Military and National Intelligence, failures and results.

Introduction and Development.

The intelligence services of large countries are often correct in their opinions and forecasts.

The specific intelligence tasks to which a few modern agents are dedicated usually end with partial or total success.

Complex works with ramifications and developments, which hide an estimable but not certain future, fail miserably. Because of this complex and future peculiarity. And, because the ability to observe and measure a parameter of the human soul is something elusive, doubtful and uncomfortable. Next we will see several specific cases.

The reasons for the divergence of successes between singular cases and the projection into the future (foreseen solution) of complex issues, transcending time, are partly in the difficulty of their conception, in the risk that is run in venturing and in the non contrasted exposure to the commands. Obviously, there is a dialectic here between the concealment carried out and the cognitive and intuitive process of its imagination, development and projection (estimated solution).

Only analysts freed from Scholasticism and field manuals are capable of placing themselves in the free, impartial and lucid mental state or position. To capture anomalous, complex and difficult enemy situations. Since they are paid for results and speed, which are contradictory variables, the luxury of putting an analyst agent in a “quiet position” for an unpredictable, indefinite period of time is not usually acceptable.

The new techniques for detecting, observing and tracking targets should not be underestimated. Based on computers, electronic sensors, Artificial Intelligence. But, the presence of field agents should not be suppressed, but rather supported and increased. Cyber monitoring can specify for our spy the precise area of investigation and study.

BRIEFING OF A FIELD AGENT

The field agent is an infiltrator in a neutral or hostile environment. Able to approach and penetrate the government, business or social media of the rival. And capture relevant, important information in a consistent and sustained manner. The field agent gives a seal of verisimilitude or even reality to the information captured from the enemy.

It is not easy to recruit, train and insert your own field agent. Hence, in an era of haste, superficiality and intellectual complexity, technological means have been favored over field agents for espionage work.

Afghanistan 2021.

We all remember the moments of the change of government in Afghanistan in August 2021.

During almost 20 years of staying there, the United States had spent enormous sums of money on said stay, providing various support to the Afghan State and to choosing, training and equipping the Afghan National Army. The Americans even boasted in their public communications, especially from the Defense Department, that they were making progress in the anti-terrorist fight against the Taliban.

MARINES GUARDING KABUL AIRPORT

This turned out to be like the “Potemkin villages.” That the Russian minister of that name prepared in the path that Tsarina Catherine the Great would follow on a trip. So that her trashy inhabitants would appear happy and shiny as her Imperial Majesty passed by.

As soon as the last American troops had to withdraw, the Afghan soldiers, who also turned out to be shoddy, began to surrender their weapons and escape the feared wrath of the Taliban. US forces were only able to secure a defensive perimeter of the Kabul airport. But, the “friendly Afghans” and their families had to get there to board a flight. Fleeing the tidal wave of the barbarity of the Taliban (scholars of the Koran).

As it had been negotiated with the Taliban to accept control of the airport by Western soldiers for a few days, this was not enough for many «collaborators» of the Westerners (translators, drivers, cleaners, etc.) and their families. Many had to make a painful journey to Pakistan to gain their freedom and their lives.

Vietnam War. American stage,

In the United States, during the Vietnam War, the “Igloo White” program was established, endowed with 1.7 billion US dollars, between 1966 and 1971, for the tasks of collecting information on the North Vietnamese and Vietcong supply routes in South Vietnam. The route started from North Vietnam, entering Laos, near the common border, and was the line of all kinds of supplies for the aforementioned forces, operating in South Vietnam. The route was strewn with devices that simulated a plant and were transmitters of information for US intelligence. They measured 1.2 ms. and their battery lasted 50 days. Many times an unmanned flying object, a drone, was used, which collected information from the ground and transmitted it via television to a distant plane.

A SECTION OF THE HO CHI MINH ROUTE

With the data collected from traffic on the roads, the Americans decided on interdiction bombing actions, carried out by their different aerial devices, including the invisible, inaudible and precise B-52 strategic bombers. In early 1971, data from aerial photos after the bombings, taken from planes flying after the attack formations, allowed analysts to assume that the “truck war” was causing a very severe strain on the industrial capacity of North Vietnamese suppliers (China and the USSR).

Historia Desterrada: La ruta Ho Chi Minh: Eje logístico clave en la Guerra  de Vietnam

But, if it was true that so many trucks and equipment were destroyed, how was it possible that the communists maintained the initiative in South Vietnam? On the other hand, where were the tens of thousands of remains of trucks and other materials that literally plagued many of the roads and logistics parks on the Ho Chi Minh Route? Who bothered to remove them?

A more primitive stretch of the Ho Chi Minh Route

Another embarrassing issue was that the total number of vehicles counted by the US aviation as destroyed, exceeded several times the total number of cargo transport vehicles that North Vietnam had, according to Intelligency.

The answer to this essential mystery was soon given by the young American officers (juniors): they were eaten by a monster called the “Great Laotian Truck Eater”; a horrendous scavenger that rose towards dawn and devoured the vehicles destroyed by aviation during the night, after the required photographs for the “wreck count”, the count of debris achieved. Because Americans are very scrupulous with statistics and consider lying a «social sin» that is almost unforgivable for officials.

(TO BE CONTINUED)

The modern Hybrid Warfare. 3rd. Part.

(THE END)

The Multifunctional, Total or Multisubject Wars.

In general, the attacks are realized to the software of a system, looking for a «weakness» of this one. And using the malicious codes, the back entrances, etc. A penetration or attack to the software is prevented in general with an antivirus adapted to the received virus. To attack the hardware is necessary to act on the «physical component» of the computer. And his detection, with the nowadays existing miniaturization, turns out to be very improbable and long in the time, until the devastation is detected. The best way of acceding to the hardware is realizing the intrusion in the factories of components and of assemblies. But these are protected by control measures of components and external equipment, based on the nationality and the producer of them.

The cyberattacks go to cybernetic networks of the society, both public and private, to the communications and means of control of equipment and networks. Becoming concrete definite in the facilities of different out-standing or strategic sectors of a country or alliance; like, industrial centers, military communications, administrative public negotiations, social opened networks, energy distributors, intranets of banks and economic means. And they seek to paralyze or to disturb the functioning of them or to distribute in them more or less opened tendentious information, to alter or to direct the public or particular general opinion in favor of the interests not always evident of the attackers.

Resultado de imagen de ataques ciberneticos mas famosos

The cyberattact is a «total attack» of swarm type; that is, of multiple and simultaneous or sequential character. It is directed on the economic, administrative, civil and military structures, which hold and allow that a «social group» should work. It is a «form of fight» in the cybernetic area. Where «one» seeks «to occupy» tactical or strategic «advantageous positions«. And «to damage» the enemy, preventing him from keep his pace, his «habitual tempo» of functioning and stealing and depriving him sometimes of the costly goods of research and development created by him. And that were allowing him to keep a competitive advantage in national «intervention means» in the industrial, economic and military fields. A branch of the cyberattack is the industrial espionage.

With them is achieved to seriously concern and debilitate the diplomatic, economic, military and civil sectors of a society. In the civilian is the original humus, the social essence, as creator of the «national morale» and the «will of defense» of the social group. Being those sectors the «means of intervention» with which a State counts for his global, holistic defense, against the aggression and external and internal dangers.

It is known the supposedly American attack using an advanced virus against the software of the Iranian centrifugal machines. That were operating to separate the isotopes of the Uranium 235 and Uranium 239 (not fissionable), using his different “molecular mass”. Seeking to obtain U235 enough pure to create «self fissionable critical masses«, the explosive of the atomic bombs, for his supposed nuclear devices. As the % of purity between an industrial use, to generate electricity, for example, and the great purity that needs a «critical mass», both «activities of successive enrichment» are perfectly recognizable by the foreign intelligence. In May, 2010 it was detected by the Iranians a malicious virus, called Stuxnet, in the of Nataz’s nuclear station. And that gave to a thousand of them the «order» of self-destructing. But, already in January of this year, the inspectors of the Atomic International Energy Agency (the AIEA) and the Iranian technical personnel had detected that many centrifugal machines were working slowly or badly and without a certain motive.

Resultado de imagen de ataques ciberneticos mas famosos

China takes a privileged singular position as a «great universal factory» in the global economy. And the same sells cheap products of immediate consumption on a large scale, that compete principally in price, which makes already products of high added value with the most modern technologies. This allowed him to lead one of the most significant and consistent cases of cyberattacks on a large scale against a country or coalition. The history was published by Bloomberg.

The agents of a unit of espionage and cybernetic war of the Chinese Popular Army managed to place some malicious «components» in the motherboards of IT equipment of the Supermike company, of San Jose, California. Who buys to Chinese factories, which have, in turn, subcontracts and suppliers of components in China. This way, the IT equipment with this «Trojan horse» allowed the cybernetic Chinese spies to accede for 3 years to industrial and governmental secrets of the EE. UU.

