonces, ¿qué nos pasa? Pues que no tenemos confianza en la inversión posible o nos asusta que tengamos dificultades para pagar el préstamo. Y el miedo se extiende como el aceite. La gente maneja números, pero no sabe manejar sentimientos o intuiciones. Porque no se dejan medir. Y se carece de coraje moral y de educación para caminar por esos caminos aparentemente desconocidos.
Los tipos son como el motor y la liquidez, el combustible. ¿Por qué no anda el auto? Porque no tiene piloto: la voluntad del conductor experimentado que lo guíe. Aparte que una inversión productiva no cuaja de inmediato. Una central nuclear se toma 15 años desde que empiezan los trabajos de planificación y decisión. Cuatro legislaturas. Y no se pueden arriesgar, sin un marco regulador asegurado. Hay 25 millones de casas construidas en España. ¿faltan muchas más? Y, muchas han sido compradas a precios excesivos, pensando en que su precio siempre crecería. Yo calculo en 450 mil la reposición normal (50 años de vida media). Hemos estado construyendo 650-700 mil durante tres o cuatro años. Aunque no hubiese sobrevenido la crisis económica externa, ¿la construcción podía producir a los ritmos anteriores por más tiempo?

Algunos corolarios o consecuencias de enorme importancia.

La liquidez absoluta no existe, porque no hay dinero en reservas, o en existencias en los bancos centrales, para atender simultáneamente a todos los depositantes. Ni en ningún banco, ni en ningún país, ni en ningún sistema económico. Esto le pasó al Northern Rock británico, que tenía colas en las ventanillas. En España hay del orden de 2,2 billones de Euros en depósitos bancarios. Las recientes acciones concertadas europeas suponen unos 2,5 billones de Euros para todo el sistema euro. Los estadounidenses movilizan apenas una cuarta parte de esto: 750 mil millones de dólares.

Cuanto más grande o extenso sea un banco es más fácil y probable que gran parte del dinero que presta, retorne a sus ventanillas y sucursales en forma de nuevos depósitos de sus prestatarios. Esto da poder e influencia a un banco. Y no sólo beneficia su cuenta de resustados, ya que las operaciones financieras por las que cobra a sus clientes, tienden a realizarse sin salir el efectivo de sus cajas. Y, así, gratifica con un plus las fusiones y concentraciones bancarias dentro de un sistema económico.
Hay que reinstaurar la confianza en el sistema bancario de cada país. Entonces habrá credibilidad y dinero monetario y crédito en general de sobra. Esto es más difícil en estos momentos, que hace unos meses. Porque el público se está empezando a dar cuenta que su dinero no lo tienen en el sótano de la sucursal. De hecho la morosidad real es mínima aún. Otra cosa es que los prestatarios sean todos morosos potenciales, sobre todo si las economías se deterioran. Y los bancos con los activos cautivos y depreciados no pueden hacen nada. Esto sí que es papel mojado…

Es necesario regular y vigilar que la vocación bancaria emprendedora y socialmente útil no se corrompa y altere, con un comportamiento rapaz, desbocado y codicioso, para el que siempre tendrá múltiples tentaciones. Que exista el importante y necesario equilibrio sano entre su pasivo ajeno y sus inversiones y préstamos, impulsores de la riqueza, el bienestar y el progreso de la sociedad a la que sirven.