The Will of Defense of a Society. 2nd Part.

(FINAL)

And the Strategy, the Operational Strategy and the Tactics, as Levels of its Military Actuation.

 

The Levels of Military Actuation.

The first level of activity in the defense of a society is called national strategy or, also, in a some antiquated form, great strategy. In it are included the economic and diplomatic resources of the State. As part of the resources of a nation to get his great strategics aims in a war.

Resultado de imagen de montesquieu  THE BARON OF MONTESQUIEU.

 

Military Strategy, or simply Strategy, in a great second level of activity, refers to the definition of the larger aims of a war, of an operations theater or of a campaign, including the distribution of the generally scanty military resources used to fulfill them.

Tactics refers to the ideal execution of the combats with an enemy, who opposes with armaments, to the achievement of our strategic aims.

Between strategy and tactics exists an essentially practical space of prominent activity, called the operational level or operational strategy. Its mission is to optimize tactics and the means available in a campaign and in the theater of operations. As such, it defines and conceptualizes the battles, marches, etc., both the military operations and its correct succession, according to those decisive aims. It provides the tactics and the decision, a transcendence far beyond of the pursuit and the tactical exploitation of success. That is to say, operational strategy employs tactics as an essential instrument, combining them to achieve the ultimate objectives to which they are orientated and dedicated to achieving, forming then part of its strategic nature.

 

Thus, the operational strategy defines its own aims in the theater or in the campaign of action, which are the incapacity and disorganization of the enemy by exploiting his strategic and operational vulnerabilities. The first is orientated to reducing the enemy’s combat capacity, seeking to functionally or positionaly disable it, while protecting own’s combat capacity. The second is get by occupying or destroying the enemy’s critical vulnerabilities in the operations zone.

Resultado de imagen de refinería de petróleo OIL REFINERY: SYMBOL OF THE ECONOMIC STRENGTH OF A MODERN SOCIETY.

 

The critics vulnerabilities of the enemy are those whose occupation or destruction produces his serious disorganization and/or the loss of his will of defense. They are those elements, characteristics, possessions that give sense to the fight that he maintains. Its loss instills inevitably in the enemy a sensation of hopelessness and a sense of uselessness in continuing the fight at those moments, except for accumulating more losses.

The critics vulnerabilities are different in each one of the levels of military action, although the effects produced in the superior levels are transmitted to the inferior ones.

A strategic critical vulnerability, handled capably by the Spaniards in century XVI during the conquest of America, was the capture of the great chief or emperor of the indigenous confederations of the great invaded countries (Moctezuma in Mexico, Atahualpa in Peru). But, once turned hostage, the symbolic representation of a leader of this type plummeted, because the social vitality of the community which he directed, demands his renovation, as if he had died.

In II World War, the occupation of the capital and the fall of the government were strategic critics vulnerabilities, to which was acceded through an operational strategy of mobile warfare: spring campaign of 1,940 in the Western Front. The same tried Hitler in 1941 in relation with Moscow in the East front. Probably in that total war, almost of extermination, its fall had not the political importance that was attributed to it. But Moscow constituted a great hub, a railway communications center vital for all the U.R.S.S. at the west of the Urales and, in this sense, it had been a critical operational vulnerability.

To achieve these strategic intermediate aims, the operational level has some specific operational means that are the intelligence, the imbalance and the incapacity of the enemy, the time or speed of the operations and combats, the logistic organization and his physical support or line of supplies and the correct sense of the own command.

It uses these means to drive and to use ideally (and without squandering) the tactical-operational means at his disposition.

Resultado de imagen de reuniones sindicales grandes  THE NATIONAL MORAL FLOURISHES IN ALL THE PLACES OF SOCIAL COEXISTENCE.

These are:

The ground transitability (in the whole geographical dimension of the nature of the areas, climate, station and hour of the day),

the combat capacity (military means made concrete in men, equipment, supports and combat vehicles) and the capacity of operational movement (transport of great and small tonnage, the supplies of all kinds and combustibles and the warehouses and accessible parks in the zone) owns available,

the freedom of action and the «favorable interfaces of action» with the enemy (that exist and that they can also be created always, by means of the extension or decrease of the «field of action» on that, as a tactical operational zoom, or by means of his change to another front sector or in the depth of the enemy zone). With these last 2 «systems» we can act always according to our criterion and interest and not simply react to the actions of the enemy.

This way, the mentioned «operational systems» realize the employment and the functioning of all the levels of the national defense. And they go from the conception and the great creation of aims, interests and available resources, received from the command and the nation, up to its practical final accomplishment. Involving in this also the necessary and the inevitable and imposed by the enemy, tactical employments of the military means, as stages for the ideal achievement of those commended aims.

THE END.

The Will of Defense of a Society.

And the Strategy, the Operational Strategy and the Tactics, as Levels of its Military Actuation

The Ideology or Concept and its Range.

The “will of defense” of a nation is its capacity to cause, create, develop and maintain defense forces. The strength of the defense forces, in turn, rely on the necessary support of the economy of the country and the diplomacy of the state. The will of defense is an expression of the will of being and the vital capacity, even biological, of a society. This concept overcomes and perfects the so called hybrid war or of V generation. That implies and supposes the employment of all his «orthodox and heterodox means of intervention» by the social belligerent group.

Resultado de imagen de GUERRA V generación  IMPRECISE ALLEGORY OF THE FIFTH GENERATION WAR.

 

As the term implies, will of defense is healthy, normal and sufficient when defense forces and the strength of the country’s economy and the quality of state leadership and diplomacy are proportional and adapted to the political objectives of society. These must also be adequate to the possible threats that the country may have to oppose, both within and out the country, within its geopolitical region or other sources of threat. This capacity and its performance in different situations stems from a correct “national moral”.

The will of defense is shaped normally in the Armed Forces, in its capacity of specific instruments of the defense function. The resources of the Armed Forces include the human resources, psychological and intellectual resources and material resources. The basis for the will of defense, the source from which these resources flow is the society itself.

At the level of human resources, troops must have suitable training, the combat readiness and a certain esprit de corps. Human resources are shaped by doctrine, military direction and military moral. So, they can carry out the military operations withstanding the effort and the wear of them, while maintaining their conviction in the missions to which they are assigned.

Resultado de imagen de fuerzas armadas

Materials resources must support the military theory of the Armed Forces and have the necessary technological sophistication to serve the military’s objectives. They include the weapon systems and all the military hardware. All of these resources flow from a society that provides, maintains and nourishes them.

Which is operational about this natural phenomenon of the society’s capacity of defense?

In a modern society, the chain of transmission of the popular will to the Armed Forces, passes through a series of intermediate sociological gears of authorities and institutions. In them, crystallize and fulfill the popular will, albeit with all the shades, errors and deviations, derived from the degree of imperfection of society’s institutional system and of some authorities.

Resultado de imagen de misiles nucleares CHINESE INTERCONTINENTAL DF-41 MISSILES.

 

This implies that a direct military attack on the civil populace, does not debilitate the will of defense already shaped within its Armed Forces. So, military action is better focused on undermining the will of defense of the enemy armies, not on the society from which it springs.

To do this, the immediate goal would be the enemy’s Armed Forces, followed by the political system of the enemy’s country including its political objectives, plans, and alliances, as well as its military and auxiliary industries. Only finally would the focus of attack or pressure be on civilians of the enemy country.

The civil population, which is not intrinsically organized but is dominated by the ideological and institutional apparatus of the state, is capable of absorbing tremendous military blows. Examples of this are the bombing raids that Germany and North Vietnam endured for years. Ultimately, only the invasion of Germany forced its surrender. There is also the case of Iraq which was submitted to a kind of military siege in which its people were impoverished. Still, the Iraqi regime was even stronger than at the end of the allied invasion in the winter of l991, having suppressed internal opposition from Shiites and Kurds and having attracted the support or admiration of its resistance in the Arab world. Despite the first war against Iraq and the following siege, Iraqi’s did not rise against their political institutions and the content and expression of Iraq’s national will of defense was not altered. In the most radical case of a nuclear war, great civilian losses would occur initially, yet if the Armed Forces remained relatively intact due to defensive deployment and protection measures, it could prolong the defense of its country and even win.

This brings us to time as the environment in which the will of defense is expressed, and whose “effective factor” is “national moral”.

In effect, the will of defense is constructed in the time. And to destroy it requires actions within time. Those engaged in insurrection come to understand this point well. That a prolonged war directed at the source of the will of defense, the country’s people, will in effect attack the country’s national moral.

The National Moral, source of the Will of Defense.

The “national moral” is the collective conviction of how best to live by following historically-proven trends of peace, progress, own satisfaction, service and justice. This certainty is assumed by a society as its own vision, or conception of its destiny.

When individuals or groups do not subscribe this vision, or when they pervert it, the quality of national moral can deteriorates and often produces messianism. But, without illusion and enthusiasm, societies cannot achieve or create beneficial enterprises. Enthusiasm is a force of spirit, which conquers moral and ideological entropy (that is inevitably generated in societies), enlightened by a «reasonable illusion«.

Resultado de imagen de lideres mundiales THE DOCTRINE OF XI JINPING «illuminating» Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. IT WAS INCLUDED IN THE CONSTITUTION OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY. ONLY MAO AND DENG XIAOPING DESERVED SUCH AN HONOR.

 

When leaders also are in tune with the right social trend, and with the wishes of their people, a moral community is established between leaders and their people, that harmonizes and promotes national and social feelings. This process is the origin and creator of the national moral of societies and is at a different qualitative level than that of purely biased, ethnically-based or group-based interests.

There is an ideological creation from the people and to the people, which reason is that it most be in favor the people. Still, this process remains subject to deviations and historical aberrations.

The process of creating the national moral are positive when leaders act collectively with honesty and inspire their people to follow «correct ways» of living, within all the possible ways of living available to them. This implies and demands a certain ideological control on the part of the state’s leadership, which is one of its main functions. Abuses of this responsibility are best represented by Hitler’s Minister of Propaganda, Mr. Goebbels; the political deputies and the party structure for the proletarian dictatorship with Stalin, etc.

Resultado de imagen de winston churchill

The natural organs for forming and transmitting the “national moral” are far removed from official propaganda offices. The reason is that the natural organs that generate national moral are found in the nuclei of society’s collective action and in its natural and institutional leaders. That is to say, the spaces in which national moral is created are homes, schools, churches, political parties, unions, working centers, and associations in general, etc.

After the battle of England, Churchill said that the future generations would say that «that one was our more glorious hour». This was possible thanks to an unbreakable social discipline, which was not ensuing from the study of manuals of civic education, but of the follow-up of a model spread by infinity of personal testimonies. The diffusion of the moral model of the citizen owed in a great extent to the educational labor of the Anglican Church.

The own Montesquieu admitted that the republican virtues only existed in the tales of the antiquity. This way, they were attractive to a leader minority, but his adoption by the citizens could not be done by legal or constitutional mandate. The moral theoretically proposed values, were seen as something artificial and remote. Without real connection with a practical and known moral code, highlighted with alive examples that could be follow.

