AN UNSUCCESSFUL AND DEGRADED CALIPHATE III.

(FINAL)

The Islamic State of Syria, Iraq and Levante (southwest of Asia)

Al-Qaeda makes to the Sunnis great part of the difficult, despicable and awkward «fieldwork». And her existence and threat is a trick to play by the Sunnis. Always they can agree with the Shiite government to exercise more or less control over al-Qaeda in some areas. This was the function for general Petraeus re-turned them from 2007 into self-defense forces, the Sahwa militias (of the Sunni resurgence). Strategy that followed without counting with the government and paying the Americans the salaries of these appeased militias. With it, as only antiwestern visible enemy stayed the AQI and next the Islamic State of Iraq, that is to say al-Qaeda. The area of operations is as arid and difficult that that of Syria. The «groups» movements can be detected from the sky and for many eyes of chance observers. The targets of the «punctual assaults with explosives» are the mosques, the markets, the peregrinations, the concentrations of civilians and military men and Iraqi policemen and the frequent passages or in mass of the Shiites. In many of these places always are several members of the same family. The Network uses the uncontrolled violence and taken to her unnecessary, immodest and insanity extremes, not hesitating to sacrifice their «suicide muhaiddins». That will never have «expectations of life and promotion» within the terrorist organization. So, the Network betrays even their «more effective militants», as demonstrates the correlation of caused hurts and suffered losses.

And this is not all. These “fatherland sellers” terrorists are the principal persons in charge of the genocide (systematic extermination of a collectivity for reasons of religion, race or ideology) that the Christians suffer in Syria and Iraq. And that are provoking their massive exodus, probably without return, from their native lands. Where they were living and working from several centuries before the Islam flags were appearing in these Christian lands. Only a brushstroke, probably already forgotten. On Sunday, the 31st of October, 2010 the cathedral.of Our Lady of the Perpetual Help of Baghdad was assaulted during the celebration of the Eucharist by a group of the AQI. Blowing, shooting and throwing grenades, they attacked the present faithfuls and celebrators, in a delirious drunkenness of blood and horror. And shot the crucified Christ, who was presiding. Dozens of persons, major and children, and two priests, remained died in the sacred place, sacrilegiously profaned. This way, on following December 14, the cardinal Leonardo Sandri, Prefect of the Roman Congregation for the Oriental Churches, had to dedicate again the cathedral to the divine worship. It was the response of the Christian faith to the aggression of the subhuman assassins. The cardinal breathed the community to live through a response of love to all the Iraqis, under the protection of the Virgin of the Perpetual Help. In the first letter to the Corinthians, 1 can be read: » do not you know that you are God’s temples? So, that who profanes His temple, God will destroy him». The Justice belongs to God, the Wise , the Merciful, the Compassionate, which knows the deeds of all men and they will be pay for them the Day of the Resurgence…

At the beginning of 2014, the forces of the ISSIL invaded Faluya. «Already there is no presence of the Iraqi State in Faluya. The police and the army left the city. Al-Qaeda has taken off the Iraqi flags, has burned them and hung her own flags on all the buildings», exaggerating narrated a local journalist to “The Washington Post”. At the end of the Friday central prayer, the 3rd of January, followed even in the street by thousands of Muslims, dozens of jihadists, with the «black banners embroidered with the Shahada» of al-Qaeda, appeared in the downtown, to proclaim the establishment of an «Islamic emirate» in Faluya. The Shahada is the profession of faith of the Islam and his alone recitation turns the neophyte into Muslim. It is his Islamic personal and intimate baptism, without necessary presence of an imam. The Shahada is sometimes «adorned» with a cutlass extended to all the long of his text. Al-Ramadi is also partially occupied. There, the Government troops killed on Friday the local commander of the ISSIL, Abu Abdelrahman al-Bagdadi. In the combats of this day in these two cities of Anbar’s province, died more than 100 military men and jihadists.

The combats began on Monday, the 30th of December in al-Ramadi. There, the forces of Baghdad devastated a camp of anti-government protest, raised at the end of 2012 and considered as “al-Qaeda’ barracks», and untied an islamist counter-offensive, that they were not waiting. The march 2 years ago of the American forces, created a dangerous deterioration of the Iraq capacity to face the irregular insurgence, in his double aspect of military fight and civil action of development, education and politics. And this encouraged the Sunnis militias in general and the jihadists of al-Qaeda especially. The Sunni Iraqi minority is frustrated by her loss of rights and freedoms at hands of the Shiite government of the prime minister al-Maliki. The last elections dedicated the «democratic» right of the Shiite majority over her. And «Sunni Resurgence» of general Petreaus, is already without «stimuli». And the lack of perspectives to obtain civil advances in the negotiations with the majority, returned the latent and bellicose Sunni’s «local and regional forces of self-defense» to the active rebel rows.

The operational strategy of the jihadists groups centers in never get involve by the Army in combats lost in advance. Their technologies and tactics are the constant and beforehand mobility; the dispersion and the infiltration in the urban fighting, going forward in a flexible and wearing out defense, yielding space; the small, dispersed and more or less simultaneous or sequential actions in an area; the staggered flight; the fight with limited aims and in advantageous temporary conditions; the systematic abandon of positions, forcing once and again the enemy to deploy and prepare. They can win for the ISSIL the necessary time to survive in Iraq.

In the temporary occupations of large populations, they extend their defensive positions beyond the necessary in a conventional defense, covering a great surface. Their «delay points» are diffuse, disguise concealed and cover. So are imperceptible for the strangers. It is necessary to enter the houses to detect perforated walls and to find passages under a furniture or a carpet. The destruction that generates the heavy vague fire, reinforces their combat positions, surrounding them with debris that divide and impede the enemy accesses, except when are reached by a direct impact. The resistance nests have more importance in this form of fight, because the occupation of the defense zone is more tenuous, they cannot strengthen too much the positions, the sights are more short and exist numerous approximation routes. They depend on the delay points and to them return if the nests are invaded or destroyed. Numerous alternative positions exist. This defense structure allows to deceive the assaulting enemy about the forward limit of the defense position, her real extension, the limits of the sectors that form her, the interest of the rebel command in the defense of the zone and to disperse the attacker heavy fire.

AN UNSUCCESSFUL AND DEGRADED CALIPHATE II.

(CONTINUATION) 

The Islamic State of Syria, Iraq and Levante (southwest of Asia)

In general, the jihadists groups have failed in actively and firmly joining in a social wide group, which gives coverage and permanent impulse to their «imperialistic social religious movement». Their «catechizing of the violence» allows them to be prepared mental for the glorious and in peace death, and, even for the suicide, in the accomplishment of their punctual tactical actions. But this rage and insanity sermon is not a weapon for the conversion of social groups. And there is a fundamental reason for it,: their «creed» lacks possibilities of acceptance, victory and permanency, out of the vicissitudes of a war. The jihadists groups act with an unnecessary and indiscriminate brutality, which discredits them before the Islam, the Koran and the Sunna or Islamic tradition gathered in the hadises or writed «comments and facts» of Mohamed. This lack of religious legitimacy provokes the absolute absence of venerable, respected and pious ulemas and mufties at their side. Their supposed «Islam ideology» is based on a few favorable verses of the Koran (this has approximately 6200), on some formely historical facts, when the minor Jihad (or violent one) was applicable and useful for the Umma, and not on the totality of the message of the Islam.

The Operational Complications of the Jihadists.

Al-Qaeda acted in Syria in 2011 and 2012 using the Front al-Nusrah for the Liberation of the Peoples of East. This name was and is of inversely proportional length to his real operational capacity. Al-Nusrah was responsible of the great isolated and indiscriminate attacks with bombs in Damascus and other cities. They were seeking to introduce a factor of instability and social fracture in the real parameters of this war. That did not manage to produce for the discontinuity of the attacks and for be knowing the authorship of these insanity assaults against Muslims. In the revolt against the occupation of 2003 in Iraq, al-Qaeda had lines of supplies and recruitment from Syria, which nowadays are used in the other way. From Turkey they were also receiving «internationalists muhaydinnes». And in 2012, part of the liberated in several assaults to Iraqi prisons, joined the Front al-Nusrah, which was fortifying in number and operational capacity.

The differences between the ISSIL and the Front al-Nusrah are born in a personal clash: the ill-will between Abu Abdulah al-Bagdadi, chief of the Islamic State of Iraq (today, the ISSIL), and Abu Mohamed al-Golani, founder of the Front al-Nusrah. Initially, the Iraqis helped the Syrians to establish their own affiliated organization of “the Network”. But, in the spring of 2013 al-Bagdadi announced the creation of the Islamic State of Syria, Iraq and the Levant. And tried to fuse his organization with her of to the-Golani. Certainly, the Front al-Nusrah rejected directly his absorption. The Iraqi al-Baghdadi considers himself to be a direct disciple of Osama Ben Laden. And already in 2010, took the command of the AQI, which inherited from the unsuccessful Musab al-Zarkawi, changing then its name to «Islamic State of Iraq».

The ISSIL is very unpopular in Syria, for his extremism and for having a qualified majority of Iraqis and jihadists from Europe and other parts of the world in his rows. After Yarabulus’s recent occupation, in the north of Syria, they beheaded a dozen of men, and fixed his heads in stakes. And the habitants who could, frightened emigrated to Karkamis, a Turkish locality. The rejection to the ISSIL is such that the Syrian National Coalition, the principal political opponent platform, assures that the organization is supported by the Syrian regime, which theoretically is enemy of all of them. This way, In a communique of January, 2014 it affirmed: «The Coalition believes that the ISSIL is closely linked with the terrorist regime, and serves directly or indirectly, to the interests of the president al-Assad and his lobby. The Syrians’ murder at hands of this group does not leave doubts on the intentions in his creation, his aims and the agendas to which he serves, confirmed by the nature of his terrorist hostile actions to the Syrian Revolution».

On other hand, the Islamic Front is an alliance created in 2013 by seven islamist «radical and moderate» groups, all opposite to the Network. His spokespersons say that they approximately count with 45 thousand fighters. But, we do not believe that reach 10 thousand militias of «light irregular infantry». If the Front is n force in a key point as the frontier position Bab al-Hawa with Turkey, at the level of Hatay’s province, the ISSIL has kept for four months Azaz, the ville of access to Alepo from the Turkish border in Kilis. In the north of Syria operate all the groups, controlling unconnected chunks of ground. The ISSIL killed Abu Rayan, a negotiator of «Ahrar Sham», a group of the Islamic Front, at the end of December. To the murder joined the assault of the ISSIL at the beginning of year to Kafranbel, in the power of the ELS. The clashes between the Islamic Front and the Islamic State of Syria, Iraq and Levant spread to Alepo’s neighborhoods and to the localities Tel Rifat and Maskanah. On Friday, the 3rd of February, an offensive of «Suqur Sham», another group of the Front, prevented the ISIS from send reinforcements near Azaz. Complicating everything, the so called «Army of the Syrians Muyahidins» has just been formed, where gather the adversaries of the ISIL and also joined by the Front al-Nusrah. We verify that the islamist terrorists are generally ideologically, institutionally and strategically divided. Though the rivals bands could offer occasionally support, refuge, information or supplies between them. The reasons are that the chiefs of principal bands always want to be «emirs (princes) and interpreters (doctors) of the Islam.» Their urgencies and organizational and tactical preferences have very mundane and degenerate foundations. «By their actions and fruits you will know them».

A confused, diffuse and schizophrenic strategy…

Keeping a similar strategy in Syria and Iraq by the ISSIL for the creation of his radical salifist independent caliphate has several important mistakes. One is to simultaneously fight in two countries with different strategic approaching. Other is to divide their meagres trained operational forces in two fronts. In Syria, the valid strategic for the heterogeneous, multiple and divided opposition to al-Assad, is to support, at least, the unit in the military strategy. This way, all the military efforts could converge in different, simultaneous or successive, objectives, that decides a military high command, respected by all the present and active groups in Syria. Already we have seen how al-Assad amounts means and efforts to his cause (militias trained of Hezbola, armament, equipments and ammunitions reinstatement, political diplomatic support from China, Iran and Russia). This is allowing him to beat in diverse combats the opposition groups and to expel them from positions that were occupying, some during certain time. Not observance of this strategy, of pure survival, would lead the opposition to his progressive destruction by the SNA.

In Iraq, the strategy of the Sunnis does not try to gain a civil war at the democratic imperfect regime al-Maliki, of Shiite majority. Neither she claims, nor might, expel them from the country by depletion, on having emphasized their disability to finish with the armed rebels and forcing them to assume it. This was the case of many “wars of national liberation” in the colonial countries in the middle of the 20th century. To many of the guerrilla popular movements it was enough to them to resist for some years the floods and onslaughts of the foreign military forces. And, this way, resisting, they tired the metropolis peoples from support a distant, poor assumed and harmful war and enervated their armed forces. Which were often lack of understanding and up to underestimated in their own homes. The Sunnis fight to regionally guarantee the power of their tribes, based on their accepted chiefs, on their «assemblies of equals» of those standing up in them and in the Pashtunwalli or code of honor for their behavior and their individual and collective rights and duties. The Sunnis fight to get rights and concessions from the Shiite majority, which they too obstinately deny to them within the rules of the imperfect inorganic democracy existing in Iraq.

For it, their combats are very measured. And his aims go on through few and successive steps. So, the Sunnis leave certain freedom of action to the Islamic State, provided that they respect their hegemony and do not try to establish strategic guerrilla bases in the tribal zones. Then, in concrete cases, they facilitate temporary refuge, supply and concealment to their «action groups» in their operations. As was the case of the previous concentration of the companies and battalions of the Islamic State for the harassment and the temporal occupation of al-Ramadi and Faluya. The Islamic State has little probabilities of establishing itself and managing to control a more or less great zone in Iraq. Because, both the army and the Sunnis militias would reject his attempts of creating stable bases. Necessary to realize consistent and connected operations, looking for some military and/or social definite and transcendent aim.

(TO BE CONTINUED)

AN UNSUCCESSFUL AND DEGRADED CALIPHATE.

The Islamic State of Syria, Iraq and Levante (southwest of Asia)

Ayman al-Zawahiri disallowed at the beginning of February 2014 the use of the brand “al-Qaeda» by the ISSIL. This organization was using that “seal” as «guarantee of terrorism, robbery and anti-Christian unrestraint», in her raids and assaults in these countries and Lebanon. The mentioned managing director of «Terror International Partners» or “The Network” (al-Qaeda, in Arab) reached his incompetence level on having replaced, by premature and unexpected death, the founder of the «Consortium for the Islamic complete Terror». Lacking the charisma and the capacity of action that had Osama Ben Laden, the direction of al-Qaeda is today more an ideological «think tank», that a respectable and respected «strategic conductive command».

The Geographical Stage of the Islamic State.

This organization acts in a band of 100 thousand Km2., that spreads over Iraq and Syria and that forms a rectangle of 800 km length for 125 km width, from Baghdad up to Aleppo and the mountains of the west center of Syria. The width changes along the tour. The pillaged territory begins in Faluya, approximately 60 km west of Baghdad, and includes the nearby cities of Habbaniya and al-Ramadi. And, following the Euphrates towards the northwest, it reaches the riverside cities of Haditha and Âna, before penetrating in Syria by Abu Kemal’s city. In the middle of the desert of the south and east of Syria, only relieved by the river, is the Dayr al-Zawr city. And continuing for the river, we come first to Raqqa, close to the mouth of the river Belikh in the Euphrates. And then to the al-Assad artificial lake n the great meander of the Euphrates, to continue up to Aleppo and the Kurdish mountains of the west center, in the border with Turkey.