The anomalies emerged in 2015, when Elementary Technologies, who was designing software to compress files, reported of them in the baseplates of his cybernetic servants. Around 30 technological companies existed, between them Amazon and Apple, and diverse agencies of American intelligence, «invaded» in the Chinese attack. It was verified that the cybernetic servants of Elementary were mounted by Supermike, which is the major world producer of cybernetic servants.

It was found that some plates of the cybernetic servants had installed a «perfected component» that did not appear in his design and that it was not a chip. This multifunctional «foreign corps» would have been placed in 4 factories of China that mount the cybernetic servants of Supermike.

Resultado de imagen de ataque chino al hardware THE SUPPOSED CHINESE COMPONENT INTRODUCED IN THE HARDWARE.

The physical interventions in the hardware are more difficult, because all customers theoretically verify the equipment that they make or buy. Attack to the other people’s hardware foreign are doing usually during his traffic from the manufacturer to the client. That is the method that the American agencies use. But this malicious and comfortable manipulation of the Chinese spies can be effected because China is the great manufacturer (with license or without her) of hardware (computers, mobiles). And the directors and controls of his factories collaborate of well or badly degree with the «requests of the authorities», in a wide sense.

And, finally, some days ago was important the recidivist case, still not close, of the Chinese giant of the telecommunications Hua Wei. This way, the agencies of intelligence of the U.S.A- has warned that must not be used the products and services of Huawei and ZTE. Accusing that the terminals of these brands might be working as «cybernetic concealed agents«, spying for the Chinese government. Also, the Pentagon has prohibited to his personnel to introduce in the military bases the products of these brands.

China, as a great power example, of realizing his own and adapted «combinations» of means of intervention in his different stages.

Imagen relacionada CHINA’S ASPIRATIONS…

One first Chinese national foreign objective is to promote the multipolarity in the world structure of the great powers and his allies. Looking that does not exist a world hegemonic power, like the USA, that hinders him in the extension of his influence and power from his «nodal center«.

For it, he will create alliances and will establish agreements with others countries in detriment or in substitution of that hegemonic power. And he will be a «obstructionist intransigent actor» in all the actions that that power promotes unilaterally in the international forums (UNO, Atomic International Energy Agency). This way, the actions of the western nations in the Syrian conflict were frustrated and limited by the systematic veto of China to his approval in the Security Council. Though the Chinese communists consider to be out of the fight for the direct influence in the Moslem Middle East. And, the Chinese decision to renew his relations with the Sub-Saharan Africa, it was partly a strategic corollary of the «war to the terror» of the USA and the NATO in Middle East, as supplier region of crude oil and gas to the whole world.

Resultado de imagen de china poder político militar A CHINESE NAVAL GROUP OF STRATEGIC PROJECTION SAILS IN THE CHINA’S SOUTH SEA, AFTER CROSS  THE TAIWAN’S STRAIT.

China is for Russia and Russia is for China a partner, competitor and rival, if it is worth this polyvalent definition, which does that none of the expressions is in fullness. Both are «emergent powers«, according to the new nomenclature, determined in growing, in not get damage directly for the moment and in eroding the hegemonic power and his Europeans allied.

This way, the Chinese would not act directly, not by third interposed countries, in Syria, in the boiling cauldron of the Asia of the Southwest, scene of the global contest that sunnis and Shiites develop for the control and the supremacy in the Islam. But they will do it collaborating up to a point with the interests and the diplomatic propositions of the Russians. Reinforcing this way a political common position of counterweight and neutralization of the influence of West in the zone. And in exchange for a certain Russian reciprocity in favor of the Chinese interests, in other countries in which do not shock the national influences of both. Resultado de imagen de china Paracelso y Spratly. A CHINESE NAVAL BASE OF MISILES IN A SMALL ISLAND OF THE PARACELSO’S ARCHIPELAGO .

A strategic exterior Chinese preference goes towards the Indian subcontinent and to the nations of the first Asian circle of terrestrial and maritime nearness. The India is a radical rival at his measure, with whom it beared several frontier wars in the middle of the 20th century. The India has a political structure more advanced than China, the liberal participant democracy, still in spite of all his contradictions, ethnic, religious and social discrimination and lacks of all kinds. And it possesses a demographic strength that overcomes China’s people grow. Though lately the Chinese begin to realize the irrational of his «pseudo scientists» methods of the control of the birthrate. That the communist China applied in altars of a material rational progress. Progress which only enjoys in diverse degrees at the present, the members of the communist party and his families, the technical personnel who design, stimulate and develop it, the chiefs and officials of the armed forces and a minority of entrepreneurs and men of business. That have prospered at the shade of an institutional inveterate clientele of the mentioned public elites.

At the west of China, close with his Sinkiang’s immense region (Xinjiang), in the Oriental Turkestan, there is a rosary of former soviet socialist republics of 2 thousands Km long, that get until the Caspian Sea. They are, from east to west, Kazajistan, Kirguistan, Tadzikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. And there form these countries a monolithic set of several etnias, gathered in the names of them, but extended over several simultaneously, of Turkoman origin, of the central steppes of Asia. And agglutinated also by his belonging to the Islam sunní. All this form a multinational defensive and refractory shield to the expansive activity and to the significant presence of the Chinese in his internal matters or in his exterior trade, always with effects of political guardianship. These Turkoman Muslims are rather potentials allied of the Great Russia, with only she puts a bit of care and dedication to attract and to attend them.

Imagen relacionadaCHINA PROJECTS IN  AFRICA HER ECONOMY AND INFLUENCE. DISPLAYING HERSELF AS A COUNTRY THAT NEVER WAS COLONISLIST.

Another great strategic preference of Beijing is to extend his influence and increase the economic and diplomatic bows with the development nations, specially those who have «natural resources and primary cultures«, that are necessary for the manufacturing production, the supply and the general development of the nations. She has taken it even far beyond his geographical borders of political influence or strategical military.

With the interminable income of his exports and with the knowledge of the development in many areas, China does intelligent and massive strategic national «landings» in diverse countries of Africa and Spanish America. With them it establishes «binding alliances» of backing, advising and support. Trying to anchor firmly and creating allies or «friends» by all this world in development. 

Going firmly by the political, economic, diplomatic and military way of turning to what China really seeks to be:

one (or the) hegemonic power in the 21st century.

 The litigious, even violent, and, at least, very menacing, that China keeps with the countries of the East Asian, demonstrate how awkward, despotic and subjecting can be his presence in the short distances. When China thinks that com into play his national interests or his national pride. Whose loss in hands of the «foreign powers» until almost middle of last century, is one of the neurotic tics of the exterior politics of Beijing, from October 1, 1949.

In the Sea of the South of China, this power is expansive and hegemonic. And keeps litigious more or less important with the rest of the Asian countries bathed by this sea. That are The Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

This sea has 3500 thousands Km2. And China thinks that it is his «Second Persian Gulf«, for the sub aquatic oil and natural gas deposits, existing and estimated. For comparison and perspective, the Mediterranean Sea only has 2500 thousands Km2 and his coasts bathe to 24 countries in three continents. None of which is hegemonic or expansive.

In order to settle itself in the «disputed archipelagos«, China follows a strategy of small and consolidated advances. Installing in them, in islands and rocky islands, military air or naval bases and extending the logistic capacities of some of them, substracting area to the sea. This has forced to some coastal countries to realize occupations in the islands of his regional seas. Destined, rather, to indicate his presence and sovereignty.

Two of the most showy cases are the archipelagos of Spratly and Paracelso.

The Spratly has hundreds of islands and rocky islands spread by more than 400 thousand Km2, near the Philippines. In relation to this archipelago, the Court of Arbitration of The Hague already pronounced that does not exist a legal base for the Chinese claims. And that the Spratly are not islands with economic projection. But, China, simply, does not recognize it.

The Paracelso’s archipelago, at 700 Km south of Hong Kong, is placed at the west of the southern Sea of China, in the entry of Tonkin’s gulf (Vietnam). There, China has crude oil platforms in dispute with the Vietnamese government. Near the Chinese facilities have been diverse incidents between the Vietnamese fishing boats and patrols and the Chinese ships of escort. That have dispersed them using water cannons.

News on Modern Conflicts. Novedades en Conflictos Modernos.

Utilizamos esta Sección de Novedades para dar a conocer en avance los próximos artículos que irán apareciendo en las distintas «categorías» de temas de esta página, dedicada a los conflictos y crisis modernos.

Terrorismo, Guerrillas y Violencia

El Terrorismo es una compleja operación Política y Violenta de amplia Variedad de acciones. Sus acciones violentas deben ser deliberadas, Continuas o Sistemáticas y buscando Influenciar a una amplia audiencia (mucho mayor que los afectados Directamente por dichas acciones violentas) y generando miedo, hasta miedo insuperable, en dicha “población blanco u objetivo”. Para que realicen y tomen las actitudes y acciones que los terroristas buscan.