(TO BE CONTINUED)

 

The modern Hybrid Warfare. 3rd. Part.

(THE END)

The Multifunctional, Total or Multisubject Wars.

In general, the attacks are realized to the software of a system, looking for a «weakness» of this one. And using the malicious codes, the back entrances, etc. A penetration or attack to the software is prevented in general with an antivirus adapted to the received virus. To attack the hardware is necessary to act on the «physical component» of the computer. And his detection, with the nowadays existing miniaturization, turns out to be very improbable and long in the time, until the devastation is detected. The best way of acceding to the hardware is realizing the intrusion in the factories of components and of assemblies. But these are protected by control measures of components and external equipment, based on the nationality and the producer of them.

The cyberattacks go to cybernetic networks of the society, both public and private, to the communications and means of control of equipment and networks. Becoming concrete definite in the facilities of different out-standing or strategic sectors of a country or alliance; like, industrial centers, military communications, administrative public negotiations, social opened networks, energy distributors, intranets of banks and economic means. And they seek to paralyze or to disturb the functioning of them or to distribute in them more or less opened tendentious information, to alter or to direct the public or particular general opinion in favor of the interests not always evident of the attackers.

Resultado de imagen de ataques ciberneticos mas famosos

The cyberattact is a «total attack» of swarm type; that is, of multiple and simultaneous or sequential character. It is directed on the economic, administrative, civil and military structures, which hold and allow that a «social group» should work. It is a «form of fight» in the cybernetic area. Where «one» seeks «to occupy» tactical or strategic «advantageous positions«. And «to damage» the enemy, preventing him from keep his pace, his «habitual tempo» of functioning and stealing and depriving him sometimes of the costly goods of research and development created by him. And that were allowing him to keep a competitive advantage in national «intervention means» in the industrial, economic and military fields. A branch of the cyberattack is the industrial espionage.

With them is achieved to seriously concern and debilitate the diplomatic, economic, military and civil sectors of a society. In the civilian is the original humus, the social essence, as creator of the «national morale» and the «will of defense» of the social group. Being those sectors the «means of intervention» with which a State counts for his global, holistic defense, against the aggression and external and internal dangers.

It is known the supposedly American attack using an advanced virus against the software of the Iranian centrifugal machines. That were operating to separate the isotopes of the Uranium 235 and Uranium 239 (not fissionable), using his different “molecular mass”. Seeking to obtain U235 enough pure to create «self fissionable critical masses«, the explosive of the atomic bombs, for his supposed nuclear devices. As the % of purity between an industrial use, to generate electricity, for example, and the great purity that needs a «critical mass», both «activities of successive enrichment» are perfectly recognizable by the foreign intelligence. In May, 2010 it was detected by the Iranians a malicious virus, called Stuxnet, in the of Nataz’s nuclear station. And that gave to a thousand of them the «order» of self-destructing. But, already in January of this year, the inspectors of the Atomic International Energy Agency (the AIEA) and the Iranian technical personnel had detected that many centrifugal machines were working slowly or badly and without a certain motive.

Resultado de imagen de ataques ciberneticos mas famosos

China takes a privileged singular position as a «great universal factory» in the global economy. And the same sells cheap products of immediate consumption on a large scale, that compete principally in price, which makes already products of high added value with the most modern technologies. This allowed him to lead one of the most significant and consistent cases of cyberattacks on a large scale against a country or coalition. The history was published by Bloomberg.

The agents of a unit of espionage and cybernetic war of the Chinese Popular Army managed to place some malicious «components» in the motherboards of IT equipment of the Supermike company, of San Jose, California. Who buys to Chinese factories, which have, in turn, subcontracts and suppliers of components in China. This way, the IT equipment with this «Trojan horse» allowed the cybernetic Chinese spies to accede for 3 years to industrial and governmental secrets of the EE. UU.

The anomalies emerged in 2015, when Elementary Technologies, who was designing software to compress files, reported of them in the baseplates of his cybernetic servants. Around 30 technological companies existed, between them Amazon and Apple, and diverse agencies of American intelligence, «invaded» in the Chinese attack. It was verified that the cybernetic servants of Elementary were mounted by Supermike, which is the major world producer of cybernetic servants.

It was found that some plates of the cybernetic servants had installed a «perfected component» that did not appear in his design and that it was not a chip. This multifunctional «foreign corps» would have been placed in 4 factories of China that mount the cybernetic servants of Supermike.

Resultado de imagen de ataque chino al hardware THE SUPPOSED CHINESE COMPONENT INTRODUCED IN THE HARDWARE.

The physical interventions in the hardware are more difficult, because all customers theoretically verify the equipment that they make or buy. Attack to the other people’s hardware foreign are doing usually during his traffic from the manufacturer to the client. That is the method that the American agencies use. But this malicious and comfortable manipulation of the Chinese spies can be effected because China is the great manufacturer (with license or without her) of hardware (computers, mobiles). And the directors and controls of his factories collaborate of well or badly degree with the «requests of the authorities», in a wide sense.

And, finally, some days ago was important the recidivist case, still not close, of the Chinese giant of the telecommunications Hua Wei. This way, the agencies of intelligence of the U.S.A- has warned that must not be used the products and services of Huawei and ZTE. Accusing that the terminals of these brands might be working as «cybernetic concealed agents«, spying for the Chinese government. Also, the Pentagon has prohibited to his personnel to introduce in the military bases the products of these brands.

China, as a great power example, of realizing his own and adapted «combinations» of means of intervention in his different stages.

Imagen relacionada CHINA’S ASPIRATIONS…

One first Chinese national foreign objective is to promote the multipolarity in the world structure of the great powers and his allies. Looking that does not exist a world hegemonic power, like the USA, that hinders him in the extension of his influence and power from his «nodal center«.

For it, he will create alliances and will establish agreements with others countries in detriment or in substitution of that hegemonic power. And he will be a «obstructionist intransigent actor» in all the actions that that power promotes unilaterally in the international forums (UNO, Atomic International Energy Agency). This way, the actions of the western nations in the Syrian conflict were frustrated and limited by the systematic veto of China to his approval in the Security Council. Though the Chinese communists consider to be out of the fight for the direct influence in the Moslem Middle East. And, the Chinese decision to renew his relations with the Sub-Saharan Africa, it was partly a strategic corollary of the «war to the terror» of the USA and the NATO in Middle East, as supplier region of crude oil and gas to the whole world.

Resultado de imagen de china poder político militar A CHINESE NAVAL GROUP OF STRATEGIC PROJECTION SAILS IN THE CHINA’S SOUTH SEA, AFTER CROSS  THE TAIWAN’S STRAIT.

China is for Russia and Russia is for China a partner, competitor and rival, if it is worth this polyvalent definition, which does that none of the expressions is in fullness. Both are «emergent powers«, according to the new nomenclature, determined in growing, in not get damage directly for the moment and in eroding the hegemonic power and his Europeans allied.

This way, the Chinese would not act directly, not by third interposed countries, in Syria, in the boiling cauldron of the Asia of the Southwest, scene of the global contest that sunnis and Shiites develop for the control and the supremacy in the Islam. But they will do it collaborating up to a point with the interests and the diplomatic propositions of the Russians. Reinforcing this way a political common position of counterweight and neutralization of the influence of West in the zone. And in exchange for a certain Russian reciprocity in favor of the Chinese interests, in other countries in which do not shock the national influences of both. Resultado de imagen de china Paracelso y Spratly. A CHINESE NAVAL BASE OF MISILES IN A SMALL ISLAND OF THE PARACELSO’S ARCHIPELAGO .

A strategic exterior Chinese preference goes towards the Indian subcontinent and to the nations of the first Asian circle of terrestrial and maritime nearness. The India is a radical rival at his measure, with whom it beared several frontier wars in the middle of the 20th century. The India has a political structure more advanced than China, the liberal participant democracy, still in spite of all his contradictions, ethnic, religious and social discrimination and lacks of all kinds. And it possesses a demographic strength that overcomes China’s people grow. Though lately the Chinese begin to realize the irrational of his «pseudo scientists» methods of the control of the birthrate. That the communist China applied in altars of a material rational progress. Progress which only enjoys in diverse degrees at the present, the members of the communist party and his families, the technical personnel who design, stimulate and develop it, the chiefs and officials of the armed forces and a minority of entrepreneurs and men of business. That have prospered at the shade of an institutional inveterate clientele of the mentioned public elites.

At the west of China, close with his Sinkiang’s immense region (Xinjiang), in the Oriental Turkestan, there is a rosary of former soviet socialist republics of 2 thousands Km long, that get until the Caspian Sea. They are, from east to west, Kazajistan, Kirguistan, Tadzikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. And there form these countries a monolithic set of several etnias, gathered in the names of them, but extended over several simultaneously, of Turkoman origin, of the central steppes of Asia. And agglutinated also by his belonging to the Islam sunní. All this form a multinational defensive and refractory shield to the expansive activity and to the significant presence of the Chinese in his internal matters or in his exterior trade, always with effects of political guardianship. These Turkoman Muslims are rather potentials allied of the Great Russia, with only she puts a bit of care and dedication to attract and to attend them.

Imagen relacionadaCHINA PROJECTS IN  AFRICA HER ECONOMY AND INFLUENCE. DISPLAYING HERSELF AS A COUNTRY THAT NEVER WAS COLONISLIST.

Another great strategic preference of Beijing is to extend his influence and increase the economic and diplomatic bows with the development nations, specially those who have «natural resources and primary cultures«, that are necessary for the manufacturing production, the supply and the general development of the nations. She has taken it even far beyond his geographical borders of political influence or strategical military.

With the interminable income of his exports and with the knowledge of the development in many areas, China does intelligent and massive strategic national «landings» in diverse countries of Africa and Spanish America. With them it establishes «binding alliances» of backing, advising and support. Trying to anchor firmly and creating allies or «friends» by all this world in development. 

Going firmly by the political, economic, diplomatic and military way of turning to what China really seeks to be:

one (or the) hegemonic power in the 21st century.

 The litigious, even violent, and, at least, very menacing, that China keeps with the countries of the East Asian, demonstrate how awkward, despotic and subjecting can be his presence in the short distances. When China thinks that com into play his national interests or his national pride. Whose loss in hands of the «foreign powers» until almost middle of last century, is one of the neurotic tics of the exterior politics of Beijing, from October 1, 1949.

In the Sea of the South of China, this power is expansive and hegemonic. And keeps litigious more or less important with the rest of the Asian countries bathed by this sea. That are The Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

This sea has 3500 thousands Km2. And China thinks that it is his «Second Persian Gulf«, for the sub aquatic oil and natural gas deposits, existing and estimated. For comparison and perspective, the Mediterranean Sea only has 2500 thousands Km2 and his coasts bathe to 24 countries in three continents. None of which is hegemonic or expansive.

In order to settle itself in the «disputed archipelagos«, China follows a strategy of small and consolidated advances. Installing in them, in islands and rocky islands, military air or naval bases and extending the logistic capacities of some of them, substracting area to the sea. This has forced to some coastal countries to realize occupations in the islands of his regional seas. Destined, rather, to indicate his presence and sovereignty.

