Valery Gerasimov, Russian military commander in Ukraine. 2nd. Part.

(continuation)

The mercenary and rapacious Wagner Group.

A minor issue arises, but of great importance due to the disagreements it creates in Moscow and with the troops in the campaign. It is the growing presence of the Wagner Group as a Russian fire extinguisher in the war in Ukraine.

WAGNER RECRUITS RUSSIAN CONVICTS.

It includes convicted criminals, Syrian and Libyan mercenaries «among other elements of bad living» and Russian volunteers. In general, they enjoy disparate salaries, depending on their experience, origin and life path; a convict is basically paid with his freedom, more or less garnished with a clean record.

Their boss is Prigozhin, a Russian plutocrat and Putin henchman. This man is in conflict with part of the Kremlin and with senior military leaders over the permanence of his «private mercenary armed group» in the Russian ranks in the campaign.

The implicit tolerance of the Russian military commands in Ukraine with the men of the Wagner Group generates enormous discomfort among the officers, non-commissioned officers and soldiers stationed there. And it greatly lowers their combat morale and their «esprit de corps«.

If Gerasimov comes with full powers as commander of the campaign and considers the previous arguments, in relation to the motivation and combative disposition of his Russian regular forces, he has to recompose the situation of the forces, in relation to the presence of the Wagner Group in the Russian ranks.

Unity of Action and Concentration of Efforts in the Campaign.

Another of the capital problems that Gerasimov will have to solve is the strategic and operational Integration of all the active Fronts of the Russian forces in presence.

To establish a strategic «Superior Effort Unit» that is coordinated, proportional and synergistic. To optimize in «effective times«, according to the «superior universal saving means» principle and the «military principle of the Objective», the distribution and coordinated use over time of the human and material capacities assigned to the different Fronts.

Thus, the Russians have several Fronts with different importance and presenting different opportunities.

The Kiev Northern Front is inactive. Lukashenko is Putin‘s due ally and with his bravado and maneuvers he causes uncertainty in Kiev. It offers an opportunity to drain mobile Ukrainian troops, to fix and protect the Front from possible Russian rapid raids.

Here the presence in Belarus of a mechanized Russian “task force” would suffice. Counting on tanks and infantry combat and transport vehicles, with support from artillery, engineers, defense against aircraft and ground support aviation and its escort. And integrating a couple of divisions. That moved around the south of Belarus, prowling.

The Crimean Front is active towards Kherson, Mariupol and Zaporiya and creates uncertainty towards Odessa. It allows the defense of the 4 territories annexed by Putin.

The Donbass Front, in southeastern Ukraine, is active in the oblasts or provinces of Lugansk, to the north, along the border with Russia, and Donetz, to the south. The Northeast Front, towards Kharkov is in hibernation. Both hold promise in theory in this new phase of the war.

The joint and coordinated action from both Russian Fronts, of «breaking shock forces» of the Ukrainian Tactical defense. Followed, after the irruption, by «armored mobile groups» with air support, advancing in the Ukrainian operational rear towards a town or small area. Forming a wide and double enveloping movement around the enemy. It can create a “pocket” of it or, at least, a serious threat of cutting off communications for the most active Ukrainian forces, and therefore equipped with heavy equipment, deployed in the east of the country. Russia has more than enough regular mobile forces for this.

The Ukrainian Counterattack.

The Ukrainians can counterattack by employing armored forces with sufficient punch, such as the more modern Main Battle Tanks. The “heavy” tanks that Zelensky claims from the US and Europe now. The Challengers (with their Chobham armor); Leopards 2 A5, of German engineering; Leclercs, the first type built of this new generation of tanks and the Americans Abrams.

Advancing rapidly from the depth of the Ukrainian deployment, on one flank of the Russian advancing points. Let’s remember that this territory is favorable ground for armored vehicles.

For this, Ukraine will need to have several battalions of such tanks. Distributed by their most important concentrations, each with about 50 tanks. Distributing or employing it by isolated companies is to waste its special and unique off-road forward speed, shock and firepower, protected by effective armor. Which is completely decisive in modern combat.

In all this theoretical filigree of maneuvers and combats, the most capable, equipped, motivated and prepared will win.

The denatured current Russian air front.

The goal of the current Russian air front is the weakening of Ukrainian morale. Through the successive attack on civilian facilities (energy, water and communications) and urban centers of some importance in Ukraine.

It should be noted that this rather criminal objective does not target the enemy military forces, but their unarmed rearguard populations. For more INRI, it began to be used shamelessly when Putin and his Kremlin bosses and henchmen realized that his “special military action” in Ukraine was a “bluff”. And that the Ukraine was a tough nut to crack for the Russian forces employed in it.

MASTER SUN.

Almost 2,500 years ago, Master Sun (Sun Tzu), in the Warring States Era, already warned that «when the general is already appointed by the sovereign, he should not interfere in his affairs» and «when the courtiers and ministers interfere in his command, they bring misfortune to the Kingdom”.