Así, una acción aislada o sin interés político no es terrorismo. Será vandalismo,odio vesánico, brote psicótico… pero no es, ni será técnica o jurídicamente terrorismo.

Terrorism, Guerrillas and Violence

Terrorism is a complex Political and Violent operation with a wide Variety of actions. Their violent actions must be deliberate, Continuous or Systematic and seeking to Influence a wide audience (much larger than those directly affected by the violent actions) and generating fear, even insurmountable fear, in the “target or target population.” So that they carry out and take the attitudes and actions that the terrorists seek.

Thus, an isolated action or one without political interest is not terrorism. It will be vandalism, mad hatred, a psychotic break… but it is not, nor will it be, technically or legally, terrorism.

Inteligencia militar y nacional, fallos y resultados.

Los servicios de inteligencia de los grandes países suelen acertar muchas veces en sus opiniones y pronósticos.

Los trabajos concretos de inteligencia a los que se dedican unos pocos agentes modernos, suelen terminar con un éxito parcial o total.

Los trabajos complejos con ramificaciones y desarrollos, que esconden un futuro estimable, pero, no seguro, fallan estrepitosamente. Por esta particularidad compleja y futurible. Y, porque la capacidad de observar y medir un parámetro del alma humana es algo inaprensible, dudoso e incómodo. Seguidamente veremos varios casos concretos.

Las razones para que se produzca la divergencia de aciertos entre los casos singulares y la proyección al futuro (solución prevista) de los asuntos complejos, trascendentes al tiempo, están en parte en la dificultad de su concepción, el riesgo que se corre en aventurar y en la exposición no contrastada a los mandos. Evidentemente, existe aquí una dialéctica entre el ocultamiento realizado y el proceso cognitivo e intuitivo de su imaginación, desarrollo y proyección (solución estimada).

Military and National Intelligence, failures and results.

The intelligence services of large countries are often correct in their opinions and forecasts.

The specific intelligence tasks to which a few modern agents are dedicated usually end with partial or total success.

Complex works with ramifications and developments, which hide an estimable but not certain future, fail miserably. Because of this complex and future peculiarity. And, because the ability to observe and measure a parameter of the human soul is something elusive, doubtful and uncomfortable. Next we will see several specific cases.

The reasons for the divergence of successes between singular cases and the projection into the future (foreseen solution) of complex issues, transcending time, are partly in the difficulty of their conception, in the risk that is run in venturing and in the non contrasted exposure to the commands. Obviously, there is a dialectic here between the concealment carried out and the cognitive and intuitive process of its imagination, development and projection (estimated solution).

HAMAS ATACA A ISRAEL EN 2023.

Los distintos atacantes llevaron a cabo un “ataque de enjambre” sobre posiciones en el centro y sur de Israel. Varios, de los principios o normas de las fuerzas militares en un ataque convencional fueron desatendidos. Por ejemplo, la unidad del objetivo y la unidad del mando de las fuerzas y el mantenimiento de una estructura, de un despliegue para todas las fuerzas atacantes. Aquí, cada pequeña “unidad de acción” islamista tenía su propio jefe y su particular objetivo. Y, es el conjunto de acciones del “enjambre atacante” el que define la estrategia y el complejo objetivo real de Hamas.

LA GUERRA DE MANIOBRAS. EL CONCEPTO DE LA BATALLA AÉREO TERRESTRE MODERNA. UNA INTERPRETACIÓN DEL MARISCAL ERICH VON MANSTEIN.
 Un ejemplo poco conocido de la trascendencia omnipresente de la logística y de su línea de comunicación (más o menos ramificada) en las operaciones y muy importante por sus resultados finales, es la operación denominada DONBASS (la gran zona operativa) por los soviéticos, desarrollada entre el 29 de enero y mediados de marzo de 1943, al sudoeste del río Donetz. Ella forma parte de lo que los alemanes llamaron la batalla del DONETZ: el último éxito estratégico de Von Manstein, que fue malogrado por Hitler en Kursk.
 
 
THE MANEUVER WARFARE. THE CONCEPT OF THE MODERN AIRLAND BATTLE. AN INTERPRETATION BY FIELDMARSCHAL ERICH VON MANSTEIN.
A little known example illustrates the omnipresent transcendence of logistics and the line of communication (more or less branched out) in operations and their final results. Between January 29 and mid-March 1943, the Soviets developed an operation called Donbass at the southwest of the Donetz. This operation forms part of what the Germans called the battle of the Donetz. And was Marschal von Manstein’s last strategic success. Which wasted by Hitler in Kursk.

 

Valery Gerasimov, comandante militar ruso en Ucrania.

Con todas las derrotas acumuladas padecidas por el Ejército de la Federación rusa en su “operación militar especial” en Ucrania desde el 24 de febrero de 2022 hasta ahora, Vladimiro Putin no descansa, se irrita y no tiene paz.

Su último “as en la manga” es el general de ejército Valery Gerasimov, nacido en la ciudad rusa de Kazan, hace 67 años y jefe del Estado Mayor General desde 2012.

Una edad casi ideal para el trabajo que se le viene encima. Definido por organización, cambios estructurales, disciplina, flujo suficiente de medios y mano dura.

Valery Gerasimov, Russian military commander in Ukraine.

With all the accumulated defeats suffered by the Army of the Russian Federation in its «special military operation» in Ukraine from February 24, 2022 until now, Vladimir Putin does not rest, he is irritated and has no peace.

LA PSICOLOGÍA DE LOS TERRORISTAS ISLAMISTAS

La civilización y sus estructuras vital y social en sus interacciones con los individuos y su psicología.

El fallo de los yihadistas en integrarse en un «grupo con creencias y virtudes (los valores permanentes) compartidos». Que le den identidad, sentido y pertenencia a sus vidas.

¿Por qué se comportan así? ¿Cómo tratar a los recuperables? ¿Cómo combatir a los vitandos o recalcitrantes?

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE ISLAMIST TERRORISTS

The civilization and his vital and social structures , in his interactions with the individuals and their psychology.

The failure of the jihadists in joining a «group with shared beliefs and virtues» (the permanent values). That give to their lives identity, sense and belonging.

Why do they behave this way? How to treat the recoverable ones? How to attack the hatefuls or recalcitrant terroris

THE PERSECUTIONS TO THE MODERN CHRISTIANS.

There is taking place in the last months a real «planetary conjunction». It is about the «temporal coincidence» of a bloody and fierce pursuit of the Christians, whose «green outbreaks» are in the Arabic Islamic countries. That is coincidental with the solvent, quiet and cunning action of the European «trendies», against the virtues of the European societies. Both actions are surely a «cosmic part» of the so called «Mysterium iniquitatis» or agree to the Darkness.

THE CHINDITS: FORCES OF DEEP INCURSION.

AN OPERATIONAL EXPLOITATION OF THE ENEMY REAR

A process that we will call of «cascade surprise» was created at the south of the operations theater of the Far East by the British general Orde Wingate at the beginning of 1.944. For it he used the deep incursion force, type light reinforced division, called the Chindits. This name is taken from the Burman god Chinthe, the protective god of the religion (or of the State), that could attack the enemies from nine different directions… His principal mission was to cut the internal communications of units (advance and retreat) and supplies (supports, substitutions and replacements) of the Japanese forces, that were opposed to the advance, at the north of Burma, of the Americans Chinese forces of general Stilwell. These were advancing from China towards the south, with the aim to conquer the Burman populations of Mogaung and Myitkyina and also to occupy and assure the zone at the south of these railway knots, so creating for them an area of stable rear. With it, they were seeking to be able to permanently open and extend a road and a pipeline from the north of Assam, in India, to Yunan, in China.

THEIR PATCH, FROM CINTHE GOD.

This would allow to supply a fleet of American bombardiers and their fighters escorts with base in Yunan. That would be destined to reinforce the effort of war of the wrecked Chinese, who were fighting from 1.937 their own war, against the Japanese expansionism in the continental Asia. And that were now unmotivated up to a point, that Chiang Kai Check wanted to go out of the war. This hypothetical armistice would liberate around 25 Japanese divisions, that were situated in China, operating and placed, to be destined where the Imperial High Staff considers to be suitable. For example, to accelerate the invasion of India, to include it in the «Co prosperity’s Asian Zone» that the Empire of the Japan was praising for the “Oriental and the Pacific Asia”. Under his politician and economic influence, opposite to the Western alien Powers.

OPERATIONS ZONE.