It is not easy to move in these lands, which are infertile, beyond the irrigations of the Euphrates and the lake al-Assad, without leaving a «tactical fingerprint of the march». Here are advised and prescribed the Obama’s drones and the profuse collection of information and analyses of his agencies of espionage. That can carry out a continuous exploration and follow-up labor on the human movements in the whole zone we treat. This, completed with the ground labor of collaborators and allied forces, allows to create a sufficient and constant intelligence on the plans, deployments, concentrations of the ISSIL’s forces.

The grounds of this great area lacks concealments and natural covers, like forests, extensive bushes and mountains. This does that the only refuges and stays for the yihadists groups are the villages and populations along its backbone: the river Euphrates and his banks. For their defense and cover they have to disperse in them, forming one or several «squads of muhaidins» of not more than 35 or 40 men each one. This irregular group is the major one that can be coherently commended by a local «arraez» or chief, with poor discipline and military formation.

The Jihadists in Syria and their Contradictions.

The deep crisis of the Syrian civil society and the mismanagement produced by a civil war «in crescendo», that already extends for three years, causing approximately 140 thousand deads, have allowed the jihadists groups in the Near East to settle in Syria. Their refuge zones or influence areas are not big, nor continue. They are rather dispersed, nearby between them, but split. And none of them would resist the serious harassment of the NSA (the National Syrian Army) or of the principal rebel forces: the SFA (Syrian Free Army), the recent “Islamic Front”, the newest “Army of the Syrian Mujahidins” anti al-Qaeda or the Kurdish forces, defending their frontier zone with Turkey. The occupied zones form as amorphous and fluent in evolution «spots», from which they withdraw if the military enemy pressure is strong and continued. To establish in alternative, as nearby as possible, positions, which allow them to keep a minimal operational connection with other temporal regional positions.

Since they do not have enough rooting between the Syrian, to leave their temporal positions does not suppose to abandon their habitants to the military or rebel enemies. The habitants of the occupied areas are not gained for the “Holy War”. These settlers are frightened, threatened and, at least, neutralized, in order that they give cover, subsistence and support to the jihadists bands and neither hinder, nor importune them in their activities. Only those that cooperated with the «Enemies of the Jihad» can be in real danger before them. When the jihadists occupy a population, always prepare their evacuation routes towards the suburbs of her, and of retreat, from those to the meeting points established nearby. To go from them to regional positions of reception and/or of occupation.

When they are liberated of the jihadist presence, many habitants, specially in the small towns, try to temporarily flee and shelter in the nearby major populations. The reason is that the imperious, inconsiderate and striking despotism of the jihadists, is joined by the heavy fires of their enemies, used during the recapture of the population. Both the military men and the rebel major groups prefer to avoid their losses and hurrying the eviction of the jihadists, using the aviation (only the government) and the artillery, if they have her. Even, the free flight hollow load antitanks missiles RPG-7V type (the poor artillery), launched in double or triple volleys, cause a devastating effect In the masonry or adobe buildings. This already would serve to make withdraw towards the town interior the security jihadists forces from their advanced and of observation positions, placed in the limits of the town or in adjacent points. And already finally, the military men, very occupied now, usually move back in a short time, to realize other missions; so, the constant, fluid and even reversible character of the irregular military operations; then, the jihadists can return and purge responsibilities. Because of it, many civilians think: «once and not more».

In Syria have proliferated the «groups of supporters» or bands of al-Qaeda. The reasons of which they have not been articulated in an only terrorist Syrian group are different. One is the distance and the lack of control and power of al-Qaeda’s «central core». This is the tails of her operational decentralization, which “the Network” is proud of and with what threatens to reach her timid enemies for half planet. The communist parties, specialists verified in the capture of the Power, always exhibited an ideological, operational and military monolithic unity, proper of warlike filled with enthusiasm monks, in their so called «national liberation fights» for three continents. Another reason is that these «separated brothers» hate between them. The egalitarianism derived from the brotherhood in the salafists sunnies doctrines, soon originates between the «equal ones», a purulent and contagious infection of envy, ill-will and rancor. And vice versa, the existence of a capable, just hierarchy, respected and accepted in an organization, favors the emulation and the ascent of many of the most capable members. A reason is also that the ambition, the audacity, the overflowing aggressiveness and the lack of scruples of his arms chiefs, sheiks, local maliks and peeled leaders, only are equalized by their scanty formation, a poor interpretive knowledge of the Koran and the Sunna and their broken military knowledge. Their first bitter enemy is neither the Army, nor the SFA or the self-defense militias of Kurds, Alauits, Christians or Druzes, according to the regions. Their more hated and fearful enemies are the commands of other jihadists groups of Syria. Because they are the most related, their rivals for the control and command, their competitors for the direction of the jihadist movement in Syria. This way, the foolishness (lack in the knowledge that supposes them and they need) of all the jihadists groups leads them to want to distribute the booty of war, before having put, at least, in reasonable conditions to aspire to conquer it.

On the other hand, touching already the strategies of the 2 groups pro al-Qaeda in Syria, the Front al-Nusrah seeks to establish only an «Islamic radical emirate» in Syria. The ISSIL, born in the guerrilla warfares fights in Iraq after 2003, wants to create a more extensive salafist caliphate. And to install it, for the moment, in Syria and Iraq. Though it has already done punishment assaults to the Lebanese Shiites, in response to Hezbola’s support to al-Assad. The first answers and goes in parallel to al-Qaeda’s strategy of favoring the creation and the functioning of national or regional «representative cores». That from his large physical distance and with the structural laxity of the Network, could be controlled by her, as for orders, strategies and operations and the use of the «al-Qaeda brand». But, the ISSIL looks for a functional independence and, probably also ideological, with «head office core» of the Network. Since it would act as a «leader operational command» in a supranational zone, which might include the whole southwest of Asia. This way, an administrator and absentee high headquarters would immediately be in the way to the ISSIL.

Ayman al-Zawahiri confirmed, as we said, the link of the Front al.-Nusrah with al-Qaeda and denied any relation with the ISSIL. And he had to intervene in other occasions to deprive al-Bagdadi of authority. «The ISSIL must be abolished, whereas the Islamic State of Iraq must continue working», al-Zawahiri declared In November, 2013. «Al-Bagdadi committed a mistake on having established the ISSIL without asking us for permission», and, continued, al-Golani the Syrian «has been wrong on having announced his rejection of the ISSIL, without our permission». Al-Zawahiri ordered then that the Islamic State of Iraq should circumscribe his operations to that country, whereas the Front al-Nusrah is “an independent branch of al-Qaeda, that reports before the general command (as a franchisee)». In addition, he recriminated both «brothers groups» for their violence acts against other Muslims. In response, and in spite that the original group «al-Qaeda in Iraq» (AQI) of Musab al-Zarkawi had sworn loyalty to al-Zawahiri, al-Baghdadi declared himself in rebellion towards him. Producing an important crisis of leadership in the Network, which they tried to relieve separating from al-Bagdadi. This could not less that debilitate the fight against al-Assad, as the jihadists groups were spreading in Syria and the army was centering towards the large populations. And during the recent clashes between the rebels, al-Golani offered to a mediation to the groups, which has not come to fruition, in order to give priority to plant face against al-Assad.

(TO BE CONTINUED)

MODERN WEAPONS: THE DRONE AND THE SUICIDAL MUJAIDIN II.

(continuation)

The explosive Taliban: from the Jihad to the Garden of the Houris, without scales.

The suicidal mujaidin is a personally advanced weapon (just look for who has nowadays the fearlessness of removing itself from life, defending some ideals and a prize at the Other Side), abundant, nearby and cheap. It possesses the highest «combat specific capacity», (according to the parameters established by colonel Trevor Dupuy, which refer to real values of the different armies, calculated in conflicts and wars): many military men, policemen and civil authorities of the enemy are definitive losses for each own loss. And speaking in terms of the universal good administration principle of the scanty available resources, his actions (as «investments») have also a high ROMI; or (military) return over this marginal investment. The suicidal jihadist optimizes this way his asymmetry with the weapon and the highly available enemies. This soldier of «one use» knows, takes advantage of his opportunity, decides and acts. Because he can be a hallucinated fanatic, but he is not an idiot. For his personal and ideological character, his effective action raises the moral, the conviction and the decision of his companions, collaborators and sympathizers. The islamist suicide «appreciates» this way his enemies. Because they are his infallible key to «going out under canopy from this Valley of Tears «.

The explosive fighter is a common weapon of the Talibans. If the explosive charge, her characteristics and the vector are suitable, the sophisticated enemy sensors and the protective jackets are of little use against he. And the armored vehicles and the buildings also do not serve to be protected from he. The “trigger carrying agent” can be man or woman and adult or child. And can cooperate in his suicide attack, a bushes, a goods stand, a donkey, a bicycle or an engine vehicle. A «suicidal fighter of one use», is not a select marksman: he is not necessary to train militarily (basic, technical and tactical knowledge). His other complementary, fearsome and almost unbeatable weapons are the surprise, the freedom of action and the initiative.

The aims preferred by the «explosives sworn-ins» are the enemy security forces, so much «unbelievers» as «traitors», and the Muslims belonging to the heterodox branch of the Islam (the Shiites and Alauites). To the enemy security forces they bring over disguised as recruits in formation, candidates for the enrollment, supplies personnel (outsourced services), companions, «collaborators» of the ISAF and civil innocent prominent figures. Their target is human always, because the property damages hurt less the regular enemy. And they are located in the policemen or the enemy armies agglomerations, in the barracks, recruitment centers and points of obliged and frequent passing and with motive of stops, farewells, ostentations and exhibitions, of those. To the Shiites they bring over taking advantage of their inevitable concentrations: the annual international peregrinations to his holy places, his stopping places in the different stages or the Fridays midday prayers, specially communities, in their mosques. Though the latter assaults take place rather in the bordering countries, Iraq (Shiite majority) and Pakistan (Sunni majority).

The great problem is that is very difficult to fight (to offset, stop or neutralize) against a few enemies, more or less isolated, determined to die and of another etnia and idiosyncrasy. And with the suicides this sharpens up to making it almost impossible to realize «a priori». Because they are combated with modern, technology and trained forces, prepared generally for wars of third generation. That would theoretically face similar forces or of the second generation. And their commands have almost as an unavoidable premise, preserve from physical (the principal thing), mental and moral hurts the men under their orders. The suicide must go unnoticed in the place chosen for the attack, by its age, genre, aspect and attitude. He has also to conceal perfectly his appliance and his equipment. To be able to approach his target and make exploit that one. His passport for the Garden of the Houris is to take with him the major number of dead and mutilated enemies.

The added human and material hurts to Muslims, caused around the explosion point, are “collateral damages”. The Sunnies jihadists looked for an overcomplicated, but sufficient «solution» in the practice, to ignore the Koranic rule «thou will not kill Muslims». On having lacked a clergy and an only religious doctrine, the interpretations of the Islam and, especially, his applications for the daily life, can be multiple. In effect, to calm the repugnances in producing them, an al-Qaeda «ideologist», Abu Yahya al-Libi, developed a «religious» theory about the «not looked hurt». According to her, is allowed to the militants jihadists to kill Muslims, when is inevitable. And, even, when it is useful. And the mujaidins express their desire that the collateral dead men, should also be considered by Allah as martyrs of his «holy war». And to believe this, comes very well to the fanatics who direct the groups and to the insanities fanatics that follow or support them.

The motivations of these “explosive sworn-ins” are simple. An effective material motivation is their chronic loss of the basic natural needs: sustenance, family, safety, refuge and cover, expectations and reasonable progress. It is an effective spur to induce the employment of the liberating violence by a part of the society, specially the idealistic young men. The «positive» motivation would be the economic prizes that Talibans give to the families of the martyrs. And these are so much the fallen in combat as the suicides. The religious motivation is the powerful mean of persuasion and conviction. The suicides of the Jihad are methodically and intensely catechized. The Koranic verses related with the Jihad, are known by heart by them. The other suicides «example» surrounds them in their daily life. In the way of photos, manuscripts, testimonial videos and destiny companions. Their preachers clarify their doubts and encourage them to prematurely reach the Paradise. That is destined specially to the martyrs of the Jihad. Everything is like to the initiation functioning of a toxic sect: that destroys the personality of the lowest members. The universal character of the Muslims’ community, facilitates the flow and the insertion of «internationalist voluntaries» suicidal fighters from other countries.

The operational key of the Taliban are their innumerable local chiefs, with their small bands of radical irregulars. They are the persons in charge of intimidating, teaching or catechizing, scaring, attacking and occupying more or less temporarily some of the numerous settlements and hamlets, on both sides of the border. The Taliban movement follows a constant elementary cycle of «teaching, training, supporting and delegating» between the small «sheiks» and his deputies. So that they obtain a certain rotation in the command and in its exercise. These local «maliks» are practically immune to the assault of the «drones» of the ISAF. That explore, attack the irregular enemy and execute his evident, it is supposed, out-standing commands.

The drones cannot follow and attack so many minuscule and evasive targets. From an enemy network that turns out to be profuse, diffuse and confused. They cannot substitute, as is claimed by extrapolation from a few first successes, the ground active and aggressive patrols of exploration or combat. That, together with the military units and the civic and political action groups, are destined to dispute and gain his “bases refuges” to the enemy and, later, the popular majority support. Like the «American saturation bombardments» could not cut the Route Ho Chi Minh, supplying the Vietcong and the regular North Vietnamese forces in the «zone demilitarized» and at the south of this. Going from North Vietnam across Eastern Laos to South Vietnam. And all was because their air attacks, were not accompanying a «ground action» over that Route. That was complementary, systematic and constant, not necessarily exhaustive, of the air action of pure attrition.

And waiting in peace death from sky does not scare, even not worry sufficiently the mentally normal people. This only happened to the imaginary chief of Asterix’s Gallic village. And is something like what Ramon Gómez de la Serna was saying to his acquaintances and less intimate friends in Buenos Aires: «Here I am, waiting for the cancer». The intimidating threat, which could change the conduct of an enemy chief, must be something real (that is tended to magnify), sufficient, felt and immediate or near. Like the sirens installed in the Stukas. In order that his precise diving bombardment terrifies in land all his possible human targets, which were not yet veterans. Or as the explosive mujaidins, whose behavior is for the enemy like a “gas”, without own volume or form and that can reach all the available sites.

MODERN WEAPONS: THE DRONE AND THE SUICIDAL MUJAIDIN

If Plutarch was living today, surely he would write one of his «Parallel Lives» (one of two collections of his works), dedicated to trying and comparing the not crewed planes («death from above») and the suicidal yihadists («Allahu Akbar»). In effect, both are annoying and asymmetrical weapon, directed against the personnel and the mental and volitional factors of the enemy. That are not tactically decisive. And whose military effects are limited, but accumulative.

The Not Crewed Planes of exploration (reconnaissance) and ground recognition and of bombardment.

They are technologically advanced weapons, which began to develop several decades ago, destined to eliminate a minimum of «designated enemies», so much real as «ideological or potential «. And to minimizing the own losses. Which does irrelevant his economic cost for their rich owners. They have a highest effective range and are of the category of «intelligent». Though are not yet authorized to decide the moment to throw their missiles, once acquired the target. Their operational strategic use might be named the «War of the Drones».