Two of the most showy cases are the archipelagos of Spratly and Paracelso.

The Spratly has hundreds of islands and rocky islands spread by more than 400 thousand Km2, near the Philippines. In relation to this archipelago, the Court of Arbitration of The Hague already pronounced that does not exist a legal base for the Chinese claims. And that the Spratly are not islands with economic projection. But, China, simply, does not recognize it.

The Paracelso’s archipelago, at 700 Km south of Hong Kong, is placed at the west of the southern Sea of China, in the entry of Tonkin’s gulf (Vietnam). There, China has crude oil platforms in dispute with the Vietnamese government. Near the Chinese facilities have been diverse incidents between the Vietnamese fishing boats and patrols and the Chinese ships of escort. That have dispersed them using water cannons.

News on Modern Conflicts. Novedades en Conflictos Modernos.

Utilizamos esta Sección de Novedades para dar a conocer en avance los próximos artículos que irán apareciendo en las distintas «categorías» de temas de esta página, dedicada a conflictos y crisis modernos.

THE MILITARY SURPRISE: concepts, effects, realization and types.

This way, this surprise less elaborated conceptually produces fewer fruits that have operational or decisive transcendency. Everything indicates that, in order that it should take place and increases qualitatively the transcendent efficiency in our actions, it is necessary that the quality of the surprise reaches another dimension in his action.

It is necessary, so, in the operational level of the surprise, that this would be an «ungrateful surprise» for the enemy. That has catastrophic effects, though they are local, on him. And that the «commotion waves» in the area or the affected sections, propagate for the enemy military system attacked. Damaging his capacities, his general and grupal moral (a section, the fighters of a weapon) and his intentions and perspectives. It would be equivalent, in the raised scene, to an «exploitation of the success» of our actions. That are encouraged and perfected by the operational surprise obtained.

The following battle during World War II illustrates the use of unexpected «field of action» on the enemy, and the use of ordinary and heterodox forces. That allowed General Walther Model to take the initiative and destroy a Soviet army inserted in his operational rear.

LA SORPRESA MILITAR: conceptos, efectos, realización y tipos.

Así, esta sorpresa menos elaborada conceptualmente rinde menos frutos que tengan trascendencia operativa o decisiva. Todo indica que, para que se produzca y aumente cualitativamente la eficacia trascendente en nuestras acciones, es necesario que la calidad de la sorpresa alcance otra dimensión en su acción.

Es necesario, pues, en el nivel operativo de la sorpresa, que ésta sea una “sorpresa ingrata” para el enemigo. Que tenga efectos catastróficos, aunque sean locales, sobre él. Y que las “ondas de conmoción” en el área o las secciones afectadas, se propaguen por el sistema militar enemigo atacado. Dañando sus capacidades, su moral general y grupal (una sección, los servidores de un arma) y sus intenciones y perspectivas. Ello equivaldría, en el escenario planteado, a una “explotación del éxito” de las acciones propias. Que son animadas y perfeccionadas por la sorpresa operativa conseguida.

Veamos un ejemplo de cómo el empleo de un “campo de acción” inesperado para el enemigo y el uso apropiado de las fuerzas ordinarias y heterodoxas, con sus respectivas características de actuación, permitió al general Walther Model, tomar la iniciativa, crear una sorpresa ingrata y destruir un ejército soviético insertado en su retaguardia operativa.

Qassem Suleimani, la Espada Desenvainada del Imperialismo Iraní

Hacia las 0:30 hora local del viernes 3 de enero de 2020, los EEUU mataron al general Quassem Suleimani cuando se retiraba del aeropuerto de Baghdad, a donde acababa de llegar en un vuelo directo desde el aeropuerto de Damasco. Se emplearon en el ataque dos drones Reaper, probablemente de la CIA, que lanzaron 4 cohetes Hellfire II AGM-114 de cabeza explosiva (H.E.), guiados por láser, (nombre, el “Fuego del Infierno”) sobre los dos vehículos sin especial blindaje, que los llevaban a él y a sus 9 acompañantes a Baghdad.

Introducción.

El Oriente Medio es la región geopolítica más convulsa y furente de nuestro mundo. Y por su cercanía, importancia energética y formar un nudo de comunicaciones entre tres continentes, es especialmente trascendente para nosotros. En esa región del Suroeste de Asia se dirimen varios conflictos armados y paralelos.

LA EXPLORACIÓN Y LA INTELIGENCIA COMO SISTEMA OPERATIVO.

La exploración y el reconocimiento del terreno generan información de los diferentes niveles de actuación militar. Entonces debe ser convertida en inteligencia. Ésta es el conocimiento razonablemente fiable y suficiente del enemigo, de sus intenciones y capacidades, y del terreno en sus posibilidades de lucha, transitabilidad, etc. Que nos permitan tomar una resolución fundada sobre el empleo de nuestros medios y de las formas de lucha, en función de nuestros objetivos.

THE SOCIAL PROPAGANDA. CHARACTERISTICS AND MEANS.

Being an eminently practical phenomenon, the praxis of propaganda is defined by «norms or principles of action«.

Propaganda must be «simple, easy.» Both in its structure and in its concept and transfer to its «objective.» Therefore, the basic concepts of our doctrine and interests must be sought and exploited with it. And state and present them in a clear, easy and appropiate manner. Both in the words (texts and slogans) and in the images we use for their diffusion and impregnation in the social group. And taking into account the means employed and the immediacy and depth that our ideas have to acquire in the group to which are directed.

LA PROPAGANDA SOCIAL. CARACTERÍSTICAS Y MEDIOS.

Al ser un fenómeno eminentemente práctico, la praxis de la propaganda se define por unas “normas o principios de actuación”.

La propaganda debe ser “simple, sencilla”. Tanto en su estructura, como en su concepto y transferencia a su “objetivo”. Por ello, se deben buscar y explotar con ella los conceptos básicos de nuestra doctrina e intereses. Y enunciarlos y presentarlos de una manera clara, fácil y oportuna. Tanto en las palabras (textos, consignas y lemas) como en las imágenes que empleemos para su difusión e impregnación en el grupo social. Y teniendo en cuenta los medios empleados y la inmediatez y profundidad que tengan que adquirir nuestras ideas en aquél al que van dirigidas.

La Voluntad de Defensa de una Sociedad.

Y la Estrategia, la Estrategia Operativa y la Táctica, como Niveles de su Actuación Militar

Llamamos “voluntad de defensa” de una nación a su capacidad para propiciar, crear, desarrollar y mantener unas fuerzas de defensa, que cuenten con el apoyo necesario y sinérgico de la economía del país y de la diplomacia del estado. La voluntad de defensa es una expresión de la voluntad de ser y de la capacidad vital, incluso biológica, de una sociedad.

Este concepto supera y perfecciona a la así llamada guerra híbrida o de V generación. E implica y supone el empleo de todos sus “medios de intervención” ortodoxos y heterodoxos por el grupo social beligerante.

Como tal expresión, será sana, normal y suficiente, cuando las fuerzas de defensa y el apoyo diplomático y de la economía nacional que se les brinde a aquéllas, sean adecuadas y proporcionales a los objetivos políticos de la sociedad. Y también, a las posibles amenazas que tenga que soportar, tanto desde el interior de su territorio como desde el exterior, bien de su región geopolítica como de otras.

Esta capacidad y su actuación en los diferentes casos brotan de una “moral nacional” correcta.

The Will of Defense of a Society.

And the Strategy, the Operational Strategy and the Tactics, as Levels of its Military Actuation

The “will of defense” of a nation is its capacity to cause, create, develop and maintain defense forces. The strength of the defense forces, in turn, rely on the necessary support of the economy of the country and the diplomacy of the state. The will of defense is an expression of the will of being and the vital capacity, even biological, of a society. This concept overcomes and perfects the so called hybrid war or of V generation. That implies and supposes the employment of all his «orthodox and heterodox means of intervention» by the social belligerent group.

As the term implies, will of defense is healthy, normal and sufficient when defense forces and the strength of the country’s economy and the quality of state leadership and diplomacy are proportional and adapted to the political objectives of society. These must also be adequate to the possible threats that the country may have to oppose, both within and out the country, within its geopolitical region or other sources of threat.

This capacity and its performance in different situations stems from a correct “national moral”.

The modern Hybrid Warfare. The Multifunctional, Total or Multisubject Wars.

Now, closing the historical and definer curl, the wars of V generation are called hybrid or multi functional wars, which, really, always have existed. With the major or minor participation of each one of the «available means of intervention» (Foreign Relations, regular and irregular Armed Forces, Economy, Cybernetics, etc) in the social group, to obtain the «functions of intervention» search for. Forming a “means” mix, adapted to all situations and confrontation theaters.

Not for nominating nowadays with an exotic and new word, preferably foreign, one makes this way a «mean or a function of intervention» fresh and promising. The problem is that the ignorance of the history, still the recent one, impoverishes the new concepts, ideas and situations of conflict. Without winning in application, efficiency and cognitive capacity with it. With this, only it falls or repeats the previous history, returning to learn it. And that, as in a spiral screw, only changes the phenomenon temporal «plane of execution«. Where are kept safe and now partly secret, the different «essential parameters» of the phenomena of the conflicts and fights.

La Guerra Híbrida moderna. La Guerra Multifuncional, Total o Multidisciplinar.

Ahora, cerrando el bucle histórico y definitorio llaman guerras de V generación a las guerras híbridas o multifuncionales, que, realmente, siempre han existido. Con la participación mayor o menor de cada uno de los “medios de intervención” disponibles (Relaciones Exteriores, economía, cibernéticos, Ejércitos regular e irregular, etc.) en el grupo social, para conseguir las “funciones de intervención” buscadas. Formando un «mix de medios», adaptado a los distintos teatros y situaciones.

No por nominar hoy en día con una palabra exótica y nueva, preferentemente extranjera, se crea así un “medio o una función de intervención” fresco y prometedor. El problema es que el desconocimiento de la historia, aún la reciente, empobrece los nuevos conceptos, ideas y situaciones conflictivas. Sin ganar en aplicación, eficiencia y capacidad cognitiva por ello. Con esto sólo se incide o se repite la historia anterior, para volver a aprenderla. Y que, como en una hélice helicoidal, sólo se cambia el “plano de ejecución” temporal fenoménico. Donde se mantienen incólumes y ahora ocultos en parte, los distintos “parámetros esenciales” de los fenómenos y epifenómenos de los conflictos y luchas.

Reflections about Spain and Catalonia

The nation is one and unique by essence. And it arises from the commitment of the citizens to live in community. And it is kept and preserves in the defense of this union, which is loved, against his enemies of inside and outside. A nation is provided with one social politics selfconsciousness. And collaborate to create and support it the history, the tradition and the customs, and the own language and moral sense. And contribute secondly to it the own ethnia and the territory, that not always exist, specially the first one. This way, the territory of a country is not a nation. Nor it is not the inarticulate population of a territory under an only one government.