A conventional advance from India, by the Fourteen British Indian Army of the general Slim against this deep Japanese rear and from an expected and protected flank, was impracticable. Due to the distance to cross; to the area to winning and assuring; to the tenacity of the Japanese infantry soldiers; to the number of the Japanese deployed forces «in the same way and opposed direction”, as the Nippon were trying to reach the already nearby border of India with Burma, and to the difficulty of the the jungle fighting. That was a «thick» enviroment for the movements of the ground forces of both rivals, with obstructed and very nearby sights and where were abounding the tropical diseases.

 

The Development of the Operations.

The «second Chindit expedition» was inserted in March of 1.944, on the basis of the operational experience acquired the previous year with the first one. Where Wingate verified two essential parameters for the foreseen operations: that British Indian «line forces”, specifically trained for these tasks of deep incursion, could fight the Japanese in the jungle; and that these forces could indefinitely be supplied by air, as the Allies had the air supremacy in his operations zone and possessed enough air transport capacity for the task. They took part as incursion forces, the brigades 16, that from the first of February advanced afoot around 1.000 km towards Indaw, 77 and 111 of the British Indian Army, strong in more than 12 thousand men. That were joining in the 3th British Indian Division, of his «battle order». In April of 1.944 the 14 brigade joined it, landing in Aberdeen’s base, close to the way obstruction of White City, and immediately attacked several Japanese supplies depots. Wingate always thought in the employment of regular units, not about elite troops. And that their replacements were coming from the different units of the Army, specially the Fourteen Army of Slim. But did not count with the «perverse» trend of the units commands, of preferably being doing without the idlers and the problematic men, handing them over to other units. This way, the Chindits’ recruitment units had to reject at part of the candidates, as well as also those that were overcoming 40 years. Which is really an age very advanced to begin in the difficulties of the war in the jungles.

MARCHING ON: CROSSING A STREAM…

The gliders, freight planes and light aircrafts, due escorted, began to come to Broadway, in the north, and to Picadilly, in the south, of the chosen landing zone. It was a question of establishing a “fortified bolt” over the railroad and the road between Indaw, at the south, and Mohyen, towards the north, in the rear of the Japanese forces that were advancing towards the north, to China, and eastward, to India. The location of the place of the promising operational obstruction was discovered in the air reconnaissance done by Wingate, which chose her opposite to another alternative, because in the small valleys included in his perimeter, could be established, cover from the sights, all the auxiliary services of the defensive zone, as the mules, the health, the exterior communications, the stores, etc. White City, the defensive position, was due fortified by the engineers and equipped with 40 mm. anti-aircraft Bofors cannons, 75 mm. mortars and 25 pounds cannons (> 11 Kg and > 90 mm.) and Vickers 7, 7 mm. heavy machine guns. Between the hills that were framing the enclosure and that were integrating it, was installed even a runway for small airplanes.

A PACK OF MULES…

For the transport in broken and jungle ground, the Chindits were using packs of mules in all his marching columns. Each animal was in charge of a given muleteer, entrusted of his guide, care and subsistence. And not always, specially at the end of their operations, the muleteers were due trained for his trade. The packs were transporting the ammunitions, the provisioning, the heavy weapons, the supplies, the radio devices and other equipments and consumables. The train of mules of every unit was very vulnerable to a Japanese assault. Also, the animals of the redoubts, where it was difficult to bury them or to due protect them under covers, were vulnerable to the Japanese heavy fire. With it, the mules trains was turning into a serious vulnerability of the units. Since without it the operations of march and attack, consubstantial with the Chindits ethos, were impossible in this fighting ground of so difficult transitability. Bad going is not as precise definition and concept.

In the operations zone, the climate was hard, the comfort, which relieves the efforts of the war, was scanty, the life was rough and the woodland diseases seriously and repeatedly affected the men and the beasts, in high percentage and intensity, during the few months of operations in the Burma jungles. And the general task of harassment and weakening of the Japanese forces in their communication and supplies lines of towards Chinese and Indian fronts was carried out. The strategic operational concept that sublied was the exploitation of the Japanese deep rear, where were abounding his tactical and operational vulnerabilities and the absence of combat availability or readiness, on having been removed his forces from the combats fronts. The Chindits managed to fix indefinitely in this rear around two and half Japanese divisions, dedicated to their control and pursuit, or, around 2,5 times their own combat capacity.

Analysis and Interpretation of the Chindit Second Campaign.

The Chindits operations are exploitation actions in the enemy rear by enough and mobile forces. These are inserted deeply in it by their own aviation. This is not the usual case of the attack and breakthrough of a sector or strip of the enemy front. And then the irruption of “mobile corp”. That advances within the enemy rear to exploit his vulnerabilities; to destroy his units in reform or in march to their initial bases; to turn up the fighting fronts of his units at the defensive, so collaborating in annihilating them; to capture or destroy all kinds of logistic enemy means; to attack his valuable and vulnerable units (artillery, engineers, command and control, communications); to temporarily occupy ground communications hubs, defiles, mountain ports and riverheads and lakeheads, etc.

The necessary coordination of the “mobile corp” with his «support mass” or “immediate supporting rear”, is realized in this campaign by a stable, sufficient and not bothered airway. Whose link of union with the Chindits operational brigades (-) and battalions (+) are the fortified blocking bases (White City, Broadway, Aberdeen, Blackpool) established within the Japanese zone. And that were acting as “initial bases of depart” of their attack operations.

It was calculated that the Chindits caused more than 12 thousand losses to the Japanese forces, with their loss in combat of only a few hundreds of men. But the Chindits neither defeated decisively any Japanese great unit, nor conquered any relevant enemy position. So his transcendence, for the Allied military plans and the importance of the actions against the enemy, remained dispersed, appeased and darkened by the great maneuvers of the war in this South Asian theater and for the strategic and operational interests of the three great actors in it: British and Indians, American and Chinese.

GENERAL ORDE WINGATE.

After Wingate’s unexpected death in a plane crash, his successor, general Lentaigne, established in Blackpool, at around 100 km at north of White City, another fortified obstructionist position, as alternative and reinforcement of this. And since the Chindits operations and the interest of the war was moving more towards the border with China, the Chindits stayed already under the command of the Americans. And Stilwell, gave to them the task of a “great light conventional unit”, coordinated with the effort towards Birmania of the American Chinese forces. With the missions to attack in force from the south the positions over which those were advancing. It is of indicating that the same Lentaigne, which did not have the creativity, the ancestry, the respect between his equals and the will of Wingate, managed to partly accepted Stilwell’s conventional and orthodox points of view, in relation to the operational employment of the Chindits.

At the beginning of 1.944 Stiwell had one unit of «deep raiders”, the so called «Merrill’s Marauders». But they did not have the scope, the projection, the capacity and the operational conception that the Chindits had from the beginning, in his second incursion of this year. In addition, without the substitutions and replacements needed, used as another American Chinese advance spear in the Burma campaign and plagued by the infectious diseases, the combative efficiency of the Chindits plummeted very soon. And, a few months later, in 1.945, they were already totally demobilized.

THE ARMED DEFENSE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE OR DAESH.

Introduction.

The Islamic State has the strategic advantage of his territorial unity, which allows him to support the fights following his interior communication lines. His enemies are dispersed by his borders and operate in multitude of combats sectors or strips. This advantage can be used to fix and keep his enemies, dispersed and operationally unconnected for the different countries and zones. This way, IS preventing them any concentration to attack him.

So, in his Mosul’s operational center, with approximately 2 million habitants, the major city under his power, and the third of Iraq, he keeps the Erbil’s peshmergas fixed, the capital of the Iraqi autonomous Khurdistan. These are not capable of throwing an individual offensive, to go snatching cities and zones from the ISIL and are kept at the defensive. They are Sunnis Kurds, that do not want to coordinate with the army of Iraq and the sectarian Shiites militias.

 ABU BAKER AL-BAGDADI.

In Anbar, the ISIL occupied al-Ramadi, its capital, where the Iraqi army went out, here also, at the disbandment, in an unforeseen and accelerated retrograde march. Los iraquíes culparon de sus desventuras operativas a una gran tormenta de arena, que facilitó la “marcha al combate” de los muyahidines del DAESH. And he threatens the western flank of Baghdad, which says to be training and concentrating forces to recover her, departing from the new base in Taqaddum, at 25 km from al-Ramadi, where are a reinforce of 450 new American soldiers of the four stars American general James Terry. Which acts as a bolt, a ground perpendicular obstruction, against the projection of the ISIL over Baghdad.

The Islamic State has now three great operational areas.

The first great zone includes all the south of the Caliphate, from Aleppo’s south-east up to al-Ramadi, following the course of the high Euphrates. In her, the ISIL is spreading and being consolidated, occupying Palmyra city, finishing the expelling of the National Syrian Army from Dar-ez-Zour’s province (his last troops in her are surrounded at the west of the capital) and the Iraqi soldiers and the Shiites militias from Anbar’s province. At the west of Palmyra are Tiyas and the military airports of the Shayrat, occupied by the NSA, which are vulnerable targets for the ISIL, capable of attacking them from two marching directions. With it, a western defensive flank, directed to Damascus, might be established.