The specific tasks that were distinguishing the CIA and the Pentagon, were intermingling during the first decade of the 21st century. This was owed to the operational and strategic failure of the USA in the long asymmetric wars of IV th generation (be read of guerrilla warfares and, be added or not, as be the hostiles, of national liberation) in Iraq and Afghanistan. Actions that they carried out after their short «armed conflicts» after 11/09/2001 against the masses armies (of second generation) of their tyrannical regimes. And using in them their trained and very technologically equipped forces (of III rd generation). Closed in false the Iraqi front and initiated the retreat in Afghanistan, the White House is endowing the CIA of more military means to give hunt to the salafists terrorists. So she has increased his drones or planes without crew fleet. And is considering to authorize an increase of the Pentagon’s spies’ network, to exercise a bigger control on the refuges of al-Qaeda in the Arabic peninsula and in the east and north of Africa.

These changes in the strategic and operational aims of the CIA and the Pentagon and the suitable endowment of means, culminated during the Barack Obama’s first mandate. The CIA has taken more active part in the eradication of the international jihadism, and has expanded notably his program of assaults with missiles thrown by drones. In the summer of 2011, Obama nominated the former director of the CIA, Leon Panetta, chief of the Pentagon. And the commander of the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and chief of the Central military Command, David Petraeus, was nominated director of the CIA. Petraeus, before resigning 9/11/2012, for that of the erotic (his biographer) of the Power, asked Obama for a reinforcement of the drones fleet of the Agency. To be able to effect assaults beyond the habitual aims in Somalia, Yemen and Pakistan. The Agency and the Pentagon have their looks put in Mali and Libya, in view of the increase of the activity in the zone of the franchise «al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb”, the Ansar Dine group and the Anzawad’s Islamic Republic, seated at the north of Timbuktu. The tuaregs have changed his former employer Gaddafi for the salafists terrorists. To whom Gadafi accused of being his armed opposition. And that are destroying the universal heritage of Timbuktu, under the pretext that its monumental representations rival with Allah. Sources of the North American intelligence say that the drones fleet of the CIA does not excel 35 at the end of 2012 and Petraeus requested ten more.

The CIA has a list of «threats» to the USA, of which he has authorization to kill. In September, 2011 he got a famous success on having killed in Yemen the imam Anuar al-Aulaki, an American well-known personage of al-Qaeda. The Pentagon also has his «ist of authorized targets». That are checked every week by approximately 100 security analysts of the Administration. Their function is to recommend to the president the changes of names in the list. The procedure is semi officially called the «Tuesday of the terror» in the White House. The CIA and Joint Command of Special Operations of the Pentagon cooperate in many of these attacks. Their targets are supposed leaders and even simple militants of al-Qaeda and associate groups of jihadists. And the tactic is to exterminate them before they act. This is one more step in the foundations of the military doctrine of the USA. Determined for decades by the contradictory parameter of «not suffering losses in any war or conflict «.

The Obama’s «war of the drones» has much of «preventive» character”- before that crime has been committed–and the executions are summary, without judicial sentence. And ,for this reason, it supposes attributing the right to realize extra judicial executions in any part of the world. So, Obama’s right hand in this theme, John Brennan, a veteran of the CIA, is called the «Czar of the Assassins». The program «Death of the Sky» (Death from Above) is legitimized only » by the person of the president «. The executions are legal, because the president decides and arranges them. Obama has obtained with the drones a weapon to appear «hard and effective» in the fight against al-Qaeda, without turning out to be unpopular with the voters. But, according to Christopher Griffin, in an article published by «Rolling Stone», «Obama’s secret war supposes the major air offensive not driven by human beings, never realized in the military history». And paraphrasing Churchill, he adds «never so few had killed so many people by remote control».

The Administration does not admit explicitly the existence of the program of drones, for safety motives. Though the White House declares in her calculated filtrations, that the not searched victims are almost non-existent. Not all the analysts accept this “surgical precision” without authentic information, attributed to these assaults from well away the horizon. An important problem is that the drones terrify entire areas, with some of them flying a lot of time over the settlements. On the other hand, as is the case of Pakistan, the «basic information» for the creation of intelligence for the mission, is facilitated by the local paid people. That also offers false information. More important and controversial is the question of the euphemistically so called «collateral falls», as if they had less importance on having been caused by the imprecisions and the operational mistakes. Some assaults with drones have caused tens of civilians deaths, including women and children, as is the case of Saleh Mohammed al-Anbouri in Yemen in December, 2009. And only in Pakistan, according to The Guardian, the drones would have killed around 3000 persons, of which a third were clearly civil, between 2008 and 2011.

The assaults against the human aims are realized by missiles thrown from drones. Since 2002, the USA has realized almost 450 missions of this kind in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. President Obama authorizes the assaults in Somalia and Yemen. But he is consulted only about a third of the missions in Pakistan. Where the «operational at charge» decide on the basis of “general received orders”. The Pentagon also uses the drones in his operations of exploration and of assault in Afghanistan. The CIA has his principal role in Pakistan. Where exists internally an ambiguity calculated of the FFAA, the intelligence services (the ISI is the most important, with much) and the Government in the relations and preferences towards: his foreign ally, the USA, the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban and the pashtunes tribes of the frontier zones, near the former Durand line, and the southern baluchis (the Baluchistan). A strategic national aim for Pakistan is to support an important, preferably decisive influence, in the internal Afghan matters. And a strategic military aim at the east of the country is to have monitored, controlled and neutralized his own Taliban and other hostile minor groups, at the east of Peshawar’s meridian, and without they act at the east of the Indus river.

George Bush’s strategic national doctrine established, but without being due explained, not accepted tacitly by both Parties, that «asymmetrical wars» (irregular and with low level of military means) were carried on and were necessary, to keep away from the American territories and those of his allies, the threats of the “foreign fundamentalist terrorism” of any origin, religion or ideology. This justified the post war occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. But, with an exploded fiscal and exterior deficits and with a democrat Administration, is necessary for the USA to save more in military resources. To dedicate them «to constructing a nation here, at home». This way, the USA qualitatively lowers the bar of the exterior terror, putting al-Qaeda as almost the only not national violent enemy. This terrorist salafist internationalist «network», without own territory, with his operational chiefs known, fled and not wished as guests in a normal country, is a more attainable, adaptable and manageable aim for the American forces and means of «rapid punctual incursion».

This justifies the increase of the use of the drones, spy satellites, own or local agents in the hostile area, attacks with limited aim by elite small units and small expeditionary forces and units of Marines amphibious assault, transported in «ships of control and transport» of strategic projection with his naval escort. The deployments of tens of thousands of military men and his luggage and equipment for several years in a theater of operations, are rejected indefinitely by the new «doctrine» of the «diminishing defense». This way, the Pentagon has to operationally center on the counter terrorist tactics and technologies. And he seeks to reinforce his own espionage branch, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). The reason is simple and clear: as the CIA has been effective giving hunt to terrorists abroad, the Pentagon wants to be more like it, and less as an army at use, to adapt to the new aims and national strategies. In November, 2012, Panetta asked Obama to allows him to recruit 1600 new spies. It would double the size of the DIA. At the end of this month, the secretary of Defense declared that: «The campaign against al-Qaeda will take place out of “declared combat zones”. And using tactics that leave little track, with precision operations».

The principal not crewed planes are the Predator and the Reaper. And cost more than $13 millions of dollars per unit. The Pentagon possesses approximately 19000 for the tasks of espionage and combat. The CIA has his own fleet, with reserved information. The General Atomics makes the drones. Their weapon more devastating are the missiles AGM-114 Hellfire II, the Lockheed Martin. In October, 2012, the USA entrusted 24000 missiles for his use and that of allied authorized countries. There exist the variants of antitank hollow load (HEAT), antipersonnel (with diverse types of explosion and fragmentation, reinforced or not) and with self guided (fire and forget). Each one weighs 47 Kg., with 20 % of useful load (warhead), it is guided by laser with diverse technologies and has a range of 8 Km. The effect of a volley of several of them on a block of houses of adobe or masonry is devastating. But it guarantees the elimination of the human selected target.

The equipment of the base is very simple and highly elaborated: the remote control of the drones, several screens and a pedal, in front to the ergonomic chairs of the pilots. The drones have cameras that transmit their views to the pilots in land. A deliberate observation precedes an assault. The pilot of the drone and the controller of the camera, which form one «killer team», observe to his «designated aim» during the whole day, checking his activities. The assault would be realized when, for example, his family has gone shopping. In fact, all the «teams» talk about an «established intimacy» with the Afghan families, observed during up to weeks. Thing that, for example, the foreign soldiers of the ISAF on the area would not know. Neither it seems, according to the medical statistical studies realized, that the pilots and observers were affected by the enemies dead in an important way. Also they reject that their work is like a video game. Though some of them argue that they do not know any video game that is required to observe the aim for hours.

The US Air Force of the Pentagon possesses more than 1300 drones pilots, being employed at 13 bases in the USA. And he would need at once approximately 300 more, at least. The majority of the military missions are in Afghanistan. The Pentagon calculates that for 2015, the Air Force will have to count with 2000. Already he trains more pilots for drones that for the conventional flights: 350 in 2011. And from 2012 the formation is specific for them: the pilots only pass 40 hours on board of a Cessna, without flying in fighters or bombers, learning to direct a drone. The chief of the Air Force HHQQ, general Norton A. Schwartz, recognized that the pilots of drones might overcome the classic ones in the next years. The halo and the combat pilot’s profession change for that of “armchair screen viewer civil servant”. And air bases in the USA increasingly stop dealing with traditional flights «to «direct» drones.

In November, 2011, after an assault with drones in the border with Afghanistan, where died at least 24 Pakistanis soldiers of a control fort, Pakistan blocked the way of the logistic convoys of the NATO following the routes of Khyber and Shaman to Afghanistan, from Peshawar. They are two crucial routes in order that the soldiers of the ISAF, that have used them during the last 10 years of asymmetric combats, receive fuels, equipments, provisions and military material. The Pakistani Defense minister, Ahmad Mukhtar, indicated at the end of 2011, that they might reopen them to the ISAF, if they pay for it. And, according to sources of the Pentagon, Pakistan forced them to dismantle also a platform of drones installed in a base in the southwest of the country, principally manned by the CIA. Washington lost temporarily one of his more powerful weapon: the permission to throw missiles from the not driven planes against the insurgents in the provinces of the northwest of Pakistan, tactics that generalized there from 2008. In turn, Panetta, also indicated then that the USA is «coming to the limit of his patience» with Pakistan,»for his disability to act against the armed groups in the tribal zones». At the beginning of 2013 the drones pulverized the so called mullah Nazir in the province Pakistani of Southern Waziristan (in the tribal zones). The volley of rockets thrown to reach him, also killed two of his more nearby collaborators, Rafey Khan and Atta Ullah, who were accompanying him in the vehicle. Already the USA had previously realized several assaults to finish with his life. This guy belonged to the «neutral» Taliban in Pakistan. And, at least, it was giving cover, helps and logistic support to the members of al-Qaeda and to the Afghan Taliban, who operated at the other side of the border. And probably he was a collaborator of Pakistani «authorities» during some long periods. It is confirmed by the fact that in November, 2012 Nazir was object of an unsuccessful suicide attack at Wana’s market, the provincial capital.

In a declassified report of the Central Command of the Pentagon, published in December, 2011, is assured that «the catalyst of the assault was the opening fire by the PAKMIL (the Pakistani Army)”. But are added that «the cooperation and collaboration in the border were disabled by a mutual distrust climate»; that the orders given by the NATO «were lacking clarity and precision», and that the goal of the mission was «inadequate». The final result was that the Marines’ James Mattis, in charge of the Central Command, ordered a series of changes in the protocols for the frontier operations. And, would not it be that for routine and lack of commitment with the missions, those which existed were not fulfilled well? Finally, bureaucracy will kill the initiative and the inventiveness. And it will turn out that, as with the black greyhound of the Han Chinese, when, being tied, he was asked to catch unattainable hares…

The mutual distrust exists in all the cooperation areas between the USA and Pakistan. Since both countries were sealing an alliance after 11-S, to fight al-Qaeda, the Congress of the USA has sent $ 20000 millions as «economic aid» to Islamabad. The real and practical results of this «alliance» are lean and scanty and the loyalty of Pakistan to the interests of the USA, for which this collaboration is paid, is questionable. Because Pakistan keeps his firm loyalty to the aims of his great or national strategy. Several members of the USA Congress asked for a change of approach in his relations in this geostrategic region. The representative to the Chamber, Duncan Hunter, declared that «Afghanistan needs economic and political stability, to guarantee that the victory of the USA is lasting. And the relation between the USA and Afghanistan must be also a point of interest, not only for the future of Afghanistan, but for the whole region». And Frank Wolf indicated: «It is clear that to manage to triumph in Afghanistan, we must solve first a series of problems in Pakistan. To obtain a military victory in Afghanistan is a thing, but our general success depends on more factors».

The authorities of Pakistan and Yemen, allied of the United States against al-Qaeda, have protested several times, so much for the violation of theirs sovereignties with war actions, as for the death of people who did not have any relation with the conflict. And they warn that this war carried out secretly, destabilizes them and gives arguments to the jihadists.

(to be continued)

THE BEGINNING OF A CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA II.

(continuing)

About the «Muslim Brothers» (MB) as political modern «organization» there is profusion of available information, which is constantly updated. But the MB are different from a «political association», according with our Western use and understanding. Their function is eminently social in a wide and deep sense. Like is the Islam as religion. That is based on five props represented by a «opened hand». The jihad is added to those, as a collective blood effort in Al-lâh’s path, for the defense and extension of the lands of Dar-al-Islam. The Islam expresses by sacred actions (rites), necessary to be imbued and blooms in the personal and collective soul of the believers. And these «acts and ritual actions», from the Salat (his daily prayers, which re-join the whole present group), passing for the Roza or fasting in the Ramadan month and the Hajj or multitudinous peregrination to the Mecca, to the Zakat or charity (expressed as canonical alms for the Umma, administered by the ulemas, imams or sheiks). They are collective and highly composing the local or regional Muslim community. The MB are like a legal «confraternity», with the due distances, of the Islam. And with the Zakat they support services of social attention of all kinds (schools and madrasas, clinics, hospitals, help to persons and families). These forge the community in a «unit of general action» effective and resistant. That is of very difficult repetition or reply for the laymen, the atheists and other potential enemies.

On February 4, 1982, after a time of pacific active opposition, the Syrian MB Sunnis, tried an armed revolt in Hama’s city against Hafez al-Assad. His brother Rifaat al-Assad directed the military repression. Surrounded, isolated, without heavy armament, or supplies, the uprising MB were squashed by February 28. It is calculated in more than 20 thousand the rebels dead men during in the combats and in the later pursuit and mopping up. The consulted values range between 10 thousand and 40 thousand. Which indicates that they neither are checked, are not even trustworthy, coming from antagonists sources or fickle authors.

It was the epoch in which these mobs were not constituting a part of a social extensive, deep and determined action. But rather an activate «rebel military area». That was seeking to attract, after his first armed successes, wide sectors of the Sunnis Syrian population. Then, they were seditious without sufficient popular support. Not all the MB were even revolted. And that, therefore, could and must be submitted or swept by the established authorities, as irretrievable and odious rebels.