In addition, this objective has already been used in other cases and with zero effectiveness, by the way.

Japan was mercilessly bombarded by the US, when it had already managed to occupy the Japanese islands (e.g., Okinawa) close enough to insular Japan. The Japanese were already preparing their civilian population for a Numantine resistance to the invader. Creating an immense natural fortress on its islands, where each one was a fortified redoubt of it.

They were the two atomic bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which represented an «ascent to the upper limits» in the fight against civilian rearguards. Because they were much more than a very large cannon shot. The ones that forced Japan to surrender unconditionally to the Americans. Because they threatened (although they didn’t have any more artifacts at the time), to destroy the essence and Japanese national identity.

In general, the use of the «indiscriminate bombardment of the civilian rearguards», what it achieves is to galvanize them around their government and their armed forces. Because they perceive from the enemy a demonic, fierce hatred towards them, which would seek the destruction of their identity, culture and idiosyncrasy.

Modernly, such bombing type was used by the US in North Vietnam. They left South Vietnam in 1973 and in 1975 the communist forces occupied it, almost without resistance.

Russia’s Air Support to its Ground Forces.

The Russian air front in Ukraine must be directed against enemy troop concentrations (reserves, attack preparations, marching forces), their ground communications and logistics network, command posts and communications centers, attack points of their forces, artillery and rocket and drones launch positions.

FINAL.

Valery Gerasimov, Russian military commander in Ukraine.

Introduction.

With all the accumulated defeats suffered by the Army of the Russian Federation in its «special military operation» in Ukraine from February 24, 2022 until now, Vladimir Putin does not rest, he is irritated and has no peace.

The latest «ace up his sleeve» is Army General Valery Gerasimov, born in the Russian city of Kazan, 67 years ago and Chief of the General Staff since 2012.

An almost ideal age for the work that is coming up. Defined by organization, structural changes, discipline, sufficient flow of means and a strong hand.

Almost as USSR Marshal Georgi Zhukov had it. When he went to important battle places to preside, on behalf of STAVKA, the General Staff of the Workers’ and Peasants’ Red Army, the main offensives of his Front Groups against the Germans, A Front was the Western equivalent of Army Group, although the Red Armies were smaller in men and means than the Western ones.

MARSHAL OF THE SOVIET UNION GEORGI ZHUKOV, WITH ALL HIS AWARDS.

When Putin appears with his senior military commanders in the photos, his Defense Minister Shoigu is to his right and Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of all the Armed Forces, is to his left.

As Assistants at his Main Command Post, probably in Crimea, Gerasimov will have the Chief of the Land Forces of the Russian Federation, to which the vast majority of the troops present in that theater of operations belong, and the current deputy chief of his General Staff (his G-1, in our nomenclature).

At first there was talk that the appointment of Gerasimov was a maneuver by the top Russian military commanders. To see how an intellectual general, a modern hybrid warfare theorist, performed in the field. But, it is not true that he has no combat experience. He has enough of her.

Gerasimov already participated in his day in the two «anti-banditry wars» or counterinsurgency (Russian name) in Chechnya. That was fighting hard for his independence from Russia, as the heir of the USSR, the former imperialist oppressor. In the second, in 1999, he was the deputy head of the Russian armed forces in the campaign. He is accused of war crimes against Chechen populations for his direct action.

He also acted, already as Chief of the General Staff of the Russian forces, during Russia’s campaign in direct support for the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, since 2015, making frequent trips to the Syrian theater of operations.

Based on his direct experiences and his ability to analyze and synthesize the issues of his profession, Valery Gerasimov developed his Theory of Military Doctrine, currently in force in Russia. It’s his Hybrid War Theory.

Although it is nothing more than a Compilation of diplomatic, heterodox foreign, economic and military action policies and their trends. In short, what Gerasimov advocates is to use against the enemy all the means of a modern State in a great centripetous and synergistic action: diplomats, heterodox exteriors (various support for internal enemy dissidents, including armed forces, boycotts, promotion of popular discontent), economic, military

Thus, Putin decided with his military leadership to replace the «butcher of Syria» Colonel General Surovikin, as military chief of the Ukrainian campaign, appointed just a few months ago. He was the fourth replacement for the Russian campaign manager in Ukraine.

The general of ideas and methods with a strong and intransigent hand and centralized orders, which were given from top to bottom, by a general with more flexible and fresh training and ideas.

Based on his direct experiences and his capacity for analysis and synthesis of the issues of his profession, Valery Gerasimov developed his Theory of Military Doctrine, currently in force in Russia. It’s his Hybrid War Theory.

Although it is nothing more than a Compilation of diplomatic, heterodox foreign issues, economic and military action policies and their trends. In short, what Gerasimov advocates is to use against the enemy all the means of a modern State in a great centripetous and synergistic action: diplomats, heterodox exteriors (various support for internal enemy dissidents, including armed forces, boycotts, promotion of popular discontent), economic, military

Thus, Putin decided with his military leadership to replace the «butcher of Syria» Colonel General Surovikin, as military commander of the Ukrainian campaign, appointed just a few months ago. It was the fourth replacement of the Russian campaign commander in Ukraine.