In the north of Iraq, the ISIL keeps his positions in Nínive’s province and part of Saladin’s province, so being consolidated also in the high Tigris.

In Syria, at Aleppo’s north and north-east, along around 400 Kms. of the border with Turkey, up to Hasaka’s frontier province, the ISIL keeps a strategic base, using small offensives and tactical retreats, in a zone of great operational instability. Trying to debilitate the Front al-Nusrah (near the frontier Azaz), the Syrian peshmergas (in Kobani) and other opponents groups and to keep open the narrow frontier sectors, Ras al-Ayn, between others, where he realizes his exchanges of crude oil and derivatives, seized goods, armaments and new supporters. Also he wants to stop the offensive of the opposition in Aleppo, since the ISIL does not have now free means to exploit any destabilization in Aleppo, that would be produced this way. But in Hasaka he wants to be consolidated, to increase his geographical continuity, to protect his frontier passages with Iraq and Turkey, here is Tel Abyad, and to increase his strategic rear, reinforcing this way the Palmyra’s projection over Damascus.

 AN EXECUTION IN PALMIRA.

Turkey, which wants to keep in his south border a difficult military politic balance of power, suspects so much of the (Syrian) Kurds of the YPG and of the ISIL, both approaching in force to his territory. And Erdogan is considering to establish a safety zone of 10 Km. in depth in Syrian territory from the common border, occupying her with around 12 thousand Turkish soldiers. From her, the Turks might also partially control other more 25 or 30 Km. in depth, using his heavy artillery. It is a thorny and controversial topic, of international indefinite transcendence, so the command of the Turkish AA.FF. has asked Erdogan for a formal wrote order, that the President still has not granted.

The air bombardments of the Coalition of the 60 nations, assigned to the Operation «Inherent Resolve», erode and cause casualties to the Islamic State during almost one year. But they do not stop his military principal operations of fixation of his enemies and of increasing the territory of the Islamic State. At less that the western countries, including the USA, the NATO and the European Union, in any degree and practical necessary national combination, are ready and resolve to put on the Syrian and/or Iraqi territories a “sufficient investment of their own soldiers”, in the form of combined ground forces, distributed in the combinations adapted for the tasks that they will assume, the ISIL will not be beaten by his enemies of these Arabic infected countries. And it seems that the ISIL will possible be indefinitely defend from his frontier enemies. In the air raids in Syria take part Arabia, the USA, Bahrain, Canada, the Arab United Emirates and Jordan. In Iraq, asking for the authorities permission attack Australia, Belgium, Denmark, the USA and Great Britain.

The Geographical Scene of the Islamic State (ISIL).

This organization acts in a diffuse, not occupied, but controlled strip, of 300 thousand Km2., that spreads over Iraq and Syria, from Baghdad up to Aleppo and the mountains of the center west of Syria. The width changes along the route. The pillaged territory begins in Faluya, at 60 km to the west of Baghdad, and includes the nearby cities of Habbaniya and al-Ramadi and and Anbar’s extensive and desert province. And, following the Euphrates towards the northwest, it reaches the riverside cities of Haditha and Âna, before penetrating in Syria by Abu Kemal, leaving behind Níniveh and part of Saladin provinces. In the middle of the south and eastern desert of Syria, only relieved by the river, is Dayr al-Zawr. And continuing by the river, we come first to Raqqa, close to the river mouth of the river Belikh in the Euphrates. And then to the artificial lake al-Assad in the great meander of the Euphrates, to continue up to Aleppo and the Kurdish mountains of the center west, in the border with Turkey. Up to 10 million persons might be controlled by the ISIL in this territory.

EXECUTIONS OF ENEMIES OF THE DAESH

It is not easy to move by these lands, which are infertile, beyond the irrigations of the Euphrates and of the artificial lake of al-Assad, without leaving a «tactical fingerprint» of the march. The lands of this great strip lack concealments and natural covers, in the shape of forests, extensive bushes and mountains. This does that the most frequent refuges and stays for the yihadists groups are the villages and populations along his backbone: the Euphrates, his aluentes, as the Jaipur in Hanaka’s province, and his banks. For his defense and more lasting cover they have to disperse by them, forming one or several «muyahidins squads» of not more than 40 men each one.

Operational decisive possibilities.

In any case, the fight in the occupied territories by the Islamic State is an urban fight. It is not an area for a movements warfare. It was so in June, 2014, when the Islamic State spread out, uncontrollably and overwhelming, by the north and north-east of Iraq. And the 30 thousand Iraqi soldiers of the Niniveh and Saladin provinces, went out, afflicted and in stampede, towards Baghdad. Looking for protection and refuge between the walls of the gigantic city and his al-Sadr shii neighborhood, at the east of the Tigris (known as al-Sadr city). And it before the simple «march to the combat» of several hundreds muyahidins. Mounted in Toyotas pick-ups, half “roof opened”, without any armoured and armed with light cannons and heavy machine guns. Certainly, who does facilitate the always present Toyota vehicles to the muyahidines? Some neoconverted concessionaire to al-Bagdadi?

THEY LOVE TOYOTAS, WHOSE PAY IT?

The operational strategy of the irregular bands of the Islamic State centres on never let been got in combat by the Armies or other great forces in «lost in advance» combats. His technics and tactics are the constant and far-sighted mobility; the dispersion and the infiltration in the urban fight, going forward in a flexible and wearing out defense, with space cession; the small, dispersed and more or less simultaneous or sequential actions in an area; the flight by covered bounds; the fight with limited goals and in profitable temporaral conditions; the systematic giving up of positions, forcing the enemy to redeploy and to be prepared every time. They can win to the ISIL the necessary time to survive.

In the temporaral occupations of great populations, they extend his defensive positions beyond what it is necessary in the conventional defense. Covering this way a major surface. His «delaying points» are diffuse, secret and imperceptible to the strangers. It is necessary to enter the houses to detect perforated walls and to find alleys under a furniture or a carpet. The destruction that generates the vague heavy fire, reinforces his combat positions, surrounding them with debris that divide and impede the accesses of the enemy. Except when they are reached by one direct impact. The “resistance nests” have more importance in this fighting form. Because the occupation of the defense zone is more tenuous, they cannot strengthen too much the positions, the sights are more short and there exist numerous approximation routes. They depend on the delaying points, to which they return if they are invaded or destroyed. Numerous “alternative positions” exist. This “resistance structure” allows to deceive the enemy, who attacks and burst, on the forward limit of the defense position: about his real extension, the limits of the sectors that form her and the interest of the rebel commands in the defense of the zone; and manages to disperse the heavy fire of the attacker.

THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

REGIONAL PRECEDENTS

The Organic Structure of Social Power in the Arabic Countries.

The internal relations of the families and the groups of local families and clans, are characterized by incorporating into them certain rites, rules, attitudes and taboos. This set of «social procedures» gather, value and quantify his vital needs, his primary emotions and his beliefs. The Moslem religion is followed in the wide geopolitical zone that we treat. Almost all they are of the sunni branch. This accepts the Koran and the Sunna of the Prophet, his facts and sayings (hadithes) due gathered by the disciples, as the orthodox sources of Allah’s revelation to the men. The differences between they reside in the rigor with which they examine and accept the sources of the Sunna. And this assumption of the Islam forms a part of the social inculturation, affirmation and cohesion of these groups.

The social code, which receives different names according to the countries, establishes certain rights for the individual and demands of him certain social duties, towards the family, the clan and the tribe. The disputes on women, gold or valid money and lands are in the origin of the sustaiined hatreds between the tribes. And they must be sustained up to avenging the perceived affront. The own fragility and weakness of the society demands the appearance of the protective values. These might be the hospitality, the loyalty, the friendship, the scorn to the foreigns, the revenge of affronts and hurts, the individual and collective honor. Each of them protects and enlarges in some measure the human group. The relations are interpersonal, in the areas of the family, the clan and the region. They are projected by the opportunity, the nearness, the exchange of goods and the relation. And they become strong with the loyalty, the respect of the accepted procedures and the time of treatment. And depending on the accumulation of these elementary successive acts. The hospitality takes implicit the reciprocity, when one travels, is alone and is not aggressive. This sometimes is perfected by the endowment of an escort to the traveler in insecure zones. The violation of this «escort» by an assault supposes a serious affront for the clan that provided her. The loyalty between the members of the group, for very unstable that is sometimes, cohesions the group. The honor inflates the autoesteem and the appearance before everybody. The revenge, in absence of a real institutional justice, looks for punishment and then repair of the hurts and affronts real or perceived. The scorn of the foreigns not adorned with good qualities or menacing to the group, seeks to prevent them “a priori” his integration in him, as a form of passive defense. The tied friendship tightens the bouns with the equals and the group. If someone joins these elementary groups, it is an object of loyalty and friendship in a personal way. These values would increase by his action, modes and personal behavior.