The dynastic government of the Assad and his political equipment have stopped forming a socialist and national regime a lot of time ago. As they neither represent or defend, nor integrate, the particular and collective interests of their nation. Now only support and protect the members of the social religious oligarchy. That monopolizes and distributes in different degrees the institutional, social and economic power of Syria. The Syrian regime is crystallized, without fluency, so much socially, as ideologically and administratively. And is turning into the shell of a «social political fruit», shriveled, sterile and empty.

A Panorama of national and military Strategy of the Civil War in Syria.

Strategically and in the medium term, the regime of the Assad and his institutional skeleton of the Baaz lay party and their supporters of the Republican Guard and the Air Force, the chiefs and many officials of the Army and the high ranking posts in the Administration, is finished.

Their outrages, the social fractures and the grinding time applied and caused to their heterogeneous people are too much. In order that the beginning revolutionary process (of abrupt change of regime and of political structures) has an acceptable and permanent “reverse” in Syria.

Operatively and in the medium term also, the SNA «monitored and encouraged» by the Republican Guard and the Military Security, has a wide operational movement capacity; a consistent logistic network of stores, warehouses, long distance transport and distribution transport and an IT system, that allows the control and direction of her; a sure flow of armament and equipments for replacement and a simply resounding combat capacity, against their armed semi regular and irregular enemies.

In this level of activity, it is of emphasizing the absence of the Syrian Air Force, in the combats, harassments and skirmishes that take place. It is an Army branch, technical, minority and loyal to the al-Assad, where came from daddy Hafez. That would act as air support, rebel movements interdiction and bombardment of their volatile and slightly definite “support rears” and bases of all kinds. She does not have counterinsurgency specific planes. That allow, flying at low speed, to fix the target and concentrate in it the fire, minimizing his action over not belligerent. As those of the Bronco and his derivatives family and even the old Mig-17.

Then, her employment in a revolt against poorly armed rebels and with diffuse and intermingled “fronts” with populations and neighborhoods of cities. It might give place, though more remotely that in the Lybian case, to the decision of a “military foreign intervention” of variable implications against the regime. The intervention, in this case, with the thorny and difficult political and geostrategic exposition that imply: the reluctance to her of China and Russia; the frontier nearness of The Lebanon and Iran;the natural and inconvenient allies of the regime alauí (chii) and the considerable major population of Syria, in comparison with Lybia. So, she Is stopped by the lack of direction, leadership and moral courage and of ideological and political definition of the so called Western «powers». The artillery, which is less visible and spectacular for the present and absent public, is freely used by the SNA, including the heavy organic tubes of the infantry. It is of emphasizing that in the Eastern Front war, the campaign, heavy and reactive artillery caused up to 45 % of the total losses of both rivals, against to 5 % attributed to the assault artillery and other 5 %, to the aviation. And 35 % of the losses assumed by the heavy organic weapons of both infantries. And this, taking apart that other tasks of the artillery also were to disorganize the enemy movements, to destroy equipments and fortifications and the harassment.

Tactically, the Syrian regime supported by the SNA is in conditions to defeat indefinite but not perpetually all his armed opponents. Any rebel armed force that faces him directly or that tries to defend her positions in a rigid defense without yielding space will be annihilated. The only opportunity that the armed opponents have is precisely not to be drawn by the Army to a lost combat in advance. His technologies and tactics must be the constant and far-sighted mobility; the dispersion and the infiltration, for the moment, in the urban fighting; the small, dispersed and more or less simultaneous or sequential actions in a sensible area; the echeloned escape; the fight with very limited goals and with advantageous temporary conditions; the systematic giving up of positions, forcing the enemy to deploy and prepare again. They can win for the rebel armed forces the necessary time to survive. And to manage to glimpse the victory, against the brutal national and international, political and social wear, which will suffer Bachar al-Assad’s regime, in exponential proportion to the repression time he exercises.

THE BEGINNING OF A CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA

The Syrian troops cause hundreds of dead and injured civilians in their attack to Homs’ city since Friday, 3rd of February. Justifying themselves with making “hot pursuit” of a group of supposed regular rebels in retreat. These actions in force spread already to other cities and small populations of the west of the country. This would be the summary of the news that are received from Syria during February. And with them an important qualitative change has taken place in this masked war. That is increasingly near to burst out and to develop and spread, with the typical characteristics of an armed sustained internal conflict.

Geographical Conditionings of the military Theater of Syria. His operational Characteristics in the Modern War.

Syria is fundamentally a flat country. The life and activity of his inhabitants is assembled and supported by 2 great rivers, the Orontes, which flows from north to south, and the high section of the Euphrates, which crosses his extensive and desert plains of the East, in south-east direction. A thin heights chain, the Ansariyya, which extends in its southern part in the Antilibano and Hermon mountain ranges, now close to Damascus, limits his narrow coastal plain, with Mediterranean crops. At the east of this heights succession, the Orontes, which feeds the irrigation of different crops from the Gab natural depression, allows different urban emplacements, principally Hama and Homs, from north to south. Around the Euphrates, the life sustains, thanks to the irrigations from the river and Tabqa’s dam, in the cities of Raqqa and Day the-Zawr and other minor populations.

As we have seen, the Syrian territory offers a favorable area for the operational movement and marches of the mechanized and motorized units and small units. That are capable of rapidly crossing large and surprising distances for their enemy. Using for it departure bases in their operational rear. This allows also that, any semipermanent concentration of the Syrian Free Army (SFA) could be easily reached, isolated and annihilated by the National Syrian Army (NSA) of Bashar al-Assad.

The Prolegomena of the Civil War in Syria.

Till now the combats between the rebels and the NSA were harassments, skirmishes, ambushes and small assaults to populations, which did not have the character of a «circle and siege», even partially and temporarily. All those had two key characteristics: they were very limited in time and did not have any operational projection. The falls of both «rivals», compared with those of any armed conflict that boasts, were ridiculous. On the other hand, many «minishocks» were not even detected by the normal observers or the international press.

The NSA has made one more step towards the crushing of the revolt, still in his tender buds. But already armed and spreading in «spots» over the whole west of the country. Using also in his «task», the artillery, the infantry heavy weapon and the heavy direct fire of the tanks. Heavy fire that, till now, seeks to sow the panic between the enemy soldiers and his civil supporters and the neighbors of the redoubts and strong temporary rebel points. Without that, with the direct and indirect support of their fires, take place military ground actions of operational transcendence. Only there happens the employment of «groups» of snipers by both parts. The select military men infiltrate and establish themselves, forming a short, discontinuous and broken front line, that covers a sector or strip of great frequency of movements in the population or city. And the rebels realize the neutralization action of the military snipers. And, while the panic produces the people’s move out, but rarely the flanks overflow, the soldiers advance, rolling in the created «emptiness». But without penetrating in it in force and decisively, to dismantle the rebel defense. Or to divide in sectors the enemy enclaves, as maneuver before their mop up by parts.

The self named Syrian Free Army in the Syrian Civil War.

It is a conglomerate of dispersed and unlike forces. That come from the intermittent desertion of small groups of members of the different forces of the NSA. There do not exist elements of the Air Force, which we know, between the rebels. The SFA is far from constituting an organic stable and consolidated structure. His order of battle is constituted, in his pinnacle, by the regional «brigades». These operate tactically in the “urban bed” of the Orontes. Looking only for limited goals of harassment or sudden attacks against the security forces and local important authorities. They do not have intention of defending the goals that are occupied. And they shelter at once, more or less deployed, in the nearby mountain chains. Or, forming small but integrated units, in some neighborhoods of the turbulent cities of Homs, Hama and other populations.

This rebel Syrian army, is better qualified and trained that the local «brigades» (hundreds of Lybian improvised «qatibas», in the style of «sans cullottes» or of the Iranian «basijs») of the questionable Libyan National Counsel of Transition. At least, his men possess a unit of doctrine, regulations and armaments. They have plenty of the varied personnel weapons, including the RPG family and her improved HEAT rockets of hollow lcharge and free flight and some heavy infantry armament (mortars and machine guns). His great weakness is his penury of armored vehicles, of artillery and of the antitank organic weapons of the companies and the specific battalions for antitank fighting. And the lack of a logistic stable network, sufficient and provided regularly.

Here also exists the social psychological phenomenon of raising in 2 or 3 degrees the category, the real size and the capacity of the real deployed and operative units. And that, for stale, does not cheat anybody.

Other active Protagonists of the Civil War in Syria.

The Syrian Army is the army of the nation. And it is formed proportionally as her, by a majority of sunnies recruits. That is which feeds, together with NCO s and junior officials of same origin, as an exuberant nursery, the ranks of the FSA. The Army is formed by approximately 200 thousand persons, most of recruit. The potential of the nation for a supported annual recruitment is around 220 thousand men. And it can reach even more than 320 thousand persons, with the first mobilization. Army is integrated by 3 army corps and varied and numerous independent units, with all the branches and available services. Within his upbringing is included a «political indoctrination». Not as severe, extensive and constant as that in the Communist armies, that look to imbue them with hatred towards the Zionist enemy and with loyalty to the Government and the Party.

The Army is «observed and controlled» by a younger brother of Bashar, Mahir, from his headquarters of the Republican Guard (the Haras al-Jumhuriyya). And by his brother-in-law Asef Shawkat, who directs the whole State Security, through his different institutional branches. In all the military «units» are «observers» of the Military Intelligence. Also there are several «Special Forces»units, formed exclusively by alauits volunteers, that nowadays received the joint name of «Force of Rapid Deployment», at the usage of other national armies. They are light infantry reinforced units, with the highest level in motivation, training and combat readiness.

If we want to speak about the combative efficiency of the Syrian Army, we have to depart from his specific “combat capacities». Definite and calculated by colonel Trevor Dupuy. And that refer to real values exhibited in conflicts. The last ones, calculated from the Yom Kippur’s War, were giving a value of 2,54 Syrian soldiers for one of the Tsahal. This was placing them over Jordanians and Egyptians, with values below 2. For more than 20 years, an improvement is perceived in the quality of the military personnel. And the junior officials receive now more tasks and are promoted also by his value, within the habitual parameters of the Arabic armies.

In this multicolored social military scene, are also present a few purely local autonomous militias, without operative connection between them. They do not exist in all the places and neighborhoods. There are out of the Baaz and his politician paramilitary militias that, for the moment, are inactive. Those try to keep a minimum of social internal order and the safety and the movement of the citizens and goods in the different enclaves, small populations and slums where they act. Their armament is merely the infantry personnel weapons and hunting firearms, in very varied number and composition depending on their location and contacts. Both the «task groups» of the SNA and the rebel bands keep, in this period of development of the fighting, a tolerant status quo with these civil militias. Which realize a suitable civil police labor for all.

In many alauits neighborhoods operates a paramilitary governmental militia (the «habiha»), formed by select militants of the Baaz. In different Sunnis neighborhoods act irregular armed rebels from the Muslim Brothers. It is very scanty the presence of radical religious Salafists and his furthermore exiguous local appendices. The past suicide attacks in Damascus were ascribed to them. This introduces a “social instability factor” in the “real parameters” of this war. That performs major effect and importance, that would correspond to it by the number and aggressiveness efficiency of these social religious radical Islamic. Finally, there also are «Sunnis irregular volunteers» from Iraq, without pays since the retreat of the USA. That would be crossing the Syrian border and her Eastern desert, to join the armed fight against the regime of the Baaz.

(to be continued)

A THEORY OF THE CONTEMPORARY WARS II.

(continuación)

The Last Operational Projections opposite to the Most recent Threats.

The balance of the nuclear weapons between both great atomic hegemonic powers («guides and leaders» of their partners), is defined by the new START Treaty. This has been ratified on December 22, 2010 by the American Senate. And is hoped that the Russian Duma ratifies it, after her established by protocol study, in an only voting at the beginning of 2011. This new agreement replaces the START of 1991, which expired on Saturday, the 5th of December, 2009.

The START 2 supposes a qualitative and substantial limitation of the number of heads and nuclear strategic vectors of the USA and Russia. Far are the times in which the number of operational, stored and dismantled by pieces nuclear devices were reaching 50000 between both. By 2013, each country will deploy only 1550 strategic nuclear warheads and will have 800 carrying and multicarrying vectors for them: submarines, free flight rockets, ballistic rockets and planes. Also is established a new system of inspection of the arsenals and nuclear means.

Several are the deficiencies or topics not solved by the Treaty. One is the not limitation to developing the defense systems against the vectors. Also is kept the storage freedom of not operational warheads and of deployment of the atomic tactical weapons. Between both «models», each signatory power can have nowadays near 6000 warheads. The tactical nuclear weapon, destined to the battlefield, can be an intermediate step in a direct warlike confrontation between nuclear powers. Before using the nuclear strategic volleys against the operational or deep enemy rears. The USA claims that, at least, the last two topics been an object of a later treaty.

The rigorous limitations of the nuclear weapons do not eliminate them. No weapon has never been abolished, once acquired and extended the technology for his manufacture and use. It is necessary to learn to coexist indefinitely with them. An excessive control (very few explosive heads and vectors) does that they all are directed to attack the enemies population and industrial centers. This paradoxically goes in opposition with the pacifists aspirations. When the number of weapon systems overcomes a survival or practical threshold, it allows to follow an atomic flexible, variable and staggered strategy. In her, many of the vectors are pointed to destroy the enemy vectors in the diverse phases of his path to the goals: in and over the hostile territory or platform; in ballistic or autonomous flight towards the goal and over the own territory, both at high and very low level. This keeps limited the number of heads destined against populations and industries. Even it allows their tactical employment against profitable goals of military enemy concentrations, specially before reaching in force the forward limit of a principal defense position.

The modern communications have rushed, marking character, into the contemporary wars: the wireless or waves of wide spectrum; the road networks and the diverse engine vehicles. A special challenge, which appears in all the coercive conflicts, not necessarily armed in all his phases, is the so called cybernetic war. Made concrete in the attacks to the «enemy» across the universal wireless communications network. These aggressions are capable of penetrating the first and second levels of security lines, most known or common. And to commit an outrage against the databases and the processes of the normal computers of companies, individuals and institutions. Until a few years ago, only the developed states had access to this vanguard technology. And this also connects the 3th and 4th generations wars: the employment of the cyberattacks is not already only in hands of the big powers. As example, driving mad the computers of the hostile plants of enrichment of the uranium 235. Today, small nations and groups of fanned rebels or of conceited little rascals, with certain knowledge and lean resources, can realize successfully cybernetic assaults at certain level.

In the last decades, the wars are showing in very asymmetric levels of means and efforts confronted. So much is so, the Americans are called them wars of 4th generation or asymmetric wars. But they are nothing more than the old guerrilla wars of the History. And, often also, of national liberation. Let’s not forget that always the rebellious and insolent enemy is despised. He is judged by the laws of armed sedition and attack against the National Security. From May, 1808 Napoleon so had in consideration the Spanish. Or the European powers to the nascent nations in Africa and Asia, after the World War II, from Algeria up to Indonesia, passing to Angola (the Portuguese were saying that she was a national province) and Vietnam.