The general of ideas and methods with a strong and intransigent hand and centralized orders, which were given from top to bottom, by a general with more flexible and fresh training and ideas.

That adapted the stagnant and heavy working of the Russian Army to a war of IV (guerrillas) and V (hybrid) generations.

Fighting against a very well equipped enemy (with better equipment and materials than theirs, for a conventional war, in general), committed and determined in their fight, with highly trained officers and cadres, tremendously motivated.

And, educated, trained and mentalized for a modern war, both of «operational movement and combat» and of «guerrillas and counterguerrillas».

Some Problems for Gerasimov.

Many are the problems accumulated by the Army of the Russian Federation and not all of them are solvable in the short term. Probably because they are already structural.

Continuous, effective and sufficient military logistics.

One of the star, creaking, problems of the Russian military is to establish a modern and effective comprehensive military logistics. Even defining it is quite simple for a professional.

INDOCTRINATION IN A SOVIET STATE AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVE.

But, in the USSR and now in the Russian Federation, they have not been able to or did not know how to do it well.

In the USSR it was a classic that the potatoes collected in a kolkhoz or sovkhoz rotted in the field. Meanwhile, a few tens of km away, the urban people suffered from hunger or a nearby alcohol manufacturing industry did not receive the potatoes to produce it, from the starch of them.

Probably, the seminal error comes from the Marxist-Leninist economic doctrines, far from reality even in theory. In this case, the economy.

Where logistics is not considered, nor is «added value» attributed to it in the economy. Therefore, in the Budgets and the theoretical Soviet Five-Year Plans it was not taken into account.

The “total value” of a good comes from the “labor of the workers” and, later, of the peasants as well. And, amen.

As all the value of the good is attributed to the producers, the difference between the sale price and the production cost of the workers, the famous surplus value, is accused of being Appropriated (Stealed) by the bloody capitalists.

Capitalist production is not simply the production of commodities; it is essentially the production of surplus value.

This is one more theoretical fallacy of communism, with disastrous economic and military consequences for the country.

Although communism has already disappeared from Russia as a theoretical ruling force, many of its styles, ideas and methods, applied for 70 years, have penetrated and endured in the idiosyncrasies of society and its culture.

(To be continued)

Reflections about Spain and Catalonia.

Introduction.

The nation is one and unique by essence. And it arises from the commitment of the citizens to live in community. And it is kept and preserves in the defense of this union, which is loved, against his enemies of inside and outside. A nation is provided with one social politics selfconsciousness. And collaborate to create and support it the history, the tradition and the customs, and the own language and moral sense. And contribute secondly to it the own ethnia and the territory, that not always exist, specially the first one. This way, the territory of a country is not a nation. Nor it is not the inarticulate population of a territory under an only one government.

Resultado de imagen de nacion fuerte «The Nation is stronger with the unity of his sons and the members of the families than by the military power».

Though the territory that occupies is necessary to give a nation the possibility of supporting a social administrative structure, that guarantees the exercise of his sovereignty. In spite of the «civilized» current times, all we know the problems and the discomforts that suffers the Kurdish people, deprived of a national own territory and «distributed» between Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. One of the essential problems of the Kurds is that they form a part of despotic countries and, even, ethnically exclusive. This way, in these countries, they are considered to be citizens of secondclass, different, and, even, potentially dangerous, on having been always national minorities. But, endowed with a strong social cultural identity, which prevents his absorption by the rest of the national populations to whom they belong.

In a nation fit several not antagonists ethnias. Because his base is the life together conviviality, the respect and the rights and duties for all. And so long as they love this «harmonic set» of persons and his well-being, peace and jointly progress destinies.

When the nation is loved by his components and there exists in them the desire to serve and defend her in community, the concept of the motherland appears. Both ideas are interrelated essentially. And, the absence of the patriotism or the shame to practise it by members of a «social political community», leads to the defenselessness and the dismemberment of his nation, in major or minor degree. Being formed then «groups of associate individuals» with dissolvent ideas and interests of the naional group.

Resultado de imagen de fuerzas armadas símbolo patriotismo GUARANTOR OF THE UNITY AND SYMBOL OF THE PATRIOTISM.

It is not of surprising that the Defense Forces of a nation are, as institutions and in his members, which hoist, teach and practise the patriotism, as one of his essential virtues. Because it is possible only to die for what is loved. The Defense Forces of a nation are the specialized set of the «nationals or patriots» for the belligerent and complete Defense of his «national country«.

The common historical flow of live in unity, progress and peace.