Though the territory that occupies is necessary to give a nation the possibility of supporting a social administrative structure, that guarantees the exercise of his sovereignty. In a nation fit several not antagonists ethnias. Because his base is the life together conviviality, the respect and the rights and duties for all. And so long as they love this «harmonic set» of persons and his well-being, peace and jointly progress destinies.

When the nation is loved by his components and there exists in them the desire to serve and defend her in community, the concept of the mother land appears. Both ideas are interrelated essentially. And, the absence of the patriotism or the shame to practise it by members of a «social political community», leads to the defenselessness and the dismemberment of his nation, in major or minor degree. Being formed then «groups of associate individuals» with dissolvent ideas and interests of the naional group.

It is not of surprising that the Defense Forces of a nation are, as institutions and in his members, which hoist, teach and practise the patriotism, as one of his essential virtues. Because it is possible only to die for what is loved. The Defense Forces of a nation are the specialized set of the «nationals or patriots» for the belligerent and complete Defense of his «national country«.

Reflexiones sobre España y Cataluña

La nación es una y única por esencia. Y surge del compromiso de los ciudadanos de vivir en comunidad. Y se mantiene y conserva en la defensa de esa unión, que se ama, contra sus enemigos de dentro y de fuera. Una nación es dotada de una auto conciencia socio política. Y colaboran a crearla y vertebrarla la historia, la tradición y las costumbres, y la lengua y el sentido moral propios. Y contribuyen en segundo lugar a ello la etnia y el territorio propios, que no siempre existen, especialmente la primera. Así, el territorio de un país no es una nación. Ni lo es la población inarticulada de un territorio bajo un único gobierno.

Aunque el territorio que ocupa es necesario para darle a una nación la posibilidad de mantener una estructura socio administrativa, que garantice el ejercicio de su soberanía. En una nación caben varias etnias no antagonistas. Porque su base es la convivencia, el respeto y los derechos y deberes para todos. Y con tal de que amen ese “conjunto armónico” de personas y sus destinos de bienestar, paz y progreso en común.

Cuando la nación es amada por sus componentes y existe en ellos el deseo de servirla y defenderla en comunidad, aparece el concepto de la patria. Ambas ideas están interrelacionadas esencialmente. Y, la ausencia del patriotismo o la vergüenza de profesarlo por miembros de una “comunidad socio política”, lleva a la indefensión y a la desmembración de su nación, en mayor o menor grado. Formándose entonces grupos de individuos asociadoscon ideas e intereses disolventes del conjunto nacional.

Genesis and practice of the Russian strategy of deep attack.

The Soviets tried to have a scientific unbeatable study for his military art. Like his social economic doctrine was based on the supposedly scientific postulates of Marx and Engels. Taken to the practice by the Bolsheviks led by Lenin. And achieving an undoubted success in the stages of conquest of the Power and his indefinite and ferreous maintenance, the phases of force and oppression, by the central and inevitable postulate of the proletariat dictatorship.

One of the paradigms of his military doctrine was the attack to the deep rearguard of the enemy. That is the low abdomen of his military deployment. There, the units have his refuge, his site to rest and, also, to reform or to be equipped; from there they begin the marches to form his assault deployments near the lines.

To seek for the attack at these enemy areas, without combat availability and much more vast and vulnerable than that he presents near the front, was a characteristic of the military Soviet theory.

We will see here how this was generated and was implemented. Creating for it, the appropriate specialized units and the successive adjustment of the strategic previous ideas. Up to having, in 1944 and until the end of the war, 6 Tanks Armies in the order of battle of the Soviet Army, new name of the Red Army of Soldiers and Peasants. Those were endowed with the most prepared soldiers and the best equipments and logistics support of the USSR.

And we will see how the friction, the failures and the human mistakes, the exhausting efforts of the commands, the central direction without clear and elaborated criteria (inevitable initially to any doctrine) and the climatology, do that the studied and implemented plans are scarcely fulfilled in the practice, after the first days of operations.

Génesis y praxis de la estrategia de Rusia del ataque profundo.

Los soviéticos pretendían tener un estudio científico imbatible para su arte militar. Al igual que su doctrina socio económica se basaba en los postulados supuestamente científicos de Marx y Engels. Llevados a la práctica por los bolcheviques liderados por Lenin. Y logrando un éxito indudable en las etapas de conquista del Poder y su mantenimiento indefinido y férreo, las fases de fuerza y opresión, a través del postulado central e inevitable de la dictadura del proletariado.

Uno de los paradigmas de su doctrina militar era el ataque al interior de la retaguardia del enemigo. Que es el bajo vientre de su despligue militar. Allí, las unidades tienen su refugio, su sitio para descansar e, incluso, para reformarse o equiparse, desde allí comienzan las marchas para formar sus despliegues de ataque.

El buscar el ataque a estas áreas del enemigo, sin disponibilidad para el combate y mucho más extensas y vulnerables que las que presenta junto al frente, era una característica de la teoría militar soviética.

Veremos aquí cómo ésta se generó y se fue implementando. Creando para ello, las unidades apropiadas especializadas y el ajuste sucesivo de las ideas estratégicas previas. Hasta tener, en 1944 y hasta el final de la guerra, 6 Ejércitos de Tanques en el orden de batalla del Ejército Soviético, nuevo nombre del Ejército Rojo de Soldados y Campesinos. Aquéllos estaban dotados con los más preparados soldados y los mejores equipos y logistica de apoyo de la U.R.S.S.

Y veremos cómo la fricción, los fallos y los errores humanos, los esfuerzos agotadores de los mandos, la dirección central sin criterios claros y elaborados (inevitable al principio de toda doctrina) y la climatología, hacen que los planes estudiados e implementados apenas se cumplan en la práctica, tras los primeros días de operaciones.

THE HATE, THE  WAR  AND  THE  EVIL

The Hate is always an untidy passion. What might arise initially in the soul as competition and emulation, ultimately displays as distaste, repugnance or rivalry. It is a primary reptilian feeling of survival, compound or mixed with the dread and the rage towards other one, which is perceived as foreign, different and menacing. So, the hate expresses always as negative and destruction, still potential.

The mental Gordian knot of the hate, only can be cut by the collective overcoming. And this is carried out personally, exercising a broad mindness generosity and the personal effort of overcoming and oblivion the circumstances that shaped «that situation«.

The War arises in the armed collective clash. In the violent dialectics of two social rivals groups. That employ the weapons for the attainment of certain aims, which are exclusive for both.

Other one of the vices that the «civilized» members of the tribes have acquired is the excessive greed. And with her, her corollary and the easy way to satisfy her, the rampant corruption. The social equality in the tribes, his «ideological rough republicanism», was guaranteeing the use and reasonable enjoyment of the resources by all the members.

The Evil is conceptually the lack and the denial of the good, which is the only virtue or effort (as stable and permanent value) that is positive. And the primary negative force that generates the hate in a wide sense, not necessarily violent, is the one that gives force, life and permanency to the evil of the man.

The Evil as concept, as immaterial entity, needs from instrument, a vector, a vehicle, to display in our physical world. And this material vehicle is provided by the untid and uncontrolled passions of the men, already dominated and dragged by the hate and his corollaries passions. In which and by means of them, the Evil displays enslaver, overflowing and superhuman.

The putrid, inhuman, insane ideas come from the sewage, pits and black wells of the human intelligence and soul. And they are the valid, sure and permanent instrument for the periodic manifestation of the Evil within the humanity. This Evil, unattainable for the reason and the human capacities, is the temporal manifestation of the Misterium Iniquitatis.

EL ODIO, LA GUERRA Y EL MAL

El Odio es siempre una pasión desordenada. Lo que podría surgir inicialmente en el alma como competencia y emulación, se manifiesta al final como aversión, repugnancia o rivalidad. Es un sentimiento primario, reptiliano, de supervivencia, compuesto o mezclado con el temor y la ira hacia el otro, que se percibe como ajeno, diferente y amenazador. O sea, el odio se expresa siempre como negatividad y destrucción, aún potenciales.

El nudo gordiano anímico del odio, sólo se puede cortar con la superación colectiva. Y esto se lleva a cabo personalmente, ejerciendo la generosidad de miras y el esfuerzo personal de superación y olvido de las circunstancias que conformaron “esa situación”.

La Guerra surge en el enfrentamiento armado colectivo. En la dialéctica violenta de dos grupos sociales rivales. Que buscan por las armas la consecución de determinados objetivos, que son excluyentes para ambos.

Otro de los vicios que han adquirido los miembros “civilizados” de las tribus es la codicia desmedida. Y con ella, su corolario y su modo fácil de satisfacerla, la corrupción rampante. La igualdad social en las tribus, su “republicanismo ideológico”, garantizaba el uso y disfrute razonable de los recursos por todos los miembros. Y el zakat o limosna canónica musulmana y el apoyo de su colectivo suplían los casos de orfandad, viudedad, enfermedad, calamidades, etc.

El Mal es conceptualmente la falta y la negación del bien, que es la única virtud o esfuerzo (como valor estable y permanente) que es positivo. Y la fuerza primaria negativa que genera el odio en un amplio sentido, no necesariamente violento, es la que da fuerza, vida y permanencia al mal del hombre.

El Mal como concepto, como ente inmaterial, necesita de un instrumento, de un vector, para manifestarse en nuestro mundo físico. Y este vehículo material se lo proporcionan las pasiones desordenadas e incontroladas de los hombres, ya dominados y arrastrados por el odio y sus pasiones corolarias. En las cuales y mediante ellas, el Mal se manifiesta avasallador, desbordante y sobrehumano.

Las ideas pútridas, antihumanas y vesánicas provienen de las cloacas, de los pudrideros y pozos negros de la inteligencia y del alma humanas. Y ellas son el instrumento válido, seguro y permanente para la manifestación periódica del Mal en la humanidad. Este Mal, inasequible para la razón y las capacidades humanas, es la manifestación temporal del Misterium Iniquitatis.

THE SPANISH NACIONAL POLITICS

A STERILE AND INEFFECTIVE INSTRUMENT

The dispersion and inefficiency that the authorities show in the complex labor of uniting the popular wills and in implementing clear policies of reinforcement of the national unity and of control of the hackneyed and unsuccessful ideas of dissolution and substitution of that one, have different original reasons.

A nation does not congregate and galvanize, re-joins and advances with procedure, laws and regulations. Called to juridically confine the public thing. A nation is not governed in times of dangers and incipient decadences only by the economic and accounting ideas and policies. That only serve to create and preserve the material wealth. But that at least nowadays can not avoid the hardness and the cruelty of the phases of crisis and decadence of the economic successive cycles. That literally can crush the collaboration between the social strata and deepen their differences. And these policies are bored, affected and pissquiets. Because the action of the money, which is his essence, has these natural qualities.

This makes and defines a rachitic, defensive politics and without worthy horizons of the best efforts. And, also, serious and reliable of the duty. As serious and reliable were Cervera’s, when they sank his fleet in Santiago de Cuba and Montojo’s, when the same thing happened to him in Manila to his Spanish fleet of the Pacífico, presences.