In these irregular wars many of the parameters of the previous wars are absent. There is no declaration of war by the Legislative Power of the strong or military contender. The victory is not obtained occupying the enemy territory. The military means lose a part of his leading role, in favor of the social, economic and political means, necessary to gain the will and the fervor of the societies at the stack. The treatment and the care given by the contenders to the civil population of the guerrilla infected territory is fundamental in the development and the result of the conflict. The duration of these wars is major than that of the conventional wars. The time, necessary in order that the rebels make and develop their total war effort, works, in general, in favor of the weak or irregular contender. The military means are not adapted, at first, to the type of fighting that is asked to them. Neither exist clear goals, nor territories at stake, nor front lines or enemies deployments, nor strengthened positions. If the guerrilla are it sufficient skillful and steady, to not directly and unnecessarily confront her chronic weakness to the enemy strength.

The Great Operational Lines of the Counter Guerrillas Forces.

Nowadays, in West, in Europe, the exterior leading role of the conventional armed forces seems to center in them, throughout the time and in varied theaters. The military western action opposite to their exterior irregular global threats demands an effective, light and mobile counterinsurgency forces, specialized in not orthodox tactics and technologies, as part of the conventional troops. That must always operate in conjunction with the national forces of the countries infected by irregular hostiles and supported with decision by the own economy and the diplomacy. This will strengthen their missions and compounded role, The counterguerrillas forces must not be enslaved to the strategies and tactics of the conflicts of the second and third generation or classic contemporary ones. Though these could arise punctually in the armed conflicts with the «urchin States» of each time (for example, Iran, North Korea or Venezuela).

Some of the operational characteristics of this different type of war, but not new, are:

To always avoid a protracted war. With her the enemy organizes, spreads and strengths, sometimes irreversibly. While the military men lose way, get angry and weaken. The war of Afghanistan is squarely in this long critical period.

To always attack the concentrations and the rebel bases. These are the hard and conventional goals that they offer to the military forces. To always defend and support the own communications and to attack those of the enemy. To take advantage for it of the light armored vehicles mobility and of the aircraft, which neutralize the information of the different enemy observers.

To keep the passive defenses of the war to the possible minimum. The big «protective» and costly barracks in relatively calm zones, only serve to socially and military isolate the regular forces, from the fluid and active environment of the irregular fight. If the military forces were initially not enough, is necessary to concentrate them temporarily in fewer zones and to promote between the population the self defense forces. To always use a constant, creative and energetic patrolling. So much for the exploration and the attack, as to hinder and isolate the guerrillas from the friends or neutral populations and to cut their communications. In both cases, is necessary to keep mobile, even airborne forces, to give them supports. To use the concentrations of regular military forces only to attack the guerrilla bases or to surround and chase his operational concentrations.

This will keep the initiative and the surprise, created by the regional network of small light “action units”, in hands of the military men. That by formation, training, means and vocation should clearly overcome the hostiles in the military operations. The principal goal is not to keep a “front line” or a «cultivated field» of barracks, redoubts and forts through a whole country or strategic region. But to active destroy the combat capacity and the operational movement capacity of the armed rebels.

And only the military «initial» and continued successes, will lay the foundations for a firm, irreversible and progressive pacification of the different regions of the country.

Let’s see now succinctly the possible distribution of the military bases depending on the enemy activity. In the enemy most favorable zones, the military positions must be solid and resistant, few and with a bigger garrison. In these areas must predominate the exploration of the bands and the major offensive operations against them, over their bases, concentrations, refuges and passages.

In the zones where the rebels try to settle, progress and manage to dominate the civilians, the military positions will be more numerous and with fewer troops. These are the more changing zones, of more irregular war, of combat meetings (the ambush is it) more frequent. Here is decided, first, the advance and the progress and, finally, the victory of one of both contenders. The enemy communications and the rebellious centers in these areas are the operative goals of the loyal forces, together with the defense of the populations. Resting, partly, on local self-defense forces, reinforced by highly mobile military patrols, even transported by helicopters. Assured the defense of an area in these zones, is possible to demand loyalty to the protected population. And to begin the labors of national economic support and civic rearmament.

In the most loyal or neutral and pacific areas is necessary to test the technologies and the methods of sincere and effective approximation to the population. The self-defense native forces, supported by military mobile patrols, in charge a manageable zone, must support here the weight of keeping their own security. In this zone can be located the helitransported and the mechanized sufficient reserves. To be sent to other 2 kinds of operational zones in support or assault operations. Also the brigades of economic support and of civic rearmament, can have here his stores and central big barracks.

When scanty military means are available and the enemy sustain an all-out war, is it possible to fight against armed and motivated rebels?

Let’s see a historical example of the action of military forces against insurgents, in unfavorable conditions for them. The German antipartisans forces in the USSR always tried not to be forced by the guerrillas to the passiveness of the garrison or the escort. In heir manual of «War against the Bands» they were establishing that » the initiative must be always ours. Even if the commander only has a small force at his disposition, he must not show failures in his resolution. If it is possible, every action of the bands must be replied».

The Germans not only were prevented in his operations against guerrillas by a men’s habitual inferiority. But, also, by the heterogeneous quality that they were having. His anti partisans troops were consisting of an always variable combination of forces of diverse origins and qualities: borders troops and German security troops and policemen; security troops of his allies in the East Front, specially Italians and Rumanians; and a high-colored mixture of «Russian» allied forces of security and of self-defense, sometimes insecure. The hard core of the units were the Germans. In the positions usually were not homogeneous troops. In them the qualities were intermingled, in order that the more mope or novice was encouraging by the presence of the forte. And it remove from him the thoughts of weakness or desertion. Before the inability to garrison her rear in the whole territory conquered from the USSR, at west of an imaginary line between Leningrad and Stalingrad, the Germans had to select very well the points to garrison. These rarely were possessing more than one platoon of counterguerrilla forces. In addition, it was thinking that with 4 or 5 men, the position could be defended for a time. While, the rest, in 1 or 2 patrols, were going out to chase the partisans in the nearby villages, to monitor their vital line of communications or to support other positions. When new units were created or if there was a temporary «surplus» of anti partisans forces, they were formed exploration and combat patrols. Something like a reconnaissance in force forces, to locate and to scourge the guerrillas. When it was necessary to realize an offensive major action, before a guerrilla threat or the location of an important concentration, even were temporarily brought troops from the first line (of the operational zone) for the assault and destruction of those, generally looking for his encircle and annihilation. I

It is true that the German results were limited. And also it is true that the principal operational goal of his anti partisans forces was fulfilled. The lines of supplies from Germany, Poland and Romania were kept reasonably opened up to the rears of the German forces and their allies in the East Front. And the men, armaments, equipments, supplies and goods flows that they received was constant. To allow the gigantic effort of war against the almost inexhaustible resources of the USSR. Million Soviet prisoners were sent to the Reich and to there came back countless units and men of the Wehrmatch.

THE HUNT FOR BIN LADEN

The small units attacking with limited aim (a deep incursion, the capture of a critical position, the rescue of a personality, an ambush) constitute a military closed «system». This condition imposes a few specific characteristics in his «interfaces of action» with the enemy. That not always are identical to those of the fight of units and big units, especially in the limitation of the available means and of the time of action.

The units so committed must impose rapidly and keep a combative superiority on the enemy. To be able to obtain the local and temporary supremacy, which allows them to obtain the above mentioned limited aims. The characteristic or the factor of the conception of his mission is the simplicity. The characteristics of their preparation are the intelligence, the security and the training. The characteristics of their action are the surprise, the speed of action and the commitment of the participants in the mission.

«The Hunt for Bin Laden» is publicly treated by sufficient profusion and diffusion, as for his advertising, political, legal, human and technical characteristics. Now we will analyze the tactical and operative particularities that characterized it.

It took to the CIA almost 9 years to find Bin Laden from his «escape» in the autumn of 2001. Though then they had him at hand, scared and gentle.

In the autumn of 2001 took place the rapid crumbling of the Taliban regime of Afghanistan. It was a precarious and bad structured State, which was giving cover and logistic support to the headquarters of al-Qaida. This, together with his «escort agents», a small group of active members and training proselytes, gathered in time, forming an extensive and lax marching deployment. And they slipped, following the narrow and steep routes that the zone was offering them, for the Afghan mountains up to Tora Bora. It began then, in December, 2001, the great operation of search and capture of the maximum leader of to al-Qaida. That was the direct and declared person in charge of the attempts of September 11 against the USA.

They met for it near 100 specialized Americans groups in «long range independent operations», in the zone in which it was supposed that Bin Laden was hiding. Why they did not got or killed him? Possibly, if they were Israeli commands, they had achieved it. In his day, according to the reports that have been appearing to the public, they said that it was by «lack of means». «We needed more soldiers there!”, declared the agent of the CIA Gary Bernstein. During his testimony, he assured that «we might have finished everything there». In a 50 pages’ report published in 2010, are mentioned the testimonies of several military American at charge. They saw how his High Commands were denying them, for example, a thousand necessary men, according to them, to turn off the entrances and exits to Pakistan, or several support bombardments, without definite goals.

Did they need more than 100 elite commands for an operation of search, circle and annihilation of an enemy irregular group? That would be limited to the approximate zone where the enemy tracks and their electronic sensors, satellites, spies and intelligence agencies, were locating the enemy. Surrounded that zone, by means of a double ring, not necessarily continuous, but effective, the commands would penetrate centripetally in the suspicious area. Acting simultaneously, patiently, methodically and secretly, like a «swarm» of small units. Where the flank and the rear of every small unit would be defended by his initiative and offensive activity. And by the «influence» radiated by a nearby unit companion. Also they imputed part of the responsibility in the flight to a “falcon” like Donald Rumsfeld. In those days, they say now, Rumsfeld declared that if the USA was so hard in Afghanistan (for cleanly capturing the person in charge of that treacherous and civil tragedy?), it would wake an anti-American major feeling up that the already existed then. And because of it, he was more in favor with a «more «light» tactics, with controlled bombardments and the collaboration with the Afghan military men. This turns out to be neither coherent nor credible.

The failure of the operation constituted a decisive strategic failure. In fact, for years there has not been trustworthy information of Osama’s whereabouts, as admitted the secretary of Defense Robert Gates, on December 7, 2008. And now Al Qaida is renewed and spread. And Bin Laden, as the dead Che, inspires a new generation of Islamic extremists, spread over numerous countries.

Justice was done, though it was not according to all the laws.

The society has two enemies: those who do not fulfill the laws and those who fulfill them strictly. Between the last, in their legalistic paroxysm, are those who generated the Inquisitions and the pursuits in the History.

The military unit chosen to carry out the «Operation Geronimo» was the US Navy Seal. This is the unit of the Navy in charge of the punctual special actions by sea, air, and land. The Seals were created at the end of the decade of the 50 of the 20th century. On having appreciated the need to possess polyvalent military men, extremely prepared and capable of acting in any area in demanding conditions. At the beginning of the 60 and for desire of the president Kennedy, they began to act in Vietnam. The general formation of a Seal extends during years of hard work. The Seal receives between 37 thousand and more than 60 thousand Euros a year. His meticulous, precise, hard and dangerous work is not compensated economically. To satisfy his love to the militia, his vocation of service (this one is taught to him), his love to the mother land and his commitment with his colleagues and the unit are his principal pay. The «unit 6» of the Seals, a group of elite of a score of men, took part in this mission, taking charge of the principal aims. It is said that the admiral in chief directed the operation. The nature of the Seals, the structure of the airborne subunits participants and of the transport and supports, were elements that contributing to the simplicity of the mission, as they were adapted perfectly to it.

The training and the test of the mission were not neglected, in spite of the enormous general experience of the men. Before the activation of the unit in Jalalabad, this was trained in a «model», which was reproducing faithfully the facilities, the extension and the characteristics of Bin Laden’s mansion and the bordering areas. «Essay model» was raised probably in one of more or less protected training bases of the Seals. And this extended for approximately 6 weeks, with intervals. During this phase the factor security of the mission was kept, because the tests and practices that the Seals realize are varied and changeable.

The attacking unit deployed in her principal operational base at least approximately 10 days before, to not increase her stress and to facilitate the final adjustment. The Taliban enemy, nearby, observant and vaporous, faithful tale-bearer to al-Qaida, was not capable of detecting her activation. The security factor was kept unscathed during the whole great phase of preparation of the mission.

In the evening of Sunday, the 1st of May, the chief of flight of the force of transport took the command of the operation and ordered the takeoff of the helicopters in their base near Jalalabad. The force of transport was coming from one of the 82 or 101 Airborne Divisions of the US Army. The flight to the objective, in a new moon night, followed up to 3 different directions, not to call the attention of observers or onlookers in land. The paths orientated East-Northeast, avoiding the nearby axis of ground communications of Islamabad-Peshawar-Khyber-Jalalabad. With it were protected the security and surprise factors of the mission, during the approximation phase. The operations force was using 4 or, possibly, 5 helicopters. They were probably of the type UH-60 Black Hawk, of the variant endowed in his knob with a pointed radar, for guided of night flights. One of them was seriously broken already in the objective and they chose to destroy it. But the remaining aircraft were sufficient to move home all the men, with their booty of information for the intelligence and the corpse of Bin Laden.

Already in the objective, the colonel chief of the assault force took the command of the operation. The crews of the helicopters, provided with means of heavy fires, took charge sealing the houses complex from the exterior. The 58 seals advanced on that from its three sides and some of them descended at the interior, over ceilings and courts, using ropes. A fraction of them formed a «ring» to isolate the complex from land. Already in the interior, most of the men took charge neutralizing the escorts and the civilians of the house complex. All they were communicated between themselves by means of a sophisticated Intranet. A special group, the «hunting team», at the command of the colonel, went for Bin Laden. The identification team was forming part of this group. Another group, the » intelligence collecting team” took charge gathering all the sensitive existing information in the great mansion. Both mission groups were dividing in subgroups, to complete rapidly their missions at the complex. Likewise, in the indicated detections all the men were collaborating inside the perimeter. Operation Geronimo culminated in around 40 minutes, the men occupied their helicopters and these departed returning home.

The operational characteristics of the «Operation Geronimo».

The simplicity allows to focus in a few critical related subaims. Using for it a limited number of men and means in an isolated «system». It is something like to look and to isolate the «limited objective» with a zoom, which crumbles and characterizes it for us. And to center in this «small giant» which occupies us. If we also manage to use, in addition, a new tactics or a new or different technology, which is original in the given situation, both the simplicity of conception and the surprise of execution will be very favored.

On September 12 of 1.943, the captain of the S. S. Otto Skorzeny realized the rescue of the Duce in his prison of the high mountain hotel in the Great Sasso, in the Apennines. The employment of gliders to assault the position, fighting against the difficult draughts (increased on having landed at the midday, for the delay in coming on) and landing in the scanty useful ground chunks, facilitated the surprise of the guarding «carabinieri». This extended, allowing Skorzeny and his team to accede to the principal building, when a General known by the «carabinieri», landed with him and he was accompanying him. The combat supremacy was achieved rapidly.

In May of 1.940, German airborne forces landed in gliders on the ceilings of Eben Emael’s Belgian fort. 78 men had to neutralize a garrison of approximately 1200 Belgian soldiers, to allow that the German ground forces should approach Albert’s channel, dominated in a great extension by the heavy artillery of the fort. Apart from the surprising disembarkation on the fort, the Germans were possessing a new weapon: the hollow load bombs. These later would find wide usefulness as antitank weapons. With them they demolished the domes and bunkers where the cannons were lodging and blocked some of the redoubts, where the soldiers that not surrendered had sheltered. The enemy remained overwhelmed and neutralized, without capacity of useful response. The arrival the following day of the German columns, specially the pioneers (engineers), precipitated the surrender of the fort Eben Emael.