In the XIVth and XVth century, the Castilian turns into the language of the State, entering in struggle with the educated Latin, to which it displaces. The «toledan dialect» will contribute the linguistic procedure to the Castilian. The Castilian prose spreads and puts the finished touches in the extensive literature of the High Middle Age. The advance of the Reconquest in the whole Andalusian territory, with his 4 small kingdoms of culture and Islamic religion, drived by the «unevenness in the centrifugal impulse» of the Christians, incorporated numerous words of Arabic root into the Castilian. Following a process of enrichment and idiomatic definition, progressive and extensive, similar to the already seen in previous stages. There appears Antonio Nebrija’s Grammar, which defines the new Spanish language.

During the 16th century, the Castilian, which happens to be the Spanish, turns into universal language. The Spanish is taking the role of literary language of the whole Spanish nation. Aragon, Valencia, Majorca, Catalonia and Navarre (incorporated in Castile in 1512), will keep an administrative autonomies tied to the Crown of Spain. The Spanish presence in Europe, for his character of great world power, and his expansion in the Americas, take to the incorporation in the Spanish of numerous European and indigenous words.In this final epoch, the Spanish acquires the essential of his current structure.

Reconstrucción del primer estandarte de España. /Hugo Vázquez Bravo y Ramón Vega Piniella. A reconstruction of the first known Spanish national flag carried by Gonzalo Fernández de Córdoba, the Great Captain, in Naples.

In this multiethnic and polycultural Nation that emerges with an immense vital force, all the Hispanic peoples made themselves big. In the 16th century all the inhabitants wanted to belong and to follow the paths of the Spains. Nation that arose in the desire of the royal subjects to coexist in her. And that was kept with his commitment to defend her in his concept and integrity.

There were not easy for Catalonia and Spain the times of Philip IV and the Count Duke of Olivares, Gaspar of Guzman, the favorite minister of the king from 1621. This had proposed to reform and stimulate the idea of Spain in the whole Kingdom and to recreate the Empire of Philip II. Spain had an enormous and long task ahead. But the capacities and the means were not at the needed height.

Philip IV was an apathetic and pusillanumous person. The program hit with a conformist and slow bureaucracy, called to realize it, and with the national oligarchies, called to follow it. Spain had wars and armed conflicts in all the Western Europe: in Germany, France, the Netherlands or Flanders, Italy and in the east and west parts of Spain. The soldiers, not always with good controls, were not fighting well. The Thirty Years War was continuing and in France, the cardinal Richelieu was arising as intelligent, tough and shrewd enemy of Spain.

The revolts of 1640 in Catalonia and Portugal (in December, the uprising of his oligarchies led to his final separation of Spain) were disastrous for the plans of Olivares. The revolt and Catalan secession or «war of the peasants» extended until 1652. It developed with the reforms of the Count Duke, to distribute and confirm the efforts of the peninsular regions in favor of the common interest. Till then, Castile had paid in a disproportionate way the expenses of the external commitments of the Habsburgs. The immediate reason of the rejection to these plans was that the Catalan oligarchy saw them as a threat to his historical freedoms. That actually were an administrative privileges of the medioevo, centred on that they forbid the Catalan troops to serve out of the Principality.

Resultado de imagen de 1640 rebelión Cataluña The beginning of the «Peasants Revolt» on the Corpus Day.

The frictions between the population and the exiguous forces quartered in Barcelona took to the raising of June, 7 (day of the Corpus Christi), that was generalized and extended by the whole Catalonia. This derived in a revolution of the poor and peasants against the nobles and the rich ones or Catalan oligarchy. Soon, this one recovered part of the control and asked for help and protection to France. Richelieu did not lose the opportunity to debilitate Spain and supported the seditious.

But, the Frenchmen, with his protectorate, made themselves immediately more onerous and greedy for the Catalans that Spain. For example, flooding the region of French highly rival products. This way, the Catalan oligarchy, which without a few clear and pondered aims, proposed to damage the Spanish Empire, harmed, with his senseless action and without the minor consideration, the Catalan people and his Principality. The cooling of the shock with France and the end of the Thirty Years War, allowed to send a Hispanic army who occupied easily Barcelona, in 1651.

In the Succession War of Spain of 1714, Catalonia fighting close to Spain, supported the Habsburg candidate, who was the dynastic line of succession. If was reigning the Borbon, of the royal French dynasty, a new dynasty was accepted and imposed in the royal Spanish throne. This would join us to France for temporal «family agreements», which not always would be favorable or neutral for the Spanish nation. We have the case of Carlos III, with very useful prime ministers for the Kingdom and with a personal behavior that, for discreet, was good. Which, before, when he was king of Naples, was humiliated by the Royal Navy. And that immediately of ascending to the throne, established a family agreement with France, which took us in 1763 to an unnecessary and bad war with England.

Gained the civil war by Philip V, whose troops had access by our ground borders, Catalonia was occupied by his troops. But, again, Catalonia received the treatment that his importance was deserving in the Spanish nation. And, prompt, the Decrees of New Plant and other administrative dispositions were favoring it in the flow of life of the Hispanic peoples.