The lack of virtues in the exercise and the example of the power and the leaders, have drained and withered the right of the country, as political national instrument.

LA POLÍTICA NACIONAL ESPAÑOLA

UN INSTRUMENTO ESTÉRIL E INEFICAZ

La dispersión e ineficacia que demuestran las autoridades en la compleja labor de aunar las voluntades populares y en implementar políticas claras de refuerzo de la unidad nacional y de control de las trasnochadas y fallidas ideas de disolución y sustitución de aquélla, tienen varias causas originales.

Una nación no se congrega y galvaniza, se reune y avanza con normas, leyes y reglamentos. Llamados a encorsertar jurídicamente la cosa pública. Una nación no se gobierna en épocas de peligros e incipientes decadencias solamente con las ideas y políticas económicas y contables. Que sólo sirven para crear y conservar la riqueza material. Pero que ni siquiera hoy en día pueden evitar la dureza y la crueldad de las fases de crisis y decadencia de los ciclos económicos sucesivos. Que literalmente pueden triturar la colaboración entre los estratos sociales y ahondar sus diferencias. Y esas políticas son aburridas, melindrosas y meaqueditas. Porque la actuación del dinero, que es su esencia, tiene esas cualidades naturales.

Esto crea y define una política raquítica, defensiva y sin horizontes dignos de los mejores esfuerzos. Y, también, seria y cumplidora del deber. Como serias y cumplidoras fueron las presencias de Cervera, cuando le hundieron su flota en Santiago de Cuba y de Montojo, cuando le ocurrió lo mismo en Manila a su flota española del Pacífico.

La falta de virtudes en el ejercicio y el ejemplo del poder y de los gobernantes, han drenado y agostado a la derecha cabal del país, como instrumento político nacional.

REASONS AGAINST A WAR WITH NORTH COREA.

Being afraid of an imperialistic aggression, the authorities of the Party of the Workers of North Korea (or Choson Rodongdang) and of his Armed Forces (or Inmun Gun), can perceive as the only escape from his chronic evils, to undertake a «revolutionary war of national unification«. What possibilities are of this happens? We examine afterwards the parameters of the «North Korean problem» and his “ways of develpoment» of his conflicts.

Introduction.

On June 25, 1950, Kim il Sung’s North Korean troops invaded South Korea, with Stalin’s approval, to realize by the force the reunification of the peninsula of Korea. That was divided in two countries with faced ideological regimes from the end of the World War II. The United States surprised in the first moment, came rapidly to help the South Koreans. The support of the People’s Republic of China, which sent trained forces in his recent civil war, and the military systems and equipments delivered by the USSR to the communists, allowed to reach a stalemate without victors by 1953. In July of this year, a truce was signed in Panmunjong, that not an end of the war. And the 38º north parallel was established as the border between both nations. A blood river of was spilt by all the actors only to keep the prewar situation.

Resultado de imagen de kim il sung KIM IL SUNG, THE FOUNDER OF THE DYNASTY.

To celebrate on Saturday, the 15th of April, the 105 º anniversary of the birth of il Sung, the «Father of the Mother land», Kim Jong-un prepared a great cake. That was luminous, shining, with his 105 «rockets candles» ignited. Jong-un does not want to be unworthy in anything to his dynasty and is playing like thunderer Jupiter, threatening with his atomic weapon and ballistic missiles of the first generation. With them he would have to face unfavorably and without possibilities of victory the modern combined weapon systems of the United States. It might damage very much South Korea. But it would not give him the victory and would affect all the Koreans.

The ideology and his Practice in North Korea.

To foresee the seemingly capricious and erratic behavior of the North Korean elites, it is necessary to know the ideological and psychological parameters of such catechized, closed and organized into a hierarchy society. And these parameters stem from the Marxist Leninist postulates. According to the interpretation and the applications realized during the Stalinist regime in the USSR. Finally, the most mellow communist ideology put in scene by the North Koreans, leads them to the use of expressions and linguistic turns, unusual and inexplicable, according to our forms of expression and formation of the thought.

Resultado de imagen de kim jong un

The North Korean direction aspires to the absolute unit of his strategies, his doctrine, his organization and his plans. In the North Korean terminology, the “Monolithism” represents a social politician structure as the granite, with absolute internal homogeneity and external unity of action. A «Structure» lacking fissures, across which the enemy could penetrate and damage it. There does not exist a significant or radical distinction between the peace and the war in the national North Korean strategy. Both are «phases» of the national politics, with different participations of the Inmun Gun. This is the Korean name in of the Armed Forces of North Korea. This way, the political, economic and military strategies are ways of the total North Korean strategy.

The leaders of North Korea consider, deriving it from the Soviet Stalinist strategy, that the North Korean strategy possesses an orientation and a style of exposition and formation for his plans and decisions. His foundation is the «supposedly sensible and scientific» calculation of the «correlation of forces» between the North Koreans and his enemies. This forces relation or ratio is a deliberate and calculated check of the potential relative capacities between both rivals, for the different conflict situations.

The North Koreans prefer obtaining his aims by pacific means. But the determinism of the dialectical materialism leads them to believe that the wars are inevitable, while the social classes, the existing oppressions between them and the imperialistic countries. Or, since in the last 65 years, they are surrounded with capitalist States, subject to the successive phases of growth and decadence in his economic cycles. The North Korean elites, with his special and distinctive psychology as mental vital substratum and with their ideology and the whole resounding paraphernalia where it expresses, do not wonder if they will have or not an external conflict. But, what kinds of conflict is it more profitable for us to destroy the enemy? And, in addition, who can triumph over whom in every case?

And they consider that, in agreement with the premises and the development of the dialectical materialism, that the successive clashes of the social antagonic oposites (those who are incompatible and/or not complementary). That are arising progressively and successively, as the historical materialism describes, finally will give them the reason. And they will obtain the victory over the stupid and decadent Yankee and Japanese imperialisms. To facilitate the things and as shallow and pale approximation, we can say that the historical materialism is as a Marxist description of the events or general History and that the dialectical one is as a scientific theory of the creation, development and solution of the social conflicts (that are all).

Resultado de imagen de kim jong un

We believe that the nuclear weapon is not more than a North Korean bet for covering all the «fissures», before a hypothetical imperialistic threat (of the hostile foreigners) against his regime.

Exposition and Development of the Situation.

Several are the reasons that dissuade the North Koreans from the preventive or initial use of a military assault.

The first in practice is the nearness of China, his principal support and mentor, that embraces the whole north border of the country. Though China does not be affected directly by the scanty atomic fires that cross the Korean peninsula, the radioactive clouds can reach his territory. And to damage his industrial factories and his external and internal sales, so much if pollutions take place, as if are rumors on them. Also China, as the only ground border, would receive a chaotic and important flow of Korean refugees.

China is today a state controled democracy of manufacturers and merchants. China has a modern dictatorial political system (of an only party); that is controlled and directed by an elite that supposes 10% of his population. China is one of the principal world economies: it has around 4$ trillions (million of millions) in American debt, with what he finances his principal world importer. The Chinese middle class is increasing, prosperous and forceful and is overwhelming affiliated to the Chinese Communist party. Very expressively, these elites of any economic system, also add up 135 million Chinese, around 10% of his population. There are not far ago the times of the cannibalism and of the successive famines and penuries in the lands of the Middle Kingdom. But, already many Chinese have known and enjoyed the innumerable goods that the modern capitalism and the industrial system produce. And, though their distribution between the population classes and the exports is yet very asymmetric and deficient, the Chinese do not want to risk getting lost them.

Resultado de imagen de nivel de vida China ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA.

And let’s remember that, in spite of the proliferation of the atomic and thermonuclear weapon during the 40 years of the cold war, no country of the so called Socialists or Popular democracies used them ever.

A psychological basic reason is that the Leninist Marxists look for the paradise in this Earth. That only will bring them a society without classes and without oppressive State, at the end of the times. After many, many, many generations of the «new man». Mao Ze Dong calculated that «there would be necessary more than ninety». «Long you entrust me it, Sancho». And if they lose this survival opportunity by a devastating war, they get totally bemused. And they are kidding themselves.

To any normal or delirious, even primitive religion, has never guessed to offer the paradise here. There are two cases in which the nuclear weapon can be used without ideological obstacles or preventions. The islamist jihadists offer the Paradise to the martyrs of the Yihad. With which they give the security to his believers in the future and solve their problems in this » tears valley». The Israelites consider themselves to be the people chosen by Jehova. And this has not changed opened and directly by Him. For them, the Christianity is a religious diversion, a blasphemous schism. They have the security of Jehova’s promises to Abraham, to Jacob and to Moses. In this exclusivity of the God’s favors, is based his void proselytizing interest. This way, it is not important for them to face a nuclear holocaust. If the existence of his nation, always threatened by his anxious and not democratic neighbors, meets irreversibly threatened. For example, losing a conventional war against the always surronding Muslims.

Resultado de imagen de Consejo Defensa Corea del Norte THEY FAIL TOO MUCH…

A total war with crossing of nuclear volleys with the enemy, would be hiper asymmetric against the elites of North Korea. That would lose everything what they possess and wish: the life, the exercise of the almost all-embracing power and a top living standard, in quality and variety, to that of their compatriots. Of future life, nothing. Therefore, it would go against the natural existing drives in all the men to tackle it in these lamentable conditions and with these apocalyptic perspectives. This one should be the principal reason to remove the adventurous deviationist, initiating this war, from the leaders of North Korea. So, largely, the Initiative, at his level and perspective, would continue in hands of the Maximum Leader of the Revolution of the United Workers and Peasants. The «Dearest Fatty» and his National Defense Council.

Orography of the conventional ground Conflict.

Korea is a mountainous peninsula. A central mountain chain crosses it from north to south, with its maximum heights overcoming 2000 ms. And forming, specially in the north, numerous and narrow valleys. These are orientated principally from north or northeast to southwest. The plains spread in the west of the peninsula, up to the coasts of the Yellow Sea. North Korea, therefore, does not present many favorable areas for the maneuvers of the mechanized forces. These can be easily canalized by broken areas and with short or half sight domain.

Resultado de imagen de Consejo Defensa Corea del Norte A FORMER NATIONAL DEFENSE COUNCIL…

The natural obstacles can be reinforced by abatis, vertical cuts, numerous and small minefields, etc. They are natural areas for the employment of the antitank rejection, based on the hollow load missiles with varied effective shooting distances, got ready with a defense at charge of light infantry units. In support, a well protected and camouflaged artillery, with the enemy approximation avenues and the important or singular points of the area registered before. The flanks of the defense positions can rest on the compartments of the area that form the heights lines.

The Russia of Putin. 2nd. Part.