TWO SELFISH «ALLIES»…

The natural tribal authority is organic, born from himself, structured in his familiar units or social cells. The smaller and isolated is the social group, the power of his natural authority will be the more moderating and of integration, acting as the first between the «equal ones». In these cases, the meeting of the active members (men, hunters) of the clan in assemblies, yurgas, etc., have the supreme and decision-making value. And it is sanctioning of the deviant or solvent conducts to the group. The local chiefs are like favoured negotiators with the different regional and national governments. They enjoy a personal authority more than institutional. And, sometimes, his decisions can be ignored by the adult males, if they are not confirmed by these assemblies. The more be perfected and advance towards the exterior the society, modernizing and being complicated, the power of this authority will become strong and grow and will spread in economic and political areas of action.

This natural tribal structure gives the real practical value and sense to the loyalties and the mundane interests, always relative and still opportunists, of the Arabs. Graphical, paradoxical (for going abreast against the educations of the Islam) and still excessively, we might express it this way: «My tribe and I, against the world; my clan and I against the tribe; my family and I, against the clan; my brother and I, against the family; I, against my brother».

The acelerated Development of the Syrian Civil war.

From the pacific multitudinous manifestations for almost the whole country that was realized at the beginning of 2011, the social revolt has given an important qualitative step in his development and extension. It has become more radical and has «taken the weapons» against the regime. Extending his «social commotion waves» all over the country, to all the participants, to the neighboring countries and up to the foreign powers

Far there already are the manifestations of the young opponents, which did not see to the violence as an acceptable option of national liberation. Nevertheless, some analysts defend that the illegal executions of soldiers, policemen and civilians sympathetic with the regime began almost from the beginning of the widespread protests. And others attributes this radicalization of positions to the selective and progressive repression of the regime.

  PESHMERGAS IN KOBANI (A CANADIAN VOLUNTEER)

To this joins the increasing islamization of the armed opposition. Initially the manifestations were beginnig from mosques or central places. And then, worship was begun to give to the «martyrs» and using the islamist rhetoric in the communications and declarations and in the name of the irregular revolt groups. From the shout in the first videoes hung on the Network or sent outside the country «the people wants the fall of the regime», they have passed to «the people wants the proclamation of the Yihad by the ulemas and mufties». This raising is not lay. It is a raising led by more or less practicing Muslims of the Islam. Lay is the corrupt and greedy regime of the Assad, where the not Islamic confessions were respected and protected. And that has lost the aptitude to defend and to represent the people. This is the “social justification” of supporting and respecting an exclusive dictatorship, almost always dynastic, in exchange for his class privileges.

IRAQIS TRAINING TO FIGHT HOUSE TO HOUSE.

The government of the Assad and his political equipment have left forming a lot of time ago a socialist and national regime. Since they neither represent, neither defend, nor integrate the particular and collective interests of his nation. Now they only lead and protect the members of the wide social religious oligarchy, that monopolizes and distributes in different degrees the institutional, social and economic power of Syria. The Syrian regime is crystallized, without fluency, so much socially, as ideologically and administratively. And is turning into the rind of a «political social fruit», withered, sterile and empty.

For the schemes of the foreign, calm television viewers in his houses at many Km. from the violent facts, the combats are ferocious. But it resides in that to the enemy who tries to kill or to mutilate you from covered and reinforced positions, first he is softened by the direct heavy fire, you cut his retreat occupying a crossing street beyond and his defensive position is assaulted from the ceiling or from the soil, by successive assured bounds, if he has managed to last so much (very strange). Unfortunately here are of no use the romantic resources of «shoot you first, gentlemen rebels». To obtain the decision and to come to the end, the better thing is to show the teeth from the beginning and acting with determination. Though neither the military men nor the rebels have the doctrine or the experience of the urban fighting…

THE INTERVENTION OF THE FOREIGN POWERS

American Initiatives against the EI.

In September, 1914, the USA coordinated a global alliance of western and Arabic nations to stop militarily the sweeping advance of the Islamic State, before the urgent request of help of Iraq. For it, the allies would not deploy combat ground units. It has passed a year of daily dedication to the air selective bombardment, producing more than 7 thousand air attacks to him over individual targets in Iraq and Syria (combat and of heavy fire positions, command or communication buildings, vehicles, training centers) and a vague number of effective falls, between 5 and 8 thousand militants of the EI, with diverse degrees of training and implication. But, the conceptual and operational coherence of the air allied action, has not managed «to debilitate, nor to degrade, and not even, to destroy», paraphrasing the president Obama, the Islamic State with his actions. Which has counter-attacked lately in al-Ramadi, the Anbar’s capital, removing, by the fault of a sandstorm, the glorious armed forces of Iraq; in Palmira, establishing a projection towards Damascus; in Deir ez Zour, occupying the capital and surrounding the Syrian military forces deployed at the west; in Hanaka, disputing the great frontier northeastern Syrian province to the peshmergas of the YPG and relieving the pressure that the EI receives at the east of Alepo and on Raqqa.

MR. ASHTON CARTER.

The artillery, the aviation, with his heavy and precise fires, allow to blind, disturb, neutralize and still to destroy the groun enemy, in increasing order of hurts and effects. The heavy fires support the ground forces, in an employment of combined arms. And to beat the fortifications, the positions of combat, of heavy fire and of antitanks, the enemy bolts, perpendicularly established to the own advance, and the enemy reserves in the different levels of action and to realize the fight counter batteries. The ground forces are those that occupy, clean, clear and keep in the own hands, the attacked enemy positions. Frustrating the reappearances of the enemy between the rocky debris or the nearby bushes and rejecting forceful and definitively his local counter shocks and his more deliberate counterattacks.

THE HEROE OF THE GREAT TASK, GEN. JAMES TERRY…

In the summer of 2014, the United States began to train to Syrian sunnis young volunteers to integrate them, at a beginning, in the weaken and demoralized Free Syrian Army (FSA). His tasks were to attack so much the military forces of Bashar the-Assad, the National Army of Syria (NAS), as the salafists yihadists of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, in the Syrian zones where they were deployed. Reinforcing, this way, the order of battle of the FSA. The training fields of this light irregular infantry were placing in the oriental center of Jordan. Before the recruits’ acceptance, it was established an ideological political filter, directed to detecting possible yihadists or governmental volunteers and that turned out to be a fiasco, for its results. In this training of several weeks also took part, according to the sources, France and Great Britain, and even, apparently, Israeli commands. The initial plan was to manage to train up approximately 5 thousand men, using several batches of recruits. But the attempt got reduced to graduate from the » boots camp» around 3 thousand men, of which, the majority simply deserted. And the rest of the mediocrely formed joined different radical rebel armed groups in Syria.

IRAQIS WILL FIGHT FINE AGAINST THE WIND…

Another attempt of forming Syrian soldiers of lay or moderate ideology was based on a training plan of «up to 15 thousand Syrians voluntaries » on Turkey. Other sources talk of forming 5 thousand soldiers. But both numbers turn out to be ridiculous for the magnitude and complexity of the tasks that would entrust them and for his poorly «combat specific capacity», which would say the expert colonel Trevor N. Dupuy. The date of ending of his «plan» never was ventured by the American oficials in charge. In view of the «deficiencies» previously detected, a very high level of exigency was established in the selection of the men to forming. As consequence of it, only a few dozens of volunteers have been trained since then. And we think that they possess a conviction and motivation flaccid and blurry. It is of indicating the case of the «so called» 30 ª division of the FSA, formed by less than 80 soldiers and that entered Alepo’s zone on July, 2015. In less than one week of «operations», 12 were kidnapped and 18 were hurt, by the irregular of the Front al-Nusrah. It was the first group or batch of Syrian rebels that Washington instructed in the neighboring Turkey. Also was get prisoner by the yihadists, the commander of 30 ª division, Naim Hassan. Al-Nusrah also attacked his barrack at the north of Aleppo, and the rest of the divisional force, around 30 terrified soldiers, ran to sheltering in Afrín, a Kurdish enclave in the north of the province. We think, simply, that the rebels trained by the USA refused to face the salafists yihadists of the al-Qaeda’s franchise and simply broke and got dispersed.