Resultado de imagen de 1714 Cataluña lucha contra Borbones Catalonia fights in 1714 for the dynastic continuity in Spain.

The Fathers of the Motherland are not his owners.

To believe themselves is a common perception of the despots and «modern national liberators«. It has his origin in the conduct of the satraps and absolute ancient monarches. And it is reinforced furthermore when, as in the Islam, the religion consolidates and sustains also the political power that they exercise.

The dynastic corruption of the Pujol family, implicitly accepted by his followers and extras, for being the visible promoter of the modern «Catalan sovereignty», is one of the parasitic ivies that took possesion of the Catalan public moneys.

The commissions of even more than the famous 3% indicated by Pascual Maragall in the Parlament, gathered methodically by Convergence and Union, the party of the Catalan bourgeoises, has managed to cover with mud the Palace of the Lyceum. Party that was dissolved in 2016, with his impeded headquarters, and it re-turned in the PdeCat.

And a provincial institution of State condition, as is the Deputation of Barcelona, destined to help in his management the small municipalities with minor structures, turned aside around 12 million Euros, assigned by the National budget, to the members of the PdeCat party. Of which, the last 2 millions were destined to the aims of the international cooperation and development (operation Estela of the Spanish National Police, on May 25).

(TO BE CONTINUED)

THE MILITARY SURPRISE AS ART AND HETERODOXY

Almost all the technologies, tactics and operations directed to obtaining the tactical or operational surprise over the enemy, can be benevolent considered at the edge of the regulations and existing procedure. That are practised in the different countries and groups of them or supranational alliances.

Between other reasons, to fight only according to the «book» is usually too much acquaintance and predictable. In addition, many of the general «knowledge» gathered in them are shared by different blocs and nations, even antagonistic. And it is necessary, to respect the regulations and ordinances and to look for the aim indicated by the command, as the goal to obtaining.

But the creative and decisive action must follow the one that we call the «way of the surprise«. As guide, compass, of our decisions and actions. Looking for that fleeting and juicy opportunity that arises in the development of the mutual actions between the armed rivals; those careless or vulnerable enemy weaknesses, in conditions that we can create sometimes, equally more unforeseen and unusual. To obtain our goals with more forcefulness, efficiency, elegance and rapidity. Achieving it with fewer loss of time, of men and of means. Let’s remember the basic and universal principle of the economy of the means.

Sure that following always the «book» they will be able to approach and to take to good term the common operations. But, apart from the fact that the enemy has an essentially equal doctrine and regulations, a way of fighting will be first known and then learned or dominated and, probably, up to overcome finally by the enemy. The triumphant Germans in the first period 1939-1941, with the extension of the war, allowed the knowledge and the learning of his war of combined weapon by his enemies. That finally overcame them in technologies, tactics and operations and drove them to their thunderous defeat in 1945.

And this «guide» is of special need and affection in the bureaucratized and crystallized armies. Where the unforseeable, not guilty failures, are not only a contingency to be overcame by the set. But they can be also an administrative or political weapon against the persons in charge. And where the follow-up of the «book» and the superiors orders to the letter, armour and protect the low commands of the responsibility of their acts and results.

Martin Van Creveld said that was the anteroom, before the final unworkability and prostration, of «the military organizations that were not getting up-to-date and renewing». Martin Van Creveld was expelled as lecturer, many years ago, from Israel’s Military High College.

Then, the results will be obtained increasingly at the cost of the wear and the men means and materials losses. Tending to triumph then the rival that more demographic and economic capacity has.

There arises then a corollary of this way of thinking the military thing. The zeal to avoid human falls, extended to all the modern armies or of IIIrd generation, will lead to the preventive, protective and therapeutic employment of the own heavy fire. Looking that the own forces do not have to fight at close ranges. This is called military modern technology and is highly regarded by the national armament industries. This is not more than the perversion and trick of the heavy fire. Whose functions or tasks, in increasing order of action and efficiency, are: to blind, to disturb, to neutralize or cover and to destroy the enemy in the different fighting forms and situations.

And the action over the aim will tend to the physical destruction, as guarantee of the security of the men. In the actual civil wars in Iraq and Syria, we have the examples in the exagerate and methodical bombardments on the enemies. Armed and civilians; real and suspects.

The Military surprise, looking for the enemy dislocation and shock

During his operations, the enemy deployment is conforming in the direction and with the intention that he has decided and determined, for his military echeloned means and for his logistic routes. This way, he is showing his «cards» to his rival, depending on his action tempo and he is commiting, according to those.

Our surprise can create «per se» a new «exposed flank«, another more or less critical «vulnerability» in the enemy. That he was not considering yet, that he was not waiting, nor was prepared to defend her by some of the fighting forms. That are the attack and the defense, in their varieties and combinations.