(FINAL)

In the great core of the Russian Federation, Putin practises an internal centripetal strategy. It is the complement of the expansive exterior strategy that we have just seen. Both form another pair of “complementary but not antagonistic opposites”. That can stem from the philosophy of the “dialectical materialism” (his core of ideas) and the historical one (his practical application and his evolution). This internal social strategy seeks to keep and extend the hegemony of the Slavonic oriental etnia, which is more than 85% of his population, and his centenial civilization. And incorporate into her everything possible of the ethnic and religious minorities of his geographical periphery. The Turkoman are 8,5%, the inhabitants of the Caucasus rise to 3% and those of the Urals, 2% of the population. Russia combines very well the strategic means at the disposal of the State, realizing with them combinations, «mixes», adapted to every external conflicting situation. For example, to uncontrollable countries with the USA, as some Spanish-American nations, he can offer them modern armament.

Putin bet for the Economy and the Diplomacy in Spanish America.

The president Putin is using all the resources and means of the global world, to extend with surprise, skill, conviction and security the influence of Russia all over the world. This way, in August of 2012 Russia stopped being the only world power out of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and turned to be the 156th partner of the institution. Which mediates in the conflicts between countries and establishes the basic procedure of the international trade. The equipment of the president Putin bet for the integration, to be between whom formulate the rules of game. And to have legal instruments against the protectionism, which stops the Russian exports to the European Union and the USA. The Russian secretary of Economic Development, Andrei Belousov, declared that the WTO gives instruments against the monopolies and the disadvantageous contracts and facilitates the participation in international projects. This way, he said, «it gives stability to the exterior trade and makes predictable the juridical conditions of the operators».

The central idea of this commercial penetration and his perspectives is that the USA never trusted in the Spanish-American armies, they did not even collaborate seriously with them. The applied cliche, even after pompous «Alliance for the Progress» of the president Kennedy, is that the Spanish-American armies are «minor partners» of the Pentagon. And, these armies must fulfill police-military local functions: to attack the insurgency, to monitor the borders, to control the territory. In the conference of Defense Secretaries of the countries of the Western Hemisphere celebrated in 2002 in Santiago of Chile, Donald Rumsfeld, secretary of Defense of the USA, declared: «One of the principal threats for the national security of the USA consists in the fact that the «Latin-American» governments cannot control his own territory, especially the remote, frontier territories. Of what the terrorists take advantage. Because of it, the task of every country of Latin America lies in strengthening the control of their own borders».

Resultado de imagen de Putin Erdogan Maduro in World Congress of the Energy in Istanbul

Till now, the Pentagon does not even propose to debate with the Spanish-American military men the creation of a system of regional security. The Inter-American Agreement of Reciprocal Assistance does not work, when it would be more important: in the conflicts of interests between the “high contracting parties», supposedly equal and associate. This remained demonstrated in the War of the Malvinas between Argentina and Great Britain. In that occasion, the USA and Chile supported Great Britain. Russia found this way a commercial and ideological niche, neglected by his more serious and nearby competitors. And where he is presenting a wide, interesting and permanent offer for an opened collaboration with his clients during an indefinite time.

The modern trade of Russian weapon and complex systems, his partial local manufacture, the temporal transfer of equipments and supplies, while this is not in march and the integral and constant formation of the users are the characteristics of the way decided by Putin, to increase the influence and the rooting of the Russians in Spanish America. A geopolitical zone that is distant and is very different of Russia in civilization. This way, the Russian vice-minister of Defense Anatoly declared that «Our external politic, is not only to sell products and finished equipments in the exterior, but to go to the joint production and develope the technician-military cooperation». He added that, » We are for it finalizing several documents, including the protection of the rights of intellectual property. The worry is that we will share reserved information. And the strategic association implies a major volume of the confidence, a major degree of cooperation, included the supply of weapon and special sensitive equipments. And this needs a certain level of the relations between both countries». Russia is the second weapon systems seller in the world.

The pirouettes of Vladimir, the new Czar of the «Only Russia».

The civil war of Syria was dangerously languishing from the last quarter of 2014. After three years and a half of the beginning of the conflict, the course of the war was determined by several different, simultaneous and synergics parameters.

Resultado de imagen de syrian army SYRIAN SOLDIERS SALUTE TO CAMERA.

The National Syrian Army of al-Assad was physics and morally exhausted. No more than 50 thousand men are now in his ranks.

The USA had intervened with few results, less opportunity and scanty commitment and decision in the conflict. Using the air ground support in favour of the moderate insurgents; facilitating them intelligence and punctual supports with limited aims of his elite forces. And successively training several groups or contingents of those, which were finishing, the majority of the times, joining the islamist radical insurgents. As the Front al-Nusrah for the Liberation of the Peoples of East, of Mohamed al-Golani, the delegate of al-Qaeda in Syria, now called Front Fatah al-Sham; the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria of al-Baghdadi; the Islamic Front anti al-Nusrah; the Army of the Conquest, who was operating at the east of Damascus, etc. And the USA was not daring to imply more in the civil war.

 Resultado de imagen de russian bombers in syriaRUSSIAN AIR BASE (SYRIA)

The unsteady and elusive politics of the USA in Middle East and concretely in Syria, created an «emptiness of power» that the Russian autocrat proposed to occupy. This time, he waited to assure him that the USA was not and they were not even waited there. In effect, the Americans neither had consistent allied rebels (with duration, stability and solidity, in conjunction) on Syria, nor were possessing own deployed forces. And the hereditary tyranny of al-Assad was, since the epoch of daddy Hafez, a systemic enemy of Israel and the USA. That included it in the list of destabilizing States of Middle East and sponsors of terrorists (Black September, Yasser Arafat’s al-Fatah, Hezbollah, etc.)

Fatah flag.jpg AL-FATAH’S COAT OF ARMS

Russia was seeking to justify a mediating and relevant paper in the damned board of the regional powers in the Southwest of Asia. Also his military intervention was going to assure an increased sponsorship on Syria, with the elevation of his military bases in the country to permanent. And neither the life, nor the personal and familiar sufferings of the Syrians were mattering for him, if they were converting into an obstacle to his political or military operational strategy in the defense of Bachar al-Assad.

This demonstrated, in a brutal and sociopath way, the degraded use of the heavy fire support that Russia gave to the attempts of al-Assad for recovering Alepo «at all costs». A siege without fissures (operational, not physical) of the city was not realized, nor an attack of combined forces to the irregular rebel forces that were surrounding and partially occupying her. The military Russian doctrine would praise this. But, the easy and sure thing was to shell up to the exhaustion the supposedly rebels positions. That were firmly intermingled with the houses of the upset neighbors of Alepo. But, destruction is almost metaphysically impossible. The buildings, walls and squares turn by the heavy fire in accumulated debris; these are grinded little by little in smaller debris; and, then, in stones and smaller stones. The same thing happens with the human bodies. And the rebels can slip away by tunnels, trenches and alleys between the walls of the buildings. But they do not take the civilians with them. And largely it is for the enormous logistic hindrance that they suppose for them.

 

Putin also receives «in kind» for the «favors and helps» that he grants. Russia is planing to increase the capacities of his naval base in Tartus, Latakia, Syria. That Russian will turn this way into a «naval permanent base» in the Mediterranean, fulfilling this way the dream of the Great Russia, previous to the USSR. The documents of transfer and installations are already prepared for his signature. The superstructure will possess docks, systems of detection, control and command and of anti-aircraft defense (against planes, drones and rockets) and antiships (of surface and submarines), stores, quarterings, etc. To all it is necessary to add the ground defense units of, his quarterings and warehouses, the fixed and of mines barriers, the network of roads and the advanced mobile and in prepared positions defense. This way, already at the beginning of October, 2016 there came equipments of the S-300 anti-aircraft Russian system, that deploys for the first time out of Russia. Also the nearby air Russian base in Hmeydin, one of that integrate the «network of bases for the air operations» in Syria, will be turned into an «air permanent base». To allow to increase the air sheltered fleet, her installations and her contingent for crew, support and defense.

 Resultado de imagen de russian bombers in syriaRUSSIAN BOMBERS HIT USA SPONSORED GROUND BASE IN SYRIA.

The meeting of the XXIII World Congress of the Energy in Istanbul, initiated on Monday, the 10th of October, 2016, allowed the bilateral meeting of the presidents Vladimir Putin and Erdogan. Russia and Turkey, from the middle of last July have brought over positions, smoothed the previous pitfalls and increased their collaboration bonds. Both presidents signed there the agreement for the construction of the Turkish Steam gas pipeline, which will join both countries across the Black Sea. And that will supply Turkey up to 63 billion m² of natural gas annual, when it is operative. The president Maduro, whom the president’s position and to exercise the succession of a «chavism» without Hugo Chávez are too great for him, did all possible during the summit conference to tie personal and institutional bonds with both chief executive men.

Erdogan assured that «Turkey will reinforce all the economic, energetic and of tourism bonds with Russia». His relations with the USA. and the European Union have substantially weakened in the last months. In spite of being Turkey a strategic ally of both within the NATO and of being a (eternal) candidate for the entry with full right in Europe.

Also Maduro celebrated his personal meeting with Putin. When in November, 2015 a Russian bomber was beaten on the northwest of Syria, close to the Turkish border, the Venezuelan governmental press took sides for Russia. Echoing the speculations on the incident and the accusation of Moscow that Erdogan was supporting in certain ways the ISIS. Given his systemic hatred with the Kurds of the YPG (the Kurdish Syrian party, to which he systematicly accuses of relations with the terrorist Kurdish PPK of the southeast of Turkey) and his pursuit of his «peshmergas» or Kurdish soldiers, who join the militias of self-defence of the Syrian Kurdish territory.

Resultado de imagen de Putin and Maduro Istanbul PUTIN WILL HELP MADURO AGAINST BAKERIES’ MAFFIAS…

The meeting was ending on Wednesday, the 12th of October. And, so much Putin as Maduro were waiting that in his conclusions and final record, was remaining clear a producers’ new alliance of crude oil («emergent countries»), which was seeking to stabilize the production of crude oil and his prices during a sufficient period of time. Some projections were overcoming a five years period.

These totalitarian, subsidiary States of Russia, need to affirm his identity, for questionable and/or perverse. And they do it replacing, in his cases, the real capacities of his mentor (military power, natural resources, armament industry) for a major radicality and a fervent enthusiasm in his attitudes and actions in the public thing or res publica. What takes them, in some moments, to flee ahead, without knowing well were they will come. The doubtful and/or contradictory attitudes and actions, in some moments, prove this. It suits to examine the erratic Turkish exterior politics in the last 4 years, in relation to al-Assad, the Kurds of the YPG and of the Autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq, al-Qaeda, the collaboration with the USA and the Islamic State.

Only Putin keeps a line and a conduct enough constant and coherent in the public topics, exterior specially.

Resultado de imagen de russian bombers in syriaRUSSIA USES CARPET BOMBING IN SYRIA.

The implication of the political and strategic interests of Russia in Syria has taken him to veto in the Security Council of the UNO, the recent offer of France for a ceasefire in Syria. Presented after the failure of the agreement of September, 2016 between the USA and Russia. That was aborted by the Russian bombardment of a marching group of humanitarian help from the Turkish border towards Alepo’s northwest. And by the bombardment of the USA to positions of the Syrian National Army (SNA) at the south-east of Zeir er Zour, the capital of province placed at Palmira’s North-East. And also motivated by the qualitative and quantitative accumulation of misdeeds against the civilians. Realized by the ground support aviation of Russia and Syria and by the Syrian heavy artillery. Against the neighborhoods at the west of Alepo and over the approximation routes to her, from the North-East (Idlib’s province) and the Turkish border, used by the rebels who fight in the city.