The security refers principally to the stages of planning, preparation and training and, if it proceeds, to the stage of transport or insertion. It must be active and passive. Giving different information and concealing the real intentions, up to after the stage of action on the objective. The safety was supported and respected carefully along all the phases of conception, preparation and execution of the Operation Geronimo.

The necessary intelligence supposes the complete and continuously updated knowledge for the mission, in time, circumstances and characteristics that meet in it. For the characteristics of this and the exiguous specialized means of assault, the intelligence is facilitated by agencies and units foreign to those who intervene in the mission, even those of state level (singularly the CIA, the Agency of National Security, more known as NSA and the Central Security Service or CSS, which acts as link of the last one with the Pentagon).

The training must be as much generic, in the actions and different tactics, as in the specific for the planned mission. Independently of those who make the different units, it is necessary to realize the training of the coordinated actions, with the units that take part simultaneously somewhere in the mission. It is also necessary to realize a “full rehearsal” with all the characteristics of the mission, including its “foreseen duration”, with a margin of error.

The independent variable «time» introduces sometimes unexpected and unforeseeable effects in a mission like this. And not always are good. For example, a vehicle, an auxiliary machine, only present problems after X hours of severe functioning. And they do not give them in a “limited time test” or «at scale». It is good also to include some variant that represents a mistake, an unforeseen event or a loss of capacity of combat or of movement. And that the men train in correcting them or, at least, in neutralizing them with his own effort. For example, a part of the helicopters is knocked down or lands at major distance of the expected landing zone.

The surprise supposes attacking the enemy, even deployed in “prepared strengthened defense”, in an «aspect» or «flank» neglected by him in these moments. This offers to us a favorable»interface of action» to act. Always it must suppose a tactical innovation. Though also it contains technical differential or new elements, which will promote it. These were the hollow load and the flame-throwers in their moment. The surprise is the sufficient and necessary multiplier of the capacity of combat of the incursion force. That will allow her to compensate the scanty military resources that she has on the area. Together with her inconsiderate employment, carefully applied with speed. To achieve the temporary local superiority. As being an “isolated military system”, the incursion force will receive neither reinforcements, nor supplies, not any more operation time. Time is not neutral, here is her enemy.

The speed consists in consistently operating ahead the enemy in elementary successive «cycles of action», that define a full action or process. This also supposes acting with opportunity and pace (relative speed, adapted to the enemy). Let’s remember that a cycle of action has a phase of observation, other one of determination of the «situation», one of decision and that of execution. If we are «going forward» the enemy, he will be acting according to “almost instantaneous already antiquated” situations.

The speed also implies rapidly reaching the “active supremacy situation” in useful combat capacity against him. The military initial actions must be specially thoughtless, to get it. The enemy speed of reaction is always initially very slow. He will be with stupor and will try to check what happens. His phase of determination of the initial situation will get longer. A “deception action” in these moments, will lengthen the time passed up to his perceptions and determination of the real picture of the situation. For example, the utilization of the uniformity, of some equipment or the language of the enemy, by certain parts or subunits of the units involved in the action.

Once the supremacy is reached over the enemy, it must be kept always. As his loss and the scanty relative means the force locally deploys, will make its recovery very difficult. On having reached the capacity of combat supremacy, the “mission success” probabilities increase exponentially. And the vulnerability of the force will be diminished also drastically against the enemy, during her action.

The commitment of the men and commands and theirs selection qualities used will give some characteristics of moral and physical courage to their actions. These are necessary to overcome the uncertainty, the apprehension, the mistakes and the diversions, the action of the enemy, sometimes punctually critical, and to take advantage of the opportunities. The loss of comfort and the general wear does not seem that are going to have a degrading effect on the force, due to the limited action time. The commitment supposes the full knowledge of the characteristics and the transcendence of the mission and his voluntary and enthusiast assumption by all the participants. Evidently, it is presumed in advance that the chosen forces have the motivation and the necessary formation for the mission.

McChrystal, Petraeus and the Allied Strategy in Afghanistan

At the end of June, 2010, diverse analyses appeared in the written press, that brings over the possible changes that might happen in the direction of the war in Afghanistan, on the occasion of the substitution of the general in command McChrystal by the more notorius general Petraeus. The above possibility would exist if it was a question of a company, which manager or first executive had been fired. But not, it is a question of the substitution of the general in chief of a theater of operations.

The Definition of the Military Strategy for Afghanistan.

It is elaborated by the Joint Chiefs’ of High Staff (the Pentagon) and is approved by Mr. Obama. Corresponding, then, to the general in chief to develop it with his operational strategy. Where already it has a few limits his autonomy, to stamp his way and his stamp. The general of the theater of operations is a great manager, a high managerial command, of the immense means that the USA and his allies, jointed in the ISAF, put to disposition to reach the goals of the war.

The total strategy raised by the USA can be summarized in obtaining the defeat of the Taliban and the extirpation of Al-Qaeda’s extensions in Afghanistan. And in the progressive incorporation of the Afghans to the labors of public order and against insurgency, possessing a government increasingly strengthened, respected and obeyed, capable of attracting the least radical insurgency to the democracy rules. All this, intermingled with an economic support for the reconstruction, the public health, the people education and the civil infrastructures. But that reaches from the provision of the military means to the delivery of bribes, donations, incentives and sinecures to certain fighters, in order that they leave the weapons, and to civilians, in order that they facilitate information or collaborate in the multiple necessary tasks. The famous strategy against insurgency of «gaining the hearts and the minds» of the native peasantry, which dates back to the intervention in South Vietnam in the 60s, assumes in this triple aim.

The Substitution and the Loss of a Commander in chief in Operations. They had Tired and Bored up to the eyebrows the old good Stanley.

Let’s see two cases, similar but not identical, in which the loss of the commander in chief turns out to be irreparable. Sometimes the military commander constitutes a critical strategic vulnerability of his armed people, at hand of his enemies. This was the case skilfully handled by the Spaniards in the 16th century during the conquest of America. It was a question of the capture or the death of the great chief or «emperor» of the indigenous coalitions in the big countries to colonizing: Montezuma, Atahualpa. And that was possible because the «great adorned with feathers» was presiding his army in combat. This was giving a devastating blow, though temporal, at the indigenous forces. Because once turned into hostage the symbolic representation of a chief of this type was plummeting. Since the social vitality of the collectivity to which he was directing, was now demanding his renovation, as if he had died.

We have also the cases of great political military commanders, as Alejandro, Gustavo Adolfo or Napoleon. They were incorporating in them selves the essence and the virtues of a whole military style and of a political regime. That were radiating permanently to their peoples, galvanizing them for a common task of historical transcendence. His disappearance in operations had been fatal for their collective interests. As it happened in case of Sweden, with the death in combat on November 6, 1632, of his king Gustavo II Adolfo in Lützen’s battle.

Stanley McChrystal’s case was different. He was only an emphasized military man inside a professional, enormous, diversified, technical and modern army. As already he had almost 30 years of service, nearly the retirement, certain luxuries could be allowed. He was tired of interferences from the court politicians of Washington in his «way» (his kingdom was the operational strategy) of commanding the war and in the cuts that they were imposing on him to his requests of means to attend a long, unpopular and versatile war. His crime was to publicly call, in a published interview, «wimps» to some of these politicians of the rope of the “presi”, with whom it ran up in his honest way. The name defines a weak, coward, irresolute and ineffective person for the matters. His aggravating circumstances were the premeditation and the mockery that were exhibiting in the magazine.

The Coalition that General Petraeus gets.

In Afghanistan are present military forces from approximately 46 countries. Some of them are dedicated to support, garrison and rear tasks. As being a great coalition, without subordinating to it any of the interests that to each country dictate his needs and his political commitments, the coincidences between the allies are partial, have solutions of continuity and are unstable through time. This intrinsic fragility of the coalition, is born of that almost all the allies do not practice State policies. It is necessary to indicate that this owes largely to that there is not a clear perception of the Afghan problem. Not of his direct or indirect, immediate or distant nearness, to the national respective interests.

The Dutches, with approximately 2 thousand soldiers in Uruzgan’s province, at the north of that of Kandahar, have confirmed his march from Afghanistan in August of this year. By 2012 also there want to go away other 1550 Australians, which garrison this province. It is supposed that this multinational «brigade» will be replaced with efficiency with American, and especially, Afghans forces. In the province of Kandahar, the old fief of mulah Omar and the first national quarry of the Taliban, there are more than 2800 Canadian troops, joined with British and American forces. It is one of the first «fighting fronts» against the country insurgency, together with Kandahar and the eastern afghan provinces. The Canadians will move back from Afghanistan between July and December, 2011. They remain the British and the Americans.

And, which is the «vital path» (or curriculum vitae) of the British in this conflict? Of the warlike fervor of these «European technologically modern soldiers», give faith the operations carried out for 8 years in the Pashtun province of Helmand, at the south of the country. After the war of 2001, which ended with the medieval radical intransigent regime of the Taliban, around Lashkar Gal, capital of the province, approximately 8 thousand British soldiers established permanently, successively relieved by their replacements in «tours of duty». This powerful quota of professional experienced soldiers was unable in almost 8 years to fight the opium culture in Helmand. Nor to appease the province, for the effective implantation in her of the government of Kabul.

To finally achieve these goals, apparently very difficult to realize, on Friday, February 12, began the Moshtarak (United) operation in Marjah’s region, at approximately 40 km from Lashkar Gal, by approximately 15 thousand allied soldiers, from the NATO and Afghans. That had to go demonstrating that all the efforts and the money spent in the formation of his National forces, have not squandered wretchedly. The Taliban, a light irregular infantry, without aviation, with a pedestrian and insufficient logistics and without artillery, were beaten and removed from his combat positions in Marjah, dispersing finally to the bordering provinces, largely. To extend the information, see our article «Marjah’s Battle» in this Blog. Nevertheless, already the out-standing journalists (this is better than «fixed») in Afghanistan warn us, that the green outbreaks of the insurgency are appearing, as vigorous and firm renews, around Marjah and Nad Ali areas of Helmand province.

Finally, the Americans have indicated the July 1, 2011 as a deadline to initiate the retreat of his deployment. They are approximately 94 thousand soldiers in these moments and will reach 98 thousand at the end of the summer. They are spread through the whole Afghan territory, as a framework that supports and stimulates the general effort of war against insurgency and al-Qaeda. By then it is supposed that they will be enlisted, trained and equipped near 400 thousand Afghans joined the forces of Police, some regional militias and the Afghan National Army. Will they be motivated also to defend an inorganic western democracy? For the present time, the tayicos and the hazaras form most of the actual security forces of Afghanistan: there are approximately 100 thousand policemen and approximately 90 thousand native soldiers, with variable degrees of motivation, loyalty and training. In the Pashtun districts there are in general no enrollments to the national army nor to the Afghan police. A Pashtun liberation war is outlined this way inside an oppressive or neglected country towards them.

The Suicide and the Islamic Jihad II.

(continuation)

The principal branches of the Islam and their ideology.

The Sunnism, which follow nowadays 90 % of the Muslims, also accepts as Allah´s revelation the tradition (the Sunna) of the Prophet. These are his facts and his commentaries or hadices. The major or minor rigor in the selection and acceptance of this tradition characterize three of its theological schools, founded astride between the VIIIth and IXth centuries.

The most opened and flexible school, the Chafií, founded by the Palestinian al-Chafii, died in Cairo on 820 at the age of 53 years, opens an encouraging door for the pacific evolution of the Islam. She accepts also the consensus of the wise persons of the community and the analogical reasoning or qiijas, as correct ways for the adjustment of the Islam to all the times and places, from his “rural, illiterate, poor, medieval and surrounded of hostile peoples, origin”. For she starts from the hadiz: «Allah recognizes the Good in what the Muslims have judged as such «.

There exists a great ideological and practical difference between the Sunnism and the Chiism. The last feels pursued, in reason of the dynastic (the Chiism arises from the fourth caliph, Alí, cousin, son-in-law and companion of the Prophet) and the ideological orthodoxy (it admits fewer revelation sources), that it proclaims and defends. This way, it assumes historically a fatalistic, passive attitude, even of physical suffering for it, waiting for the return of the (caliph) Imam missing. Imam is the name that the political – religious guides take in the Chiism, not only the common mosques´ prayer. That one will return as Mahdi (the guided by Allah), in a given moment of the History, to make triumph the orthodox Umma (themselves).

But also cases of insurgent action have happened in the Chiism, even with certain success and popular implantation, as in Jomeini’s Iran, in The Lebanon with Hezbolah or Allah’s Party and his subsidiary Hamas, in Palestine.

The Suicide. Characteristics of the Suicides. Their Employment by the religious Fanatics.

It is not easy to make commit suicide to a normal, serene and prepared person. To commit an outrage against the similar one is the most violent act, less than 5 % of the population is «prepared» for that in a natural or innate way. And this does not want to say that they should be going to realize it. Only that are more qualified naturally to act as armed effective persons. If to this joins the survival instinct, powerful and innate in all the men, the induced suicide is something that turns out to be in general strange and difficult.

In general, in 90 % of the suicides there is present some mental distorted, affected component. If the difficulties, privations and opprobriums were affecting so much the men, to push them to the suicide, the Humanity had not survived all the punishment and displeasures that have constantly accompanied her in the develop of her history. Nobody had survived the gulags, fields of extermination and fields of reeducation raised against the Humanity by the off balance and wicked. When a person commits suicide for a loving disillusion, for example, behind it has a mental picture of melancholy, weakness, immaturity and anxiety, in a changeable and fatal cocktail, which disarms him and induces to it.

And it is not worth saying, in the actual relativism, that it is a «chosen option». Because the people die of infections, circulatory damages, cancers and accidents, and this death is not chosen. The modern societies have in the suicide one of the first not natural reasons of death. In Spain they already overcome the victims of the vehicles accidents. Nevertheless, except in some isolated country, the societies look for another side, avoiding the painful vision and without giving the due medical and psychological assistance to the affected and to their families.

To overcome the men natural repugnances to commit an outrage against others or against themselves, it is necessary to appease and neutralize temporarily the mentioned human instincts. Let’s see some motivations used for it.

A «negative» motivation is the chronic loss of the basic natural needs: sustenance, family, safety, refuge and cover, expectations and reasonable progress. It is an effective spur to induce the employment of the liberating violence to a part of the society, specially the idealistic young men. The «positive» motivation would be the economic prizes that different radical Islamic organizations give to the families of the martyrs. And these are so much the fallen in combat as the suicides.

Following the way towards the human psychology and soul, the religious motivation is another powerful mean of conviction and rooting. The suicides of the Jihad are methodically and intensely catechized. The Koranic verses related with the Jihad, are known by heart by them. The other suicides «example» surrounds them in their daily life. In the way of photos, manuscripts, testimonial videos and destiny companions. Their preachers, we refuse to call them imames, clarify their doubts and encourage them to prematurely reach the Paradise. That is destined specially to the martyrs of the Jihad.