Our surprise «penetrates» in the enemy deployment, seeking to shock and dislocate functionally or positionally it. And, at least, to cause him losses, to occupy profitable positions for our operational development, to diminish his tempo or operational pace and to confuse, delay and disturb him in his plans and deployments. Using for it, by our part, the minimal means expense and seeking to achieve the maximum possible effect on the enemy. With which we optimize the effort of our actions, following the general principle of the economy of the available means.

When the enemy reacts, to offset and overcome the effect of our surprising action, he is adapting necessarily to our intention. And, if that one is serious, he moves away more or less from his interests and plans. With his reacting movements for the rejection and the attack to our forces, the enemy is disregarding his intention and his mission. In relation to these, the enemy is removed from them and also unbalanced. This way, a right conceived, planned and realized surprise can «prepare» the enemy for us. So, he face in disadvantage, with fewer available resources and a worse deployment, our offensive principal action. That would be already more direct, massive and orthodox.

In such a way that exist a whole range of possible effects to obtaining over the enemy with our surprising actions. That will change also according to the means destined to obtain our surprise, the conception, the preparation and the accomplishment of it and the available time, considering also the set of our operations.

The Russia of Putin.

Russia reappears after the Dismemberment of the URRS.

The new Russia of Putin, after the difficult and undifferentiated parenthesis of Boris Yeltsin, is waking up from a traumatic transition to a formalist democracy. Not reflected yet in his structures of power and administration. After Yeltsin, the authorities had to be liberated of the «neocapitalist mafia oligarchy«. Which was looking for a political amorphous and of wide apex, specific «form», which was governing the country and was controlling the alternation of the parties, in more or less free elections. Into these ad hoc structures is transmuting the whole superviser and bureaucratic apparatus of the USSR, created throughout 70 years of ferreous dictatorship of the CP. For what it is not chance the professional origin and the mega presidentials manners of Vladimir Putin.

But that give to the new Russia an international creativity and an operational flexibility, that do not have his competitors more «calmed, formal and super regulated». He is what we would say of a good stylist boxer: «he has a great waist». Only to remember the «day of prayer and fasting for the peace in Syria», that proclaimed the Pope Francisco for September, 7, 2013. He accompanying for 4 hours the prayer in the Saint Peter Square that Saturday. Within a few hours, Putin proposed to the international Powers (including the inoperative UNO, which in the international conflicts only serves to give a hypocritical stamp of legality to the public things) the destruction «in situ» of the chemical arsenal of the Syrians of Bashar al-Assad and not his air bombardment. This took France and the USA with the changed foot. And to the Nobel prize of the Peace Mr. Obama, which had asked the support of the Congress for his Air Raid («necessary for the brutality of the Syrian Government with his population»), looking in anguish for supports between the legislators. Because he saw that they would rejecting up even his more moderate plans of intervention.

Resultado de imagen de putin helps al-Assad PUTIN HELPS AL-ASSAD’S REGIME…

The loss of his «controlled allies» of the Warsaw Pact and the COMECON, after the cold war, only left Russia to a geographically look for «new influences» towards the Asia Central, from Syria to the India and Vietnam. Turkey is a proverbial enemy of the Russians. Though now Erdogan, after knocking down a Russian ground attack plane on the northwest of Syria, has become a very friend of Putin. But this is relating to the moment, for not saying only anecdotal. China is a «partner, competitor and rival (not enemy)» of Russia, if serves this polyvalent definition, which does that none of the expressions are in fullness. In Afghanistan, the Russians could never have settled from the Modern Age. Also the Russians try to win and keep in his «political and commercial sphere» the new central Asiatic Islamic Turkman republics and the ex-Soviets Slavonic Republics. Till now, the Customs Union created by Russia includes only the White Russia and Kazajistan.

Resultado de imagen de putin xi jinpingCHINA IS A «PARTNER, COMPETITOR AND RIVAL» OF RUSSIA.

Following his direct, imperious and operating manners, in the middle of December, 2013, Putin threw a strong argument to Ukraine. In order that she was happening to form part of this Russian Turkoman «sphere of coprosperity»: he offered her to lower 33% the price of transfer of the Russian gas, of which Ukraine is recipient and reseller. And, to save Ukraine from the financial bankruptcy and did not have to be thrown for it in hands of the European Community Troika, he would give her up to $15 billion in soft credits. While, in Ukraine the newly arisen social politic problems have led to a strongest polarization of the country. Two almost antagonistic halves being formed: where the part at the west of Crimea, wants to move away from Moscow and the half at the east of this peninsula seeks to grow the bonds with Russia.