On the other hand, France insisted on treating with Russia the ceasefire in Syria. Which was out of the programmed topics for the visit of Putin to Paris at Wednesday, the 19th of October. And Russia answered on Tuesday, the 11th, by the spokesman of the Kremlin, that Putin «decided to annul the visit … and he will go to Paris when the president Hollande feels comfortable».

THE NATIONAL STRATEGY OF RUSSIA.

The first national foreign aim of Russian is to promote the «multipolarity in the world structure» of the great powers and his allies. Looking that does not exist a world hegemonic power as the USA, which hinders her in the extension of her influence and power from his «Euro-Asian center». For it, she will create alliances and will establish agreements and treaties with third parties in detriment or in substitution of that hegemonic power. And she will be a «intransigent obstructionist actor» in all the actions that this unilaterally promotes in the international forums (UNO, Atomic International Energy Agency).

 NOTHING CALMING…

Another great strategic preference of Moscow is to extend his influence and to enlarge the economic and diplomatic bonds with the nations in development, specially those who have «natural resources and primary crops», that are necessary for the manufacturing production, the feeding and the general development of the nations. She has taken them and will take them even far, beyond of her geographical borders of political influence or military strategic.

The loss of her «controlled allies» in the Warsaw Pact and the COMECON, after the cold war, only leave Russia to geographically look for «new influences» towards the Central Asia, from Syria to the India and Vietnam. Turkey is a proverbial enemy of the Russians. In Afghanistan they could never have situated. Which is social political constant for other powers that have tried it in other moments. Also the Russians try to win and to keep in his «political and commercial sphere» the new Central Asiatic Islamic Turkoman republics and to the ex-Soviets Slavonic republics, these with almost none possibilities.

In the Turkestán Oriental, one finds a rosary of former Soviet socialist republics of approximately 2 thousand Kms of length, which reaches up to the oriental shore of the Caspian Sea. They are, from east to west, Kazajistan, Kirguistan, Tadzikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. That form a set of several ethnics, gathered in the names of them, but simultaneously extended over several countries. That are of Turkoman origin, from the central steppes of Asia, and agglutinated also by their belonging to the sunni Islam. These Turkoman Muslims are potentials allieds of Russia, in all that this puts a bit of dedication and neatness to attract and to attend them. And, till now, the Customs Union created by Russia includes only the White Russia or Byelorussia and Kazajistan. In addition, Russia has signed military agreements with Byelorussia, Armenia, Kazajistan, Kirguistan and Tajikistan. Established in the frame of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). And that guarantee to these countries at the East of Europe and in the Central Asia a defense against external or internal aggressions. And they offer to Russia an extension of her international influence.

PRESIDENTS OF RUSSIA, BIELORRUSIA, KAZAJISTAN, KIRGUISTAN, UZBEKISTAN, ARMENIA AND TAJIKISTAN ASSEMBLED FOR ANTITERRORIST COOPERATION .

If Russia thinks that there are at stake her national interests or her national pride, it proves to be stuck-up and deigns and, even, aggressive. One of the neurotic tics of the exterior politics of Moscow is the dismemberment of the Soviet empire 25 years ago. That many attribute, not to her implosion, for lack of resources and economic expired structures, and of social motivation. But to international abuses, which benefited of her relating to the moment weakness.

When the Russians meet strategic international problems, they demonstrate more freedom of action, initiative, creativity and flexibility in his offers and actions. Russia uses the whole set of means and capacities of a modern State to go forward, to tease, to complicate and to deactivate the actions and the resources used by the West. This way, Russia uses the propaganda of State, employing: a great profusion of audio-visual communications, which we do not know in Spain; immediate refutations of the rivals’ arguments; employment of credible arguments to deny her relation with the observable facts; sending of humanitarian help in great and showy caravans to the zones in conflict. The diplomacy, where there faces John Kerry, a provisional struck politician, with Serguei Lavrov’s extensive career, and keeping meetings and visits with western chief executive agents and of the regional involved countries; doing declarations and agreements, which ended suspended, protested or broken; realizing attempts of bribe to European politicians of second level. The economy, as in the cases of China and of Spanish America. And answering to the western sanctions for her militar actions in Ukraine with measured suspensions and charges of her European imports, which are afraid by the Europe of the merchants. Military, sending: «paramilitary voluntary» forces; regular forces and military modern equipments, sometimes accompanied by the experts in their using or for their training; delivering weapon and military material to hier sponsored; and realizing «diffuse violations» of the air space of the countries at the west of her European border, more concretely in the Baltic sea and his coastal countries.

KERRY AND LAVROV.

Not they all are goodness and advantages in a super presidential regime. The concentrated and decisive power has to be administered in small doses, not to abuse, neither to damage, nor to fall down in the temptation of looking for his indefinite continuity. The despotism (that arises from the rotten conviction of the commands that «they» have «saved» a «his» mother land), the corruption and the clientelism, spread over the power circles and his boundaries, become manifest and customary in the society. The political and ideological opposition, with his critiques, parliamentary actions and street protests, can become almost unbearable. For whom are centered in planning, deciding and executing in altars of the people, but not with the people. The jail and the properties confiscation are reprisals used in all the times, which its origin gets lost in the night of the times, in the prehistory. Used against the dissidents, uncontrollable and disobedient and for all the potential (imagined or not) and real enemies of the regime.

In her relations with the West, Russia distinguishes two great «geopolitical spaces»: the USA and the European Union. The USA is the great rival, but not yet enemy. With that she tries to compete and whom she tries to erode in all the occasions to which she can reach. Russia follows the politic strategic theory of the multipolar world. That would possess several great «radiant centers» of influence and control. Where there would no be hegemonic global powers, which they could control and/or dominate more or less, according to their interests. This global strategy is well see by all the continental and, yet, regional powers, that possess sufficient capacities and international aspirations of projection and ascendancy.

Before the united Europe, Russia is seen herself as an equal. The first one exceeds her in demography and in economic capacity. And Russia has to her favor an AAFF, even the Branch of Strategic Missiles, sufficient and with only one Command. That are supported by her economy and diplomacy. Since she possesses a political, enough monolithic or integrated leadership. That, before a confrontation or an arisen opportunity, can operate with more major forcefulness and rapidity that the endogamic and paralyzed bureaucracy of the Union Europe. And opposite to the great geopolitical region of the Eastern Europe, formed by her former allied in the Warsaw Pact and the Comecom (the former economic communist union based in the specialization in national activities), has to act with a strategy of successive actions or of the artichoke. Because an excess of «pressure» over them, only would achieve that they agglutinate between them more; and link themselves more economic and militarily to the western nations…

But, also Russia uses the more or less veiled interference in the internal matters of her rivals. Seeking to create social problems and centrifugal trends, still heart-breaking, in their social fabric. Taking advantage for it of the freedom of expression, which is one of the values of the western civilization. This way, Russia acts against Europe supporting the most promising solvent movements. Some are populist and antisystem, which operate against the shared values and beliefs, which shape and form the western civilization. Others are nationalists and sovereignists, that fight against Europa’s multinational integration and his construction. This way, in Germany Police has materialized an «alliance» between the Youths of the Party Alternative for Germany (AfD) with the Young Guard of Russia. The man of connection between Moscow and the AfD is his vice-president, Alexander Garland. That re-joins regularly with Alexander Dugin, a man with the confidence of Putin. And the members and Euro MPs of the AfD support the movement of British euroexceptics and hinder the approval of the measures for the European construction in the Eurochamber of Brussels.

The political military extern action.

The operational strategy of Russia consists in acting by means of «emphasized» allies in a given geopolitical theatre. This way, she regionally uses these «interposed actors», more or less strong, independent and «sovereign». In order that they give her in the intervention in the conflict, (that her is seemingly foreign, as Russia is a middle-high continental power), a stamp of international category and legality and of reliability and seriousness before the international community, specially with the not western countries.

Also Moscow acts in the «diffuse external limits» of his former «imperial living space». She does it «supporting», with a great range of possibilities, almost made-to-measure, at different Russian or Christian communities, which are «separated» from the mother land. This way, there are some republics or «ethnic communities», apart from the two that we will mention in the case of Georgia, which receive the opportune help of Russia. They are the Transnistria, of etnia Russian, placed at the East of Moldavia, which is of Rumanian population, and Nagorno Karabaj, where live the karabajos Armenians, that is in the center of Azerbaijan, which is of sunni religion. Azerbaijan is frontier with Russia and with Turkey and receives the support of the last one.

Georgia:

In 2008, in her asymmetric and overwhelming war against Georgia, Russia was served by the «independentof South Osetia and Abjasia (embraced at the North-East of the Black Sea), two «rebels» Georgian provinces. The pretext was to come to the defense of these nations, which had many Russian habitants, to defend them from the Georgian «arbitrarinesses and assaults». Already existed since years «Russian forces of pacification» in Ossetia of the South, which immediately took sides with the independents.

GEORGIAN TROOPS BAIL OUT A VEHICLE AT OUTSKIRTS OF GORI

Ukraine:

Following his direct, imperious and operating manners, in the middle of December, 2013, Putin threw a strong bet to Ukraine. In order that she was happening to form part of the Russian «sphere of coprosperity«: Putin offered her to lower 33 % the price of transfer of the Russian gas, of which Ukraine is recipient and reseller. And, to save her from the financial bankruptcy and she did not have to be thrown for it in hands of the Community Troika, he would yield her until $15 billions in beneficial credits. But, in Ukraine the social politics problems arisen have led to a strong polarization of the country, being formed two almost antagonistic halves. Where the part al the west of Crimea, wants to move away from Moscow and the half at the east of this peninsula, seeks to increase the bonds with Russia. Ukraine is for history and demography part of the Europe limited at the east part by the Urals. And Ukraine is by political opportunity and historical moment, part of the democratic and liberal western center Europe. That forms together with the United States, which operates as another fundamental «vibrant pole» at the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the «Western Civilization «.

For Russia, Ukraine is something more than a strategic ally. Ukraine is a part of the national Russian essence. In Ukraine was born many hundreds years ago, the strong and promising germ of the Russian nation, the Rus. And Russia has bet high. Trying to return for his rights, traditions and influences. Or she will have to accept with turning into a «national state«, without «coprosperity sphere» dependent, participative and profitable for all. So, a «regional or second-class power», as named her the president Obama at the beginnings of this crisis.

From the spring of 2014, the opposition armed in the Novarussia (this way, the prorussians separatists autoname his territory in the basin of the Donbass and adjacent zones) is supported by the Russians. That openly send military equipments (intermingled sometimes with convoy of humanitarian help for the civil population of the region); groups of internationalists «volunteers»: Cossaks, Russians, even prorussians veteran Chechenians; specialists (engineers, gunners, instructors, servants of short range missils and of anti-aircraft weapons, elite forces) for the high level military tasks. And pressing the central Ukrainians in the common border with movements and parkings of her motorized troops, at the west of Rostov on the Don. It deserves indicating that Novarussia’s republic is not internationally recognized.