NOBODY IS SHOOTING AT THEM…

This way, the ground forces with could count the USA and his Coalition in this geopolitical zone, to attack the EI in his controlled territory, are: the Iraqi army, who in the spring of 2014, before the Great Disaster, was possessing 200 thousand theoretical men in his battle order; the peshmergas of the Syrian YPG and of the autonomous Kurdish government of Iraq, and the sectarian shiis Iraqi militias, theoretically obedient to the government of Baghdad, but trained and guided by the Iranians. The Iraqi peshmergas received permission of Turkey to cross his territory to attack from the north Kobane’s frontier city, occupied by the IS. Managing to liberate it in a joint effort, including the allied aviation. But, in February, 2015, they were unable to at least harass the «wreckers escorted squads» of the Islamic State, who were demolishing Nimrud’s archaeological deposit, in Niniveh’s province, placed half a way between Mosul and Erbil, his capital.

IN AMERLI, BEFORE THE SUNNIS VILLAGES’ MASACRE, AUGUST 2014…

The shiis militias were activated from the summer of 2014 by the general Qassem Suleimani, sent urgently by Teheran, in support of the shii government of al-Maliki. To compose a rapid containment dike to the advance of the sunnis of the IS. After Mosul’s capture and his appearance in force for all the north and center of Iraq in June and July, 2014. And to realize the enormous task of giving these militias, supported by units of the Revolutionary Guard of Iran (the pashdaran: the army of the guardians of the Islamic revolution), a sufficient action unity and a combat motivation. And to try, by measured, short and successive steps, to be defeating and displacing the yihadistas of the IS, in hard combats, which will be fundamentally urban.

Russia takes an Initiative in Middle East.

From around the beginning of July, 2015, the Russians have been increasing his military direct presence in Syria. His armed forces have principally established in the Latakia, covering Tarsus’s surroundings, his only naval base in the Mediterranean. They include fighterbombers, assault and of troops movement and of rescue helicopters, not driven aircraft of exploration and bombardment and the ground corresponding units of support and of security. And now, from the ends of September, they are bombarding the positions of the armed rebels to al-Assad’s regime, at the southwest of Aleppo; in the Latakia; close to Hama, Homs and Damascus, in the Orontes basin; in Raqqa and other enclaves of the IS, in the north-east of the country and in the great Syrian eastern desert. A spokesman of the Russian Defense Department declared that «they would not indefinitely operate there» and that they were calculating that they would need «approximately 100 days» of air assaults. The Kurdish peshmerrgas of the YPG, the national allies of the USA, deployed by the whole center eastern border with Turkey, have not been bothered. Between those who have suffered his unexpected assaults are the irregular forces of the Front al-Nusrah for the Liberation of the Peoples of the East, the national subsidiary of al-Qaeda. That are so dangerous and ideologically radical as the muyahidines of the Islamic State, but less cruel and less militarily capable.

THE USELESS AND SECTARIAN IRAQ’S EX-PRIME MINESTER.

To the reproaches of some western countries against this intervention, Putin and Lavrov argued that the «multinational Coalition of the 60 allies» was bombarding the salafists yihadists from September, 2014, without having for it a mandate of the UNO. Sure that Obama’s coalition was attacking in Iraq, with the theoretical «previous daily permission» of the Iraqi government. In fact, the four stars’ general James Terry, who is the commander of the American forces in Iraq from November, 2014, acts as an undeserved speaker for his high graduation, with the government and the Iraqi discredited armed forces and militias. But the assaults on Syria of the allies were not possessing the consent of his regime and were operationally going to supporting the peshmergas and debilitating the IS. Let’s stand out that the Russians, as the mentioned leaders have justified themselves, » are very polite and are operating in Syria with invitation of his government».

  OF WHOM ARE THEY LAUGHING…?

It is of remembering that Syria was during decades the allied in the Middle East of the USSR, and today of Russia. And that Syria was also considered during decades a “terrorist antiwestern state”. Of the style of North Korea. Literally flooding the whole geopolitical Islamic region with the assault rifles AK and the grenade-launchers of hollow load RPG, for the guerrilla groups of “popular libration”…

Russia wants to recover his international protagonism and respect. In spite of his diminished demographic, economic and structural capacities and his democratic and political loss of prestige, gained with the conflict of Crimea and Ukraine. With the military intervention in Syria, Putin attacks the root of the problem of the fled Syrians: that is the pressure of a cruel and long civil war on them. And it allows him to calm the Europeans with the short-term containment of the massive and constant invasion of those. Looking for an attenuation of the economic sanctions of the European Union to the government of Putin, for his shameless actions in Ukraine for more than year and a half.

Russia also supports and gives a strong accolade to the Syrian regime with his intervention. After 4 and a half years of war, the NSA is exhausted and impoverished by a bleeding of more than 60 thousand dead men, suffering continuous desertions towards the different rebel groups (from the FSA to the yihadists groups) and having great difficulties to mobilize recruits. The soldiers in ranks in April, 2011, if still are suitable, have not been licensed from the service. The militias sent by Hezbola’s chiíes in 2014 to support them have not been sufficient to change the course of the war against al-Assad. The government already did not have sufficient men to realize a few effective operations of counterinsurgency, against the armed rebels who were harassing it from numerous and different fronts or «assault strips» in the whole Syrian geography.

Obama said: «the moral leadership is a much more powerful weapon than the brute force». This is true, when the concerned speakers possess and exhibit the same civil virtues that a democrat. But, when it is a question of beasts, of selfish, of madmen, of unscrupulous opportunists, of peoples that still perceive the force as the instrument of the strongest, this does not serve. It does not matter in the social level in which they are. The leadership is to convince, to direct with the example, to attract the persons towards yourself, for pure pleasure and affinity. To realize a joint labor in benefit of the social group to which one belongs.

And this social role has been left by Obama. And also some time ago is ignored, by carelessness or disability, the European Union. That is not waited in “these fights in these homes”. But, the “political thing” has horror and abomina of the «emptinesses», of the «absences». And, this way, the opportunist of Putin has been attracted by the suction of both, anxious to lead another more international episode. For which his people, since the first of 2014, endorses it proudly. To compensate his impoverished national revenue and his diminishing demography.

The intervention of Iran in this Middle East conflict.

At the eastern end of the Middle East is the mumified Shii theocracy of the ayatollahs. These, when they want important and rapid results against his neighbors, use the commands or units of the Republican Guard (the Pashdaran). Which is training, equipping and supporting by diverse ways his coreligionists allies of Syria and of Iraq. The Republican Guard is overlapped in the Iranian regime, forming the unconditional and effective military wing of the Islamic Republic of Iran. She, as the Egyptian military men, possess an economic own very wide support. That guarantees them the operational independence and that generously rewards her dedication and loyalty in the fulfillment of his tasks and missions. The “al-Quds brigades” are a special elite group of he Republican Guard. He devotes himself to the espionage and to realize military actions as “deep incursion forces”. And they exhibit the whole capacities panoply for the surreptitious or dirty war between enemy nations. His commander in chief, the general of division 58-year-old Qassem Suleimani, is included in the list of the most sought terrorists by the USA. A detail: the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, Ali Jamenei, considers him to be a «living martyr of the revolution». Whom he incorporated in 1980, whith 23 years, in the incipient Republican Guard.

«YOU WILL BE A FATHER FOR HIM. HE WILL BE A SON FOR YOU».

After the advance of the Islamic State by the north and center of Iraq and the call of the Iraqi shii ayatollah Ali Sistani to the fight against him, Suleimani was sent by Teheran to activate the shiis militias. That were dispersed after the sectarian war. And Suleimani has obtained in a few months the vertebration of all the Iraqi militias against the IS. It has been the IS that who has extracted from the «shades and underground of the State» the general Suleimani. At the end of August, 2014 he appeared in Amerli, Saladino’s province, where it forced the yihadistas to move back. Iran immediately distributed photos of his general operating. But, after the setback of the IS, the shiis militias devastated dozens of sunnis villages of the zone, as collaborators or sympathizers of the enemy. Which is not a good omen for an evolution without sectarisms of the conflict in Iraq.

Likewise, units of the Pashdaran are also operating in Syria against the sunnis enemies os Bashar al-Assad. Reinforcing the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the weared out and insufficent Hezbola iregular forces.

THE FIGHTING AGAINST THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND SYRIA V.

The Military Operations of the Islamic State of Syria and Levant.

The Islamic State has the strategic advantage of his territorial unity, which allows him to support the fights following his interior communication lines. His enemies are dispersed by his borders and operate in multitude of sectors or strips. This advantage can be used to fix and keep his enemies, dispersed and operationally unconnected for the different countries and zones. This way, IS preventing them any concentration to attack him.

So, in his Mosul’s operational center, with approximately 2 million habitants, the major city under his power, he keep the Erbil’s peshmergas fixed, the capital of the Iraqi autonomous Khurdistan. These are not capable of throwing an individual offensive, to go snatching cities and zones from the ISIL and are kept at the defensive. They are Sunnis Kurds, that do not want to coordinate with the army of Iraq and the sectarian Shiites militias.