The suicide must go unnoticed in the place chosen for the attack, by its age, genre, aspect and attitude. He has also to conceal perfectly his appliance and his equipment. To be able to approach his target and make exploit that one. His passport for the Garden of the Houris is to take with him the major number of dead and mutilated enemies. This way, the physical damages that are caused around the point of explosion are «not looked for, collateral damages».

The Islam, his religious Groups and the Suicide.

What his counselors and co religionists do not say to the suicide in formation, is that his stay in the mentioned Paradise is not eternal, but indefinite. Allah has not had reveal its duration or end. On the other hand, only there is a verse of the Koran that prohibits expressly the suicide, without spreading too much: Sura (chapter), 4, aleya 33 (29) «…Oh, believers…do not kill yourselves…». Probably it was for the natural repugnance that all the simple and primitive tribes have in committing it. On the hygiene recommendations, which in her origin all the written religions give their faithfuls, it was not necessary to insist very much for its prevention.

A «ideologist» of al-Qaida, Abu Yahya al-Libi, developed a theory of «religious» base on the «not looked for hurts», related to persons. According to her, it is allowed to their militants to kill Muslims when this is inevitable. And sometimes, more than when be inevitable, when it is also useful. This way, in a message where they assumed the authorship of an assault of August, 2009 in Baghdad, al-Qaida wished a rapid recovery the wounded sunníes and expressed her hope that the dead men should be accept by Allah also as “martyrs”. Due to the fact that al-Qaida has limited capacities to attack her western enemies, the organization supports her influence and reputation attacking from time to time in countries with Muslim majorities.

In these years, the followers of the Sunna are which are using the suicide in the Islamic Yihad. Al-Qaida, the Afghanistan and Pakistan Taliban and the members of Hamas uses it. The Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranians chiíes do not habitually use it. Though in the assault against the western forces barracks in Beirut in October, 1983, which was the presentation in society of Hezbollah, the drivers of the trucks full of explosives thrown against those, were suicidal.

Also the Iranians used their basijs militias in frontal massive assaults against the reinforced fixed positions, defended by mines fields, of the Iraqis during the war from 1981 to 1989. The basijs were «popular militias» of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Without organization, method, discipline or enough military instruction. But they were full of religious and patriotic anxieties. The last to come to the radical Khomeiní revolution, had to demonstrate their fervor and militancy. In the cities they had also turned into a problem for the clerical chiíes authorities, which canalized their redeeming impulse towards the enemy front.

During the Great Patriotic War of the USSR against Germany, an American general detached in the Front (a group of Armies) commanded by Georgi Zhukov, asked him how was that his infantry was thrown cross-country, running through the enemy minefields, to reach the forward limit of the of German defense position. It is of indicating that in the infantry were enlisted the worse formed and trained men of the Red Army: the peasants and the slightly qualified workers. The artillery, the engineers, the cavalry, the tanks and the scanty motorized units were taking to themselves the best scanty men who existed. Zhukov made clear to him that the losses that were suffering, were just about the same of an assault to a prepared German position … and was admitted than that was the case.

The men were in both cases authentic «cannon fodders». Two examples of how the chiefs of the countries domineer their peoples and how the big ones, oppress them. Without differences in the ideologies and the times.

So sensitive against the suicide it is the Islam, that the second major Islamic «organization» of Indonesia, called Myhammadiyah, has prohibited to smoke to her 30 million members. The reason is that the tobacco kills and that the Islam prohibe the suicide. Indonesia, with more than 220 million inhabitants, is the fourth country most populated in the world. It is the country with major Muslim population, approximately 200 millions, and also the third world consumer of cigarettes.

The possible actions against the Islamic violent Jihadists from the own Islam.

In the face of this own terrorism (war actions against general, innocent and indiscriminate targets), the Islamic world is paralyzed and do not knows what to say or do. The spokesmen and intellectuals affirm that the Islam is peace and tolerance. But this is not totally true, as we saw before. The majority of the Muslims take away from the attacks for opportunism, to protect the Islam, worried by the increasing rejection that it suffers in Western countries. But, when do the ulemas or the muftís intervene in the polemic? Almost never.

Never was carried out inside the Islam a deep reflection on the political and religious opportunity of the violence. Does someone know Islamic active pacifists? It is not the case that the intellectual laymen Moslem react. These are not operative in the way that we know in the West, since for a good Muslim the politics, the society and the religion form the only, exclusive and inseparable trinity established by Allah. Besides, the social and political failure of the intellectual laymen Arabs remains tied with that of the nationalistic, leftist and Europeanized elite, that stimulated the independence of the different Arabic nations after the World War II.

The Islam has to assume that the Jihad was necessary for the establishment and the defense of the believers’ primitive community, the Prophet establishing the Islamic state from the violent destruction of the jahiliyya (the existing barbarism previous to the Islam Arabic). And even the Jihad could be useful for its RAPID extension through the world, according with the existing condition of culture and development of the medieval civilizations. But its historical opportunity does not exist nowadays and then it must be replaced for «another type of EFFORT in Allah’s path». A concept that already exists in the Sunna and that might be recaptured and proclaimed by the ulemas and the pious muftis, which are the ideologists of the real and everlasting Islam. And, certainly, those enjoy the most ample political, social and economic independence: they are respected and / or fearsome by the governments in their respective countries, and are usually those who administer the Zakat or the canonical alms.

Since the emergence of 4 principal theological Sunnis schools before mentioned, the principle of the personal reflection effort, the ichtihad, got power in the Islam. The ichtihad is going to allow the development of the Arabic culture, so much for the civil aspects (sciences, trade, literature, art), as for the enrichment of its ideology. It is the base of Islamic lawyers as al-Chafii. The ichtihad is a source of brilliancy, creativity, enrichment, progress and peace in the way of the personal and collective effort towards God (this is the nucleus and the reason of the Islam), when already the Umma has spread and multiplied enormously through the world.

But, circa the XIth century (V century from the hégira or march to Medina), the theologians close the door to the ichtihad. The methodological Islamic approach alters: from then, it is imitating, repeating and following itself and abusing of the compendiums.

The Islamic Jihad and the Suicide.

The suicide is a favorite weapon of the Islamic Jihad. The suicide is for the Islamic Jihad a cheap, sufficiently abundant, effective and very asymmetric, technical and economically, weapon. The sophisticated enemy sensors are of little use against her. The protective jackets also are of little use. The armored vehicles and the buildings are of little use to protect from her. If the explosive load, her characteristics and the vector are the suitable ones. The starting carrying agent can be man or woman and adult or child. A donkey, a bicycle or a motor vehicle can cooperate in his suicidal assault. It is not necessary to militarily train too much (basic, technical and tactical trainings) a suicide.

The modern violent Muslim Radicalism.

The radical Islamic insurgents devoted themselves between the 60s and 80s in last century, to attack those that they were qualifying of corrupt and false Muslim, socialistic or liberal pro occidental, governments. Their fortune was small for all the effort done: the retreat of the Soviets from Afghanistan, with the logistic western support, and the capture of the power in Sudan, guided by al-Turabi, after they infiltrated and got strong in his Army, which is still a unique case. From 90, their terrorist aims are Western developed countries.

Their present operative characteristics are:

1) Their unnecessary and indiscriminate brutality, which discredits them before their religion.

Sura 2, aleya 10 «When it is said to them: Do not commit disorders (voice with which the crimes are defined) in the Earth, they answer: Far from it, we introduce in it the good order (the Good)».

2, 11 (12) «Alas!, they commit disorders, but they do not understand it».

28, 77 «Like Allah does the Good, also make you the good and do not foment the corruption (the Evil)» (murder of innocent and of peoples that receive you- the lands of dar-el-Ahd-, drunkenness, drugs, unnecessary damages of the things).

This way they despise and not comply with important moral aleyas, without Allah had changed these for them. Sura 2, aleya 100 «We do not abrogate any verse of this Book, nor we will make erase any one of your memory, without replacing it by other one equal or better».

2) The absolute absence of venerable and pious ulemas and muftíes in their side.

3) Their great operative decentralization owing to the universality of the Umma, which goes beyond the idea of nation or race. But that prevents them from obtaining strategic aims, though their punctual actions are important, painful and fearsome.

4) Their failure in joining actively and firmly to a social wide group, which gives coverage and permanent impulse to their movement. The most mentally ill activists are in the habit of being isolating progressively of the society (at least, emotional and ideologically) though they «live» inside it, for the sake of their violent methods, to which they sacrifice everything for the efficiency. They follow a process of segregation, purification (in their improvised and not orthodox rites, they fast, use water from Islam´s sacred places and green banners with inscriptions of the aleyas that favor their cause), consecration and radicalization. Up to coming to the death and even to the suicide in their limited actions. And then they become extinct, as weak, sterile and deviant that are, far from the Umma and her real interests.

5) The Islamic terrorists are in many places deeply ideologically and strategically divided. Though the rivals bands could occasionally offer between themselves, support, refuge, information or supplies. The Gaza strip is dominated for years by Hamas, radical fundamentalist Palestinian group of sunní orientation, in direct and violent rivalry with the Palestinian government of al-Fatah in the Jordan West Bank. In Gaza, two branches organizations of al-Qaida, Ansar al-Sunna and Ansar al-Islam, a few derisory groups, face also violently Hamas for the influence on her habitants. The Pakistani Taliban, principally the Tehrik e-Taliban group, and the independence cachemirs, periodically realize attempts against the chií minority of the country. In Iraq, al-Qaida dedicates to attack the chiís that come in peregrination from the country and Iran, to the annual acts of this religion in their sacred places of Samarra, Nayaf and Kherbala. Also did that the sunníes radical Iraqi (former public officials of the Baas and ex-members of the armed forces, generally purged without neither processes nor judgments, and regional tribal groups). That were in rebelliousness against the majority chií governments, before the so called «the sunní wake up», promoted by the general David Petraeus, who transformed them into self-defense national militias.

6) Their zeal of publicity, to which the West contributes insensitively, stupid (is not to know what should be known) and glad.

7) Their present aim is to strike any government, since the radical and aggressive caliphate in dar-el-Islam does not exist nowadays.

What is and what does mean the Jihad in the context of the Muslim revelation?

The Islam is the submission of the men to God. In its simpler meaning, is a simple faith, with external and social well definite, easy to follow and fulfill rites. The rites are canonize actions by a religion and necessary in order that it imbues in the personal and collective soul of its believers. In the Islam there exist 5 great rites, which are symbolized in its iconography by an opened hand:

The faith profession, short declaration that opens anyone the entry to the Islam. The 5 daily invocations (the Salat) to Allah. The fasting during the Ramadan´s month (the Roza). The charity (the Zakat) with the helpless, disabled and poor (in this order) of the Umma (Muslim universal community). And the peregrination to Mecca or the Hajj at least once in the life, if there are possessed enough resources, which is realized in community, congregating nowadays simultaneously several million persons, between the seventh and the tenth day of last month of the lunar calendar, Dhul i Hijja.

The Jihad, as holy war, the blooding effort in Allah’s path, is directed against those that threaten the Umma. These can be whether the hostile external unfaithful persons, as the not Muslims which coexist in dar-el-Islam, the lands where the Umma rules politically, and that have broken their «protection agreement» with it. The Jews and the Christians have theoretical right to it, as peoples mentioned in the Koran and that hold some of the books considered also as prophetic by the Islam. The Jihad is considered to be a practically equal obligation to one of the so called Five Pillars of the Islam, already mentioned.

The religious Hierarchies in the Islam. Their principal activities and roles.

In the Islam does not exist an institutionalized, universal and rigorous clergy, formed in a same way and equal in the whole Umma. To be responsible of the orthodoxy and homogeneity of the ideas, procedure and dogmas. So much it is, the official belonging to the Islam is achieved by the pronunciation of the faith profession: «there is no any more God (in Arab, Allah) that God and Mahoma is his Prophet».

As for the prominent figures, we have the ulemas or studious experts in the law of the Islam and the muftíes or lawyers entrusted to interpret the sharia or Islamic civil and penal law. Though both are totally imbricated, since the Prophet, with his hadices and other traditions or Sunna, took charge for divine inspiration giving procedure for almost all the occasions in the daily Arabic life of the 7th century.

The ulemas council, that is something like an episcopal conference, would be in every country or region the maximum Muslim authority. The most prestigious, by their formation, would come from the University of Al Azhar, in Cairo.

Next, the imames or chaplains would be entrusted in presiding the prayers in the mosques. They place for it opposite to the indicative niche, placed in the west (Mecca) wall and looking at their public. Finally there would be the muezzin or sacristans, who call five times a day, from before the dawn up to well entered the night, in order that the Muslims do their prayers of adoration and of acceptance of God’s will. The formation of the imames is totally different inside a country and not necessarily deep. Their principal skills are a good empathy with their public and a certain speech faculty. Let’s remember that the terrorist of March 11, 2004 so called The Chinese presided, as was said then, several times the prayer in the mosque of Madrid in the 30 (before M-30) street …

The fatawa (plural of fatwa) are properly the juridical decisions expressed by the mufties, in interpretation of the different situations or cases came up in the Umma. And not necessarily presented to them, as they can be dictated them on their own initiative. They would acquire this way a sense of jurisprudence body of the sharia, if really they depart from religious authorities recognized by their doctrine and knowledge sound.

This way, directly, Jomeini’s fatwa against Salman Rushdie lacked legal value, since England or France were not lands where it was possible to apply the sharia, on not having been a part of dar el islam. This improper extension supposed a dangerous and shameless interference in the political and civil matters of countries that were receiving in peace the Muslims, a part of dar el ‘ahd. Another thing is that some Muslims were ready to argue in this way and to defending it. Especially between peoples who do not know nothing about their schemes, parameters and interests.

A very serious accusation exists likewise in the Islamic doctrine, the takfir, which stems from kfur or ungodliness. With this term is designated unbeliever someone who is or tries to be a Muslim and is to be exiled of the Umma. This term is related to other one, the jahiliyya, which designates the existing barbarism previous to the Islam. On the violent destruction of the Arabic jahiliyya, the Prophet built the incipient Islamic state.

The ulemas, the law doctors, would be the ones to employ the institution of the takfir. To defining those who incur this disgrace and anathema. But the great dispersion of schools and the absence of a common universal orthodoxy (for a religion, the not negotiable only thing is the dogma), have advised that its use should be restricted. Since it might lead, in specially virulent epochs, to an extreme situation of mutual and extensive anathema, which would damage seriously the Umma.

Nevertheless, the Islamic violent fundamentalists, when it has been convenient for them, have not doubted of use the takfir. It happened in the decade of the nineties, in Algeria, between the different fundamentalist groups of the FIS, the GIA and other minor sub trends, that sometimes lasted only while their crazy guide was living. A curious thing was that the origin of many of impassioned were generally the urban poor classes, heiresses of the rural emigration. For whom the religion could have very earthly goals, and not the pious Muslims classic classes and the merchants.

The Koran and the Jihad.

We give a selection of the aleyas of the Noble Koran that treat on the Jihad. We don not use the sunna (tradition) of the Prophet, which can be an object of controversy, about its legal legitimacy, with the Chiís and other minor Islamic groups.

Sura 2, aleya 186 «Do the Holy war for Allah’s reason against those who make the war to you».

2, 187 «Kill them anywhere that you find them and expel them wherefrom they have expelled you (Andalusia, Sicily, the Balkans? But, perhaps did they come first there?)».

2, 189 «Attack them (the unfaithful persons) until there is not presently idolatry and all adoration is given to Allah». It repeats almost exactly in 8, 40 (39).