The «national rebels» and the central government of Kiev, with the president Petró Poroshenko at head, have followed till now an operational strategy of give and take, of the strategic «cachumbambe«. Where everything is enough measured and reasonably controlled. To be advancing each part by short and few steps. Without the beast of the open warfare between nations and alliances irreversibly runs away. And so we are and will continue for long time. This way, the points of the Agreements of Minsk are dissolved and in «stand by» or in neutralized wait. Looking that do not break them, for the continuous small violations of the truce agreed by the parts.

POROSHENKO AND PUTIN…

A great problem appears now, not only to Ukraine, but to his neighbors at the east and west parts. And it is to obtain that the today antagonists and irreconcilable forces, that face in Ukraine, crushing his mother land, turn into complementary and necessary forces between them. And it is a great joint, disinterested labor, with height sights and directed by statesmen, which is necessary to develop to obtain it. In the case of not be obtaining this «merger of interests», the alternative would be bad for all, nationals and nearby and distant neighbors. And the wound only would be falsely closed and for an unforseeable time.

Syria:

From the beginnings of July, 2015, the Russians have been increasing his military direct presence in Syria. His armed forces have established themselves principally in the Latakia, covering Tarsus’s surroundings, his only naval base in the Mediterranean and his military airport. They include fighter-bombers, assault and carrier and rescue helicopters (with a centener of machines always operational), not driven aircraft of reconnaissance and bombardment and the corresponding ground units of support and of security. And now, from the ends of September, they are bombarding the positions of the armed rebels to the regime of al-Assad, at Alepo’s southwest; in the Latakia; near to Hama, Homs and Damascus, in the basin of the Orontes; in Idlib’s province and in the Turkoman zone close to the border; in Raqqa and other positions of the IS, in the North-East of the country and in the great desert of Syria. Recovering Palmira at the end of March, 2016, which fell down in May, 2015 in hands of the Daesh or ISSI. A spokesperson of the Russian Defense Department declared that «they would not operate there indefinitely» and that they were calculating that they would need «approximately 100 days» of air assaults. These days have doubled, up to almost the spring of 2015, before Putin was initiating a partial and sufficient withdraw of his military means. The Kurdish peshmerrgas of the YPG, the national allies of the USA, deployed by the whole center oriental border with Turkey, have not been bothered by the Russians. Between those who have suffered his unexpected assaults are the irregular forces of the Front al-Nusrah for the Liberation of the Peoples of the East, the national subsidiary of al-Qaeda. So dangerous and ideologically radical as the muyahidines of the Islamic State, but less cruel and less capable militarily.

To the reproaches of some western countries against this intervention, Putin and Lavrov argued that the «multinational Coalition of the 60 allies» was coming bombarding the salafists jihadists from September, 2014, without having for it a mandate of the UNO. Sure that Obama’s coalition was attacking in Iraq, with the theoretic and «previous daily permission» of the Iraqi government. In fact, the general of four stars James Terry, who is the chief of the American forces in Iraq from November, 2014, acts as an undeserved speaker for his high graduation, with the government and the discredited armed forces and Iraqi militias. But the assaults on Syria of the allies were not possessing the consent of his regime. And were going operationally supporting the peshmergas and debilitating the ISSI. Let’s emphasize that the Russians, as the mentioned leaders have justified themselves, «are very polite and are operating in Syria for invitation of his government».

It is of remembering that Syria was during decades the allied one in the Middle East of the USSR, and today, of Russia. And that Syria was considered also during decades a terrorist antiwestern state. Of the style of North Korea. That literally flooded the whole geopolitical Islamic region with the assault rifles AK and the grenade-launchers of hollow load RPG, for the guerrilla groups of “popular liberation”.

FRIENDS FOR EVER…

Russia wants to recover her international protagonism and respect. In spite of her diminished demographic, economic and structural capacities. And her loss of prestige democratic and politic, gained with the conflict of Crimea and Ukraine. But, with the military intervention in Syria, Putin attacks the root of the problem of the “fled Syrians”: that is the pressure of a cruel and long civil war on them. And it allows him to calm the Europeans with the short-term containment of the massive and constant invasion of those. Looking for an attenuation of the economic sanctions of the European Union to the government of Putin for his shameless actions in Ukraine.

Russia also supports and gives a strong accolade to the Syrian regime with her intervention. After 5 years of war, the National Syrian Army is exhausted and weaked by a bleeding of more than 70 thousand dead men, suffering continuous desertions towards the different rebels groups (from the Free Syrian Army to the jihadists groups) and having great difficulties to mobilize recruits. The soldiers at arms in April, 2011, if still are suitable, have not been licensed of the service. The militias sent by Hezbola’s shiis in 2014 to support them have not been sufficient to change the course of the war against al-Assad. The government already did not have enough men to realize counterinsurgency effective operations, against the armed rebels. Who were harassing him from numerous and divided «attack strips» through the whole Syrian geography. Especially, he lacks the «specialists» and means of the artillery and of the ground assault aviation.

Obama said: «the moral leadership is a weapon much more powerful than the brute force». This is true, when the concerned speakers possess and exhibit the same civil virtues that a democrat. But, when it is a question of beasts, of selfish, of madmen, of unscrupulous opportunists, of peoples that still perceive the force as the instrument of the strongest, this is not useful. It does not matter in the social level in which they are. The leadership is to convince, to direct with the example, to attract the persons towards oneself, for pure pleasure, affinity or mission. To realize a joint labor in benefit of the social group to which one belongs.

And this social role is left out by Obama in Syria. And also some time ago that he ignores, for carelessness or disability and lack of conscience of his identity, the European Union. The one that is not waited in “these fights and by these homes”. But, the political thing, the res politica, has horror and abominates of the «emptinesses», of the «absences». And, this way, he has been attracted by the suction of both, the opportunist of Putin, anxious to lead another more international episode. For that his people, from the first of 2014, proudly endorses him. To compensate his impoverished national revenue and his diminishing demography, Putin gives them international protagonism and national pride.

On March 14, Putin began to dismantle his military deployment in Syria. But left it sufficiently capable, in order that the NSA could expel from Palmira, a few days later, the guerrillas of the ISSI. Possessing the support of the Russians elite infantry forces and heavy air fire for his ground motorized forces. With it, Putin partly removes himself of the peace conversations of Geneva for Syria. And stays, as the only speaker with the not miscible and schizophrenic miscellany of the rebels, the regime of al-Assad. Because, if not, with whom are the jihadists and the National Council of Syria going to negotiate? In this absurd mixture are, between others, the Army of the Conquest, the Muyahidines of Syria, the Army of the Islam, the local Kurds, the Islamist Front anti al-Qaeda and local groups of «partners» to someone. Only in Idbil’s province, at the North-East of the country, in the border with Turkey, there existed more than 100 «different» rebel «groups». And Putin saves himself to return, if he considers necessarily. As he only withdrew around a third of his air operational forces. And he goes forward the movements of the Coalition, which still has not put foot in land. Though Arabia and Qatar offered in February to send ground troops to the conflict. But, how were they going to coordinate and operate in a «polyhostile» territory and without authorization of his government?

Russia uses the Economy as one of the means of her National Strategy.

Using the economy, one of the forces of the national strategy or great strategy of a country, helped by the diplomacy, other one of the potentials of her, Russia seeks to create with the emergent countries «cores of action and shared prosperity». Those Initiated or cultivated in a world that Russia wishes that would be «multipolarized» in diverse «cores and centers of geopolitical power». That they necessarily reduce this way, for their mere existence, the great western powers, today «dependents of the world trade».

The relations with communist China:

China is for Russia a partner, competitor and rival, if serves this polyvalent definition, which does that none of the expressions used is in fullness. Both are «emergent powers», according to the new nomenclature. Determined in growing, in not be directly damaging for the moment and in eroding the hegemonic power and his Europeans allied. This way, the Chinese would not act directly, not by third interposed countries, in Syria or in Iraq, in the boiling cauldron of the Asia of the Southwest: scene of the global contest that sunnis and shiites develop for the control and the supremacy in the Islam.

But they will do it collaborating uo to a point with the interests and the diplomatic propositions of the Russians. Reinforcing this way a political common position of counterweight and neutralization of the influence of West in the zone. And in exchange for a certain Russian reciprocity in favour of the Chinese interests, in other countries in which do not collide the national influences of both.

PUTIN AND XI JIPING, AFTER SIGNED THE GAS AGREEMENT

With his habitual opportunity and operational agility, Putin signed with the president Xi Jinping on Wednesday, the 21st of May, 2014 a strategic contract (30 years of validity) to supply to China around 38 billions of ms3 of Russian gas every year. Certain it is that the negotiations of this transcendental contract have extended during a decade, but the opportunity of his signature for both partners is undeniable. Russia has determined his signature lowering a little the price of transfer, which has not leaked out, and that was the principal obstacle for the agreement between Russian State entity Gazprom and the National Corporation of the Oil of China. There will be begun immediately the installation of a new gas pipeline between Siberia and China, which will cost 55 $ billion and that will be operational in 4 years. China obtains this way a stable supply of part of his energetic primary needs (about 25 %), which will allow him to be reducing his strategic dependence of his national coal. Whose combustion is the principal generating factor of the massive pollution that suffer nowadays the great cities and the industrialized coast of China. It is calculated, according to the official estimations, that China will need 400 billions of ms3 of gas by the year 2020, doubling the current consumption of gas. Which opens the possibility for new extensions of the Russian supply In the frame of this agreement. By his part, looking for alternative markets for his primary energy, Putin reduces transcendency and efficiency with this commercial operation, to the babbling actions of the European Union. For replace part of the supply of the Russian gas, using other hypothetical suppliers of allende the seas. And, in addition, any strangulation of the current service by his buyers, will force the EU to increase his help to Ukraine, to compensate his «reduced income» for the passage of the gas by his territory.

This agreement of energetic supply between Russia and China untied on Thursday, the 21st of May of this year the fears of the European Union and stood out his disability of joint and efficient reaction. The president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, sent a letter to Vladimir Putin, demanding from the Russian president that ihe fulfills his commitments and assures «the supply to the European companies in the decided level». Barroso received the order from the European chiefs of Government of answering in their name to Putin. In spite of that this had gone directly to several members states, to indicate them the problem that they would untie with the establishment of economic sanctions to Russia. «I write you in name of the European Union and his 28 States members«, Durao Barroso headed his letter. «I ask you for a constructive approach» to the created situation. And it was useful to indicate him that the fact that Gazprom should assure «a responsible supply» goes «in interest of all», included Russia. In a conference that took place the same day in Poland, the president of the Commission (The Concil of European Commissioners or Secretaries) he said that Moscow exports 80% of his oil and 70% of his gas to the EU. And that «is by far the most attractive market for Russia».