In Anbar, the ISSIL occupied al-Ramadi, its capital, where the Iraqi army went out, here also, at the disbandment, in an unforeseen and accelerated retrograde march. And he threatens the western flank of Baghdad, which says to be training and concentrating forces to recover her, departing from the new base in Taqaddum, at 25 km from al-Ramadi, where are a new reinforce of 450 new American soldiers, and that acts as a bolt, a ground obstruction, against the projection of the ISIL over Baghdad.

 IS’S FIGHTERS SUPOSSED KILLED BY KURDS

The Islamic State has now three great operational areas:

The first great zone includes all the south of the Caliphate, from Aleppo’s south-east up to al-Ramadi, following the course of the high Euphrates. In her, the ISSIL is spreading and being consolidated, occupying Palmyra city, finishing the expelling of the National Syrian Army of Dar-ez-Zour’s province (his last troops in her are surrounded at the west of the capital) and the Iraqi soldiers and the Shiites militias from Anbar’s province. At the west of Palmyra are Tiyas and the military airports of the Shayrat, occupied by the NSA, which are vulnerable targets for the ISSIL, capable of attacking them from two marching directions. With it, a western defensive flank directed to Damascus might be established.

In the north of Iraq, the ISSIL keeps his positions in Nínive’s province and part of Saladin’s province, so being consolidated also in the high Tigris.

In Syria, at Aleppo’s north and north-east, along around 400 Kms. of the border with Turkey, up to Hasaka’s frontier province, the ISISL keeps a strategic game based on small offensives and tactical retreats, in a zone of great operational instability. Trying to debilitate the Front al-Nusrah (near the frontier Azaz), the Syrian peshmergas (in Kobani) and other groups opponents and to keep open the narrow frontier sectors, Ras al-Ayn, between others, where he realizes his exchanges of crude oil and derivatives, seized goods, armaments and new supporters. Also he wants to stop the offensive of the opposition in Aleppo, since the ISSIL does not have now free means to exploit any destabilization in Aleppo, that would be produced this way. But in Hasaka he wants to be consolidated, to increase his geographical continuity, to protect his frontier passages with Iraq and Turkey, here is Tel Abyad, and to increase his strategic rear, reinforcing this way the Palmyra’s projection over Damascus.

THEY ALSO USE THE USEFUL FOOLS…AN AUSTRIAN.

Turkey, which wants to keep in his south border a difficult military politic balance of power, suspects so much of the (Syrian) Kurds of the YPG and of the ISSIL, both approaching in force to his territory. And Erdogan is considering to establish a safety zone of 10 Km. in depth in Syrian territory from the common border, occupying her with around 12 thousand Turkish soldiers. From her, the Turks might also partially control other more 25 or 30 Km. in depth, using his heavy artillery. It is a thorny and controversial topic, of international indefinite transcendence, so the command of the FF.AA. has asked Erdogan for a formal wrote order, that the President still has not granted.

The air bombardments of the Coalition of the 60 nations, assigned to the Operation «Inherent Resolve», erode and cause casualties to the Islamic State during almost one year. But they do not stop his military principal operations of fixation of his enemies and of increasing the territory of the Islamic State. At less that the western countries, including the USA, the NATO and the European Union, in any degree and practical necessary national combination, are ready and resolve to put on the Syrian and/or Iraqi territories a “sufficient investment of their own soldiers”, in the form of combined ground forces, distributed in the combinations adapted for the tasks that they will assume, the ISSIL will not be beaten by his enemies of these Arabic infected countries. And it seems that the ISSIL will possible be defend indefinitely from his frontier enemies. In the air raids in Syria take part Arabia, the USA, Bahrain, Canada, the Arab United Emirates and Jordan. In Iraq, asking for the authorities permission attack Australia, Belgium, Denmark, the USA and Great Britain.

THE FIGHTING AGAINST THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAK AND SYRIA IV.

(FINAL)

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, nevertheless, has created his bases, from the beginning of his existence, next to his enemies and accessible to them. And they have not been attacked in force and disturbed by the shameful military disabilities of their regional enemies. And al-Baghdadi knew this and he has very well valued it, on having decided to create them this way, with a fine leader «command correct sense» and of the state strategy. Colonel C. M. Woodhouse established that «the art of defeating the guerrillas is the art of getting the people in opposition to them». And in the desert lands of the Islamic State is not necessary to establish how this can be achieved. Already al-Baghdadi is in charge of it, with a zeal worthy of better cause, to make enemies to the death with all that are not of his group or of his pleasure. So now, only motivated, trained and equipped men are absent to do a laborious, but not difficult mission… Already we have seen it. Will they be found by the Iraqis, the Syrians and the air Coalition of 60 countries?

Exemplary and Triumphant Counterguerrilla Campaigns.

In 1.948 the communist Greek guerrilla, in full world postwar period, were on the verge of forming forces semiregulars to openly attack the government. They also wanted to extend the “Steel Curtain” to the South-East of Europe. Their military, not decisive and badly interpreted successes, according to the correlation of forces and the strategic opportunity of the revolutionary communist process, decided them to already face the National Greek Army and to beat it. As did Mao, at the right moment of the Chinese civil war. This way, the Democratic Army of Greece (the DSE or Dimokratikos Stratos Ellados) congregated great part of his guerrilla detachments, which were spreading as a rosary from north to south over Greece, from the Peloponnese up to Macedonia, in the East, to form «regular» units, to which they called «brigades» and «divisions». But this «regular» rebel force, with 12-15 thousand militants, was only the tenth part of the Greek army. Their permanent or temporal bases were allowing them to realize sudden attacks, assaults and ambushes against the governmental authorities, policemen and military men. But, far from them, the bands were lacking sufficient supplies and popular supports for their operations. On the other hand, the guerrilla principal bases, placed in the zone of Vitsi and Grammos, at the northwest of the country, near the border with Yugoslavia, were vital for the revolutionaries for the receipt of the logistic support from this country.

  COMMANDERS POSE AFTER AN ENCOUNTER IN MOUNTAIN GREECE…

A Greek Army patrol sweeping in search of Communist guerrillas.

But they were constituting some orthodox, tangible and attainable targets for the heavy fire and the military force at the disposal of Greece. For this time, the break of Titus with Stalin and the Komintern was total and irreversible. And Titus already was not interested in promoting in the neighboring country a revolution that would derive towards “not revisionist positions”. The principal Yugoslavian faucet was closed and immediately afterwards Albania and Bulgaria also stopped their minor helps. Presented this way the clash, in a month of orthodox operations of march, assault, siege and annihilation, the Greek forces advised and supported by the British and with the military help of American material, occupied the mountainous zone of those guerrilla essential bases, in August of 1.949. That constituted a conventional, hard and definite aim, which had to be defended by the Popular Red «army». With it the Greek democrats stemmed definitively a communist insurrection of «national liberation», which was extending, insoluble and menacing, to a civil war from 1.945.

At the end of World War II, the British awarded Chin Peng the Order of the British Empire (OBE) for his heroics in leading guerrillas against the Japanese. He became the leader of the Communist Party of Malaya.

The first attempts of the Malay guerrillas to create bases and establish in them the communist administration were in 1.945. The irregulars of the so called Army of the Malay People went out of the refuge of the jungles, where they were hiding of the Imperial Japanese Army. In 1.948 they initiated the military revolt against the British, establishing in isolated communities of Chinese colonists, seated in Malaya. The communists were expecting to attract to their cause the workers of the mines, plantations and estates and extending this way their bases. But their political propaganda was not tuned with the people in general. And, specially, with the not Chinese community, which was the great majority of the Malays. The general Henry Briggs took advantage of their weaknesses and attacked the lines of supply, preventing them from creating big detachments and forcing them to be dispersed. Briggs was possessing battalions of Gurkhas, of Malays, of British and of Chinese and soon realized that these units were too much heavy to operate against the bands. And with a part of them he formed platoons and companies of “guerrillas hunters”. That were penetrating in the surrounding jungles, were living on the ground, were gathering information of all kinds and were scourging, ambushing and attacking to the communist groups.

GENERAL BRIGGS

GENERAL TEMPLER

And his successor, the general Gerald Templer systematicly attacked them, and they already could not consolidated in any place. This way, the Chinese Malay communists never overcame the primitive stage of stray persecuted guerrillas and only could use the isolated assaults as principal tactics. The tenacity and the patience of the British, who did not propose to prevent them from creating directly bases, but to methodically destroy them, rooted out the guerrillas of the inhabited zones and thrown them again to the jungle and, finally, to the surrender. The following pacification of the infected zones by the communist bands, realized with firmness and consideration, with a strong fist sheathed in a velvet glove, consolidated the support of their habitants to the Greek government. The revolt was definitively suffocated in 1.955. The local communists wanted to imitate Mao and to fight an irregular protracted war. But they lacked two strategic means for get it: enough popular support and stable bases.

THE END.