Ukraine is for history and for demography a part of the Europe limited at the East by the Urals. And Ukraine is for political opportunity and historical moment part of the democratic and liberal Center Western Europe. That forms together with the United States, which operates as the other fundamental «vibrant pole» placed at the West side of the Atlantic Ocean, the «Western Civilization». A great problem appears now, not only to Ukraine, but to his neighbors in its eastern and western frontiers. And it is to obtain that the today antagonists and irreconcilable forces, that face in Ukraine, crushing his motherland, turn into complementary and necessary forces between them. And it is a great joint, disinterested labor, with broad-mindedness and directed by statesmen. Which is necessary to develop to achieve it and to remove the scarecrows that glimpse in his political social horizons. If there not be obtaining this «merger of interests», which is the mission of the Politics, the alternative would be bad for all, natives and nearby and distant neighbors. And the wound only would be falsely closed up and for an unforseeable time.

Resultado de imagen de novarrusia soldiersUKRAINE’S INFANTRY FORCES.

For Russia, Ukraine is something more than a strategic ally. As would be the Japanese Empire, the Western Europe or the Great Britain for the USA. Ukraine is a part of the national Russian essence. In Ukraine was born many hundreds of years ago, the strong and promising germ of the Russian nation, the Rus. From the fall of the USSR in 1989, Russia did not face a major disruptor cataclysm, potentially rupturist, that the Orange Revolution of Julie Timoshenko in 2004. Russia must have digested and neutralized or assimilated it, slowly and pacifically. But, the Ukrainian natives and his Russian allies chose to contain and to extinguish it.

It was the easiest thing, but they left a powerful embers under the cap of ashes. And the latent problem has re-arisen now, virulent and almost out of control. The «irresistible offers» of the European Union to Ukraine neither make concrete, certainly, they nor materialize. Beyond the reports and briefings of the European bureaucracy of Brussels and other cities, paralyzed, without imagination, or moral courage, which is selfprotected and automanages. By February 19 or 20, 2014 was generalized the use of “free shooters” or snipers of the police and the special security forces against the most uncontrollable demonstrators or emphasized from the popular revolts, specially in Kiev.

Resultado de imagen de novarrusia soldiers EAST UKRAINE IS IN DANGER…

Since then, the armed opposition of the Novarussia (this way the prorussians separatists autoname their territory in the Donbass’ basin and adjacent zones), supported by the Russians with military equipments (intermingled with convoy of supposed humanitarian help for the civil population of the region) and «groups» of voluntary internationalists, even veteran prorussians Chechenian; and the central government of Kiev, with the president Petro Poroshenko at its head, have followed an operational politic strategy of the “give and take”, of the cachumbambé or balancing pole. Where everything is enough measured and reasonably controlled, to be advancing each part by few and measured steps. Without they irreversibly get run away the animal of the open warfare between nations and alliances. And this way we are and we will continue for long time…

After realizing the armed manly act in Ukraine, the popularity of Putin raised in Russia. And it is kept consistently since then over 80 %… This is not normal in the democracies, if do not exist exceptional situations. Which are those in Russia? Putin has turned into a political social vibrant hub for the Russian people. To which he has recovered the national honor and the category of world power. At less, that is what Russians feel and caught… And though it would not be such, according his demographic and macroeconomic dates, if he was lacking the nuclear arsenal inherited from the USSR. But the emotions and then the feelings are those that create and send out the psychic energy. And they are capable of overcoming the dismay and the vulgarity of a little hard and gray life. And the Russian people wishes and bets for it. And Putin is now his leader, commander, great chief and guardian.

The National Strategy of Putin.

But, not all are kindness and advantages in a super presidentialist regime. The concentrated and decisive power has to be administered in small doses, to not abuse, nor damage, nor to fall down in the temptation of looking for his indefinite continuity. The despotism (that arises from the rotten conviction of the controls from which «they» have «saved» «their» Motherland), the corruption and the clientelism spread over the circles of the power and his outskirts. And they become manifest and customary in the society.

The political and ideological opposition, with his critiques, parliamentary actions and street protests, can become almost unbearable for those who center in planning, deciding and executing in altars of the people, but not with the people. The jail and the confiscation of goods are reprisals of all the life. Which origin gets lost in the times night, in the prehistory, for the dissidents, uncontrollable and disobedient and for all the potential (imagined or not) and real enemies of the regime.

Another «appearance» of democracy that the Russian government exhibits: when the exercised power is almost all-embracing, it is not balanced or compensated by other public independent powers and is held during too much time, turns out to be almost inevitable the appearance of the self-complacency, the corruption, the indifference and the arrogance in many controls that were originally correct.

Russia, at least during a time, will try to recover his rights, traditions and influences. Or it will have to content with turning into a “nation State», without dependent, participative and profitable for all partners «coprosperity spheres”. That «regional or second-class power», as Obama named her at the beginnings of this crisis at the beginning of 2014.

Russia, once known himself as the Second Rome, follows a national, centrifugal, expansive strategy towards the exterior, from her «vibrant European space«. Leaving from that great «national center of the Slavonic etnia» and acting in “waves of communication, influence and domain”, in this order, Russia is straining in extending his presence and ascendancy all over the world, going towards all the possible countries.