2, 212 «The war has been prescribed to you and you have taken distaste of it».

2, 214 «The temptation of the idolatry is worse than the slaughter. The unfaithful persons will not stop doing the war to you, while they have not made you resign your religion, if they can».

2, 215 «Those who leave their country and fight in Allah’s path (the Jihad) can wait for His mercy».

4, 7 «Those who obey Allah and to His Messenger will enter in the society of the righteous, of the martyrs, of the virtuosos, whom Allah has filled with His benefits».

4, 74 «That fight in Allah’s way those that change the life in this world, for that in the Last one. And that who fights in Allah’s path, as dies or turns out to be victorious, We will give him an enormous remuneration».

4, 79 «…have exclaimed: Lord, why do you order us the war? …Answer them: The possession of the life here below is small thing; the future life is the real good for those who fear Allah. Here they will not cheat you even in a filament».

4, 105 «And do not weaken in chasing these people. If you feel sorry, also they feel sorry, but you expect from Allah what they cannot hope».

9, 39 «If you do not go to the battle, Allah will punish you with a painful punishment: He will replace you by another people».

9, 92 «The weak persons, the patients, those who do not have means, will not be forced to go to the war, provided that are sincere respect of Allah and His Messenger». (This makes fall practically the obligation of the Jihad in the Umma, which must contribute this way a suitable number of muhaydins).

9, 124 «Oh, believers!, attack the unfaithful persons who surround you: that they always find in you a rough reception».

47, 4 «When you find unfaithful persons, kill them up to the point of doing with them a slaughter and put chains strongly on the captive ones to prevent them from fleeing».

47, 37 «Do not show cowardice and do not call the unfaithful persons to make the peace, when you are the strongest».

All those verses that prescribe and encourage the armed struggle in Allah’s path can be used as absolute, direct and repeated religious “indications” or orders. That employed by an “imam” or preacher, which directs the prayers and Koran readings in the mosque, and which credentials are not so much an exquisite Islamic formation of several years in a credited madrassa (Koran school), but rather to possess an empathy with his community and a certain oratory gift, can turn out to be subversive and incendiary.

(TO BE CONTINUED)

THE CAPTURE OF BIN LADEN.

Introduction.

Bin Laden is the principal responsible for the attempts of September 11, 2001. And also probably those of March 11, 2004. But in a lax way, of ideological religious sponsorship. As he was in these dates, first sheltered in Afghanistan, and later hidden in its inaccessible and intricate Eastern mountains.

Al-Qaida is the principal reference franchisor of the radical Islamic, at level of the Umma, or Islamic universal community. And this is very important, because the Islam is a very socialized religion. Neither Hezbolla, nor Hamas, nor Iran, nor the Moslem Brothers, nor Tehkrit el Taliban have Bin Laden’s or al-Qaeda’s global ascendancy in the modern radical Islam.

His strategic principal aim is to implant a universal Caliphate. And neither of the Moslem actual states serve them. Because they are heretics, as the chií Iran. Because they are «corrupt», in spite of her religious radicalism, as Saudi Arabia, in hands of the thousand (or are they seven thousand?) «princes» of the family of Ibn Saud, the State founder at the beginning of last century. Or because they are «westernized», as almost all the remaining ones, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, Tunis, etc.

It seems to be necessary, then, to capture Bin Laden or the high command of al-Qaida. Some looking for revenge for the received attacks, as Spain and Great Britain. Others, as the USA, to eradicate an islamist violent extremism. That extends his influence through the world and that from time to time commits an outrage against his country or against his allies.

Is it possible to do it? Which will be the difficulties? The direct actions against al-Qaeda, will turn out to be quite effective as are glimpsed?

The «last» Occurrence of the Military American Strategy in Afghanistan.

The general Stanley McChrystal closes the «Infernal Circle» of searching and apprehension of Osama Bin Laden. At the beginning of December, 2009, the general McChrystal, chief of the American Forces in the theater of Afghanistan, in one of his appearances in the Congress to explain and to defend the need of the intensification of the military operations in Afghanistan, has revealed his new find, after a «well-considered» reflexion. The general has conditioned directly the success of the fight against al-Qaeda to Bin Laden’s elimination. Is it certain this, operationally speaking?

Introduction. The Situation of the «Problem».

The Taliban and al-Qaeda form two vertically organized movements and from below to up, same in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That does that its cells do not know exactly which are the top chiefs. They only know where they have to go to receive support or to send or to receive information or to communicate with another «peer» cell. The ideological and geographical nearness allows them to collaborate tactically. The commands of these movements act by exception, not by presence or by deliberate action. This way, they give doctrinal orientations, establish essential lines of military and proselytizing action for the different territories and areas, they throw threats and warnings to the enemy governments and indicate punctual important (strategic) aims at the level of the set of the organization. This allows them to operate well, without the intervention of its high commands. The death of the mullah Omar or mullah Haqqani and two or three chiefs in an American bombardment, would concern little its efficiency, at its real military irregular levels of action. The «martyrdom» of the aforesaid or Bin Laden or his «managing director» al-Zawahiri would perform almost equal importance as their existence.

The operative key of the Taliban resides in their innumerable local chiefs, with their small guerrillas bands. They are the persons in charge of intimidating, teaching, scaring, attacking and occupying more or less temporarily some of the numerous settlements and hamlets, at both side of the frontier. According to the pressure degree that they should exercise on the villagers in order that they inform them, hide them and support them. Evidently its elementary degree of operative development keeps the movement at the defensive. Without being able to dispute to any of the present Armies in these areas, any territory or village. Without being able to realize other attack actions beyond ambushes, assaults to very small enemy isolated units, harassment by medium range fire, kidnapping, short duration isolated incursions and ways and paths mining. Ideologically concentrated in the conversion to their movement, to their semi nomadic cells, of the most related or nearby Pashtuns. In a minor and less extensive degree, operate the cells of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The First great Attempt of Capturing Bin Laden and his direct close Friends.

In the autumn of 2001 took place the rapid crumbling of the Taliban regime of Afghanistan, seated in a precarious and bad constructed state, which was giving cover and logistic support to the headquarters of al-Qaeda. This one, together with his «escort agents», a small group of active members and of training proselytes, gathered with time, forming an extensive and lax march deployment. And they slipped, following the narrow and steep routes that the zone was offering them, through the Afghan mountains up to Torah Bora. It began then, in December, 2001, the great operation of search and apprehension of the maximum leader of al-Qaeda. That was the direct and declared responsible person of the attempts of September 11 against the USA. Americans met for it near 100 groups specialized in «Long Range Independent Operations», in the zone in which it was supposed that Bin Laden was hiding. Why they did not catch or killed him? Possibly, if they were Israeli commands, they had achieved it.

In its day, according to the reports that are appearing to the public light, they said that it was for «lack of means». «We needed more soldiers there!, there declared recently the agent of the CIA Gary Bernstein. During his testimony, he assured that «we might have finished everything there». In 50 pages of a report published this year, are mentioned the testimonies of several military persons in charge. That saw how their High Commands were denying to them, for example, the thousand necessary men, according to them, to stop up the entrances and exits to Pakistan, or several bombardments.

Did they needed more than 100 elite commands for an operation of circle and annihilation of a band of irregular in fugue, terrified by the typical vague and nearby bombardments? Operation that would be limited to the zone where the enemy tracks and their electronic sensors, satellites, spies and intelligence agencies, were locating approximately the enemy. Surrounded the zone, by means of a double ring, not necessarily unbroken, but effective, the commands would penetrate centripetally in the suspicious area. Acting simultaneously, patiently, methodically and secretly, like a «swarm» of small units. Where the flank and the rear of every small unit would be defended by his initiative and offensive activity. And by the «influence» radiated by a nearby companion unit.

Also they imputed part of the responsibility in the escape to a “falcon” like Donald Rumsfeld. In those days, they say now, that Rumsfeld declared that if the USA was so hard in Afghanistan (for cleanly capturing the responsible person of that treacherous and civil tragedy?), it would wake up an anti-American feeling, bigger than that already existed. And because of it, he was supporter of a more «light» tactics, using controlled bombardments and with the collaboration with the Afghan Army.

The failure of an operation constituted a decisive strategic failure. In fact, for years there has not been trustworthy information of Osama’s whereabouts. As has just admitted the secretary of Defense Robert Gates, last December 7. And now, in 2009, al-Qaeda is renewed and spread. And Bin Laden, as the dead Che, inspires but does not command, a new generation of Islamic extremists, spread over numerous countries.

The Historical Precedents. The Geostrategic Present Stage.

Abdur Rahman, proclaimed Emir of Kabul in 1883, saw his sovereignty progressively reinforced on the totality of Afghanistan, immediately after the crushing by the British of the uprising, the same year, of Ayub Khan in Kandahar. In November, 1893, Abdur Rahman signed a “formal agreement” in Kabul with sir Mortimer Durand, secretary of Foreign Affairs of the British general governor in the India, Lord Lansdowne. That one fixed and established the political border between the India and Afghanistan. It was known since then as the line or the frontier tracing Durand.

The problem generated by this tracing was that the pashtunes, as definite and different race, remained divided geographically in 2 parts, placed in 2 territories of different sovereignties. The pashtunes lands of Chitral, Bajaur, Swat, Buner, Dhir, Khyber (with its gorge between Pesahwar and Kabul), Kuram and two Waziristans, stayed inside the British India. After the independence of the India, all these territories were incorporated to Pakistan. The Islamic state created at the time to satisfy and shelter the most part of the Indian Muslims. And that was including originally Bangladesh, at the far end of the Indian subcontinent, where the Bengali Muslims were living.

The pashtunes are nowadays 12-15 % of the Pakistani population. They are a poor minority, placed in zones with insufficient ground networks and of difficult development. But 25 % of the officers of the Pakistani army are pashtunes. As well as also about 40 % of officers of ISI (the Pakistani secret information service). The individuals of pashtún race are approximately 25 millions in the country.

In the northern part of Baluchistan live tribes of pashtún race. In the South and North Waziristan’s regions the Pashtuns are more concentrated, forming a real Pakistani Pashtunistan. Within the great pashtun race, the Mahsuds (these specially inclined to breaking the agreements and treaties) are in the Waziristan central zone, the Wasirs and the Afridis live in the zone of Tirah and the Mohmands, at the north of Tirah. The great zone of Chitral, at the north of the border, is formed by the Bajaur, Dhir and Swat districts. The Waziristans are the most problematic, independent and turbulent tribes.

In Afghanistan, the Pashtuns are at the south and south-east, reaching 35% of the population and around 12,5 millions persons. Another important Afghan races are the Uzbecs (10%) and the Tajiks (25%), which live in the north of the country, bordering the Tajikistan and Uzbekistan independent republics. In the center live the Hazaras (20 % of the population), related with the Persian and in the south are the Baluchis (10 %), related, in turn, with the Pakistani Baluchistan tribes. The flow of Afghans, specially Pashtuns, towards Pakistan or coming back home, when the military conditions are smoothed, does that the figures, lacking for decades of an official census, are variable and vague.

After the independence of Pakistan in 1947, the dispute arose with Afghanistan, which was looking for an exit to the sea, for the possession of the wide frontier tribal zones. Both countries almost came to the armed conflict, until they signed in 1963 an agreement of borders determination. The borders existing during the British domain were ratified in it. And Afghanistan stayed as an interior country, without access to the sea routes.

A pashtún independent and sovereign state does not exist. Their nation is divided between two Islamic states, not rivals and complementary. In none of them the pashtunes can impose their social and economic demands. Till now the Afghan Taliban revolt realizes her ambushes and assaults with limited aim mainly in the districts of pashtún majority. The tayicos and the hazaras form great part of the current security forces that get up slow, painfully and with reluctance in Afghanistan: approximately 90 thousand policemen and approximately 80 thousand native soldiers, with variable degrees of motivation, loyalty and training. In the pashtunes districts neither are enrollments to the national army nor to the Afghan police. Sometimes It looks like a pashtún war of liberation inside a country oppressive or neglected towards them.

These administrative colonialist policies were a frequent practice of all the imperial metropolis. To distribute the sovereignty of the territories, following geographical considerations. As a child would do it, drawing vaguely a map in his games. And leaving the different «regional races», separated and distributed between the forced resultant states. So creating permanent instability and, therefore, dependence and intervention need or foreign guardianship from the superpowers. There we have the cases of Moldavia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, North Ossetia, etc.

Barack Obama wants to reach 400 thousand operational and effective men in the Afghan security forces. To be able to leave them the defense of Afghanistan. Will he be able to motivate and to achieve that they enlist? Will they be loyal to a staggering and slightly representative democracy? Will they be effective in the hard fighting against the Taliban and al-Qaeda insurrections?

How is it Necessary to Attack in the Pashtunes mountainous tribal Zones?

We can say that, inside a partial area of these, the gravity center of the fight resides in the control of the passages and in the dominant heights of these. The military deployments must be long and narrow, as is required by orography. And in the marches, they must take advantage simultaneously of the whole net of paths, gorges and ways of a zone. This offers to them a certain previous deployment for the combat. It is not easy to rely on the support of air fire, for the requirements of maneuverability of the aircrafts. Punctual bombardments of saturation can be realized on an enemy reinforced position, which he has decided to defend. There must be avoided the heavy fires on the settlements, even suspicious, which do not answer to the unquestionable safety of the own expeditionary forces. The units to employ in the «interfaces of action» with the enemy in these hostile zones, are the small units of elite light infantry with high mountain training. No principal «mother» column, methodically advancing through these areas, can survive without deploying a combat advance guard, which should be occupying temporarily and successively the dominant points at the flanks of the advance path, and a rear guard that goes forward by successive observed bounds.

The advantage of the pashtunes over the regular forces, specially the foreigners, resides in the knowledge of their own area, on it they can move at great speed. They have a tactical elementary natural skill and a special trickery incorporated into their survival sense. They are capable of waiting patiently for a favorable opportunity for action, choosing generally when and where to do it. And they do not have shame in moving back when they can not realize their plans and can be threatened or cornered by the infidel modern enemy.

In addition, nowadays, the Taliban enjoy a complicated system of natural caves at several levels, in some frontier zones. That is reinforced by tunnels of communication, provided with zones extended for the waiting and the storage of goods of all classes. This system is used to facilitate the traffic between both countries, without having to use the frontier passages or the most habitual and known gorges, as «stages» of the complete journey. And as temporary refuge when the allies carry out operations at battalion or regiment levels, of search of rebels or of reprisal, on the pashtunes zones where they have been more active. The highland villages are numerous, small and spread for both zones in the Pakistani Afghan border. In them also a small group of Taliban can be camouflaged, waiting for the passing through of a military “flood”, as the mentioned ones.

The pashtunes have small military collective discipline and the enemy heavy fires air and ordnance affect their spirit and decision. Also, it affects them very much to see threatened or occupied their line of retreat and the light and medium enemy fires, when they receive them from heights superior to those that they occupy. The pashtunes can attack at night some aims that worth it, but they are not natural night fighters.

Prologue.

The global, polyvalent, integrator knowledge that needs the approximation to an armed religious politician revolt, is diverse and multiple. We recommend our readers, as complement, the reading of the different articles that, on the Taliban and al-Qaeda revolts we are publishing in the last months. With it, they will acquire a «prism» to observe, to discern and to predict the development of those «modern conflicts».