Resultado de imagen de russia the second Rome A BUST OF THE PRESIDENT AS CAESAR, ROME EMPEROR OR CZAR, RECEIVES THE SALUTE…

One of the first national exterior aim of Putin is to promote the «multipolarity in the world structure» of the great powers and his allies. Looking that does not exist a world hegemonic power as the USA, which hinders him in the extension of his influence and power from his «core center». For it, Russia will create alliances and will establish agreements and treaties with third parties in detriment or in substitution of that hegemonic power. And he will be a «intransigent obstructionist actor» in all the actions that that one unilaterally promotes in the international forums (UNO, Atomic International Energy Agency). This way, the actions of the western nations in the Syrian conflict are frustrated and limited by the systematic veto of Russia to its approval in the Security Council of the UNO.

Another great strategic preference of Putin is to extend his influence and enlarge the economic and diplomatic bonds with the nations in development, specially those who have «natural resources and primary crops», that are necessary for the manufacturing production, the supply and the general development of the nations. This has taken them and will take them even far beyond of his geographical borders of political or strategically military influences. Using the economy, one of the forces of the national strategy or great strategy of a country, helped by the diplomacy, another one of her potentials, Russia tries to create with the emergent countries «cores of action and shared prosperity». Initiated or cultivated in a world that Russia wishes and search that is «multipolarized» in diverse «cores and centers of geopolitical power». That reduce this way necessarily, by his mere existence, the influence of the great western powers, today «depending of the world trade «.

This national and civilizer geocentrism places Russia as central piece of the Eurasia megacontinent. Where only China might hinder him in his plans of recovery of the lost influences. At the west of China, next with his Sinkiang’s immense region (Xinjiang), in the Eastern Turkestan, is a rosary of ancient Socialist Soviet Republics of 2 thousand Kms of length, which reaches up to the oriental shore of the Caspian Sea. They are, from east to west, Kazajistan, Kirguistan, Tadzikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. And these countries form a monolithic set of several etnias, picked up in their names, but extended simultaneously over several countries, of Turkoman origin, of the central steppes of Asia, and also agglutinated by his belonging to the sunni Islam. All this forms a multinational defensive and refractory shield to the expansive activity and to the significant presence of the Chinese in his internal matters or in his exterior trade, that have political guardianship effects. These Turkoman Muslims are rather a potentials allied of the Great Russia. In all that he puts a bit of dedication and neatnessI in attract and attend them.

Resultado de imagen de Putin xI jINPING sign gas dealPUTIN AND XI JINPING SIGN THEIR NATURAL GAS DEAL IN PEKING.

With his habitual opportunity and operational agility, Putin signed with the president Xi Ji Ping on Wednesday, the 21st of May, 2014 a strategic contract (30 years of validity) to supply China with 38 billions of ms3 of Russian natural gas each year. Certain is that the negotiations of this transcendental contract have extended during a decade, but the opportunity of his signature for both partners is undeniable. Russia has determined his signature lowering a little the price of transfer, which has not leaked out, and that was the principal obstacle for the agreement between the Russian state entity Gazprom and the National Corporation of the Oil of China. It will be begun immediately the installation of a new gas pipeline between Siberia and China, which will cost $ 55 billion and which will be operative in 4 years. China obtains this way a stable supply of part of his energetic primary needs (about 25 %). Which will allow him to be reducing his strategic dependence of his national coal. Whose combustion is the principal generating one of the massive pollution that suffer nowadays the great cities and the industrialized coast of China. It is calculated, according to the official estimations, that China will need 400 billions of ms3 of gas by 2020, doubling the current consumption of gas. Which opens the possibility for new extensions of the Russian supply in the frame of this agreement. For his part, looking for alternative markets for his primary energy, Putin reduces transcendency and efficiency with this commercial operation to the stuttering actions of the European Union, to replace part of the supply of the Russian gas, using other hypothetical suppliers of across the seas. And, in addition, any strangulation of the current service to his buyers, will force the EU to increase his help to Ukraine, to compensate his «reduced income» for the passage of the gas along his territory.

(TO BE CONTINUED)

The Western Defense and the Great Strategy of his Nations II.

(CONTINUATION)

This way, for us, to cut away in our National Defense is to damage, hurt or mutilate, according to the cases, the solidity, conviction, credibility and continuity of the internal and external projection of the Spain “seal». It is not a question of having up to an elite unit of «infantry on donkeys» (as «mountain dragoons»). To be able to clean an affront in Bolivia or in the Central African Republic. As the one that had needed Great Britain, when she wanted to avenge in the 19th century an offense from the Bolivians. That showed off her Ambassador mounted in a donkey. And found that neither the Royal Navy, nor her embarked infantry could coming up to lands so deep inland. But it is a theme that our Smart Defense, praised already by the NATO, supports and balanced and adequately distributes her budgets and means. In order that she can face the three mentioned kinds of wars, in the framework of the European and Western Joint Defense.

The modern units must be adapted for every type of fight and, at the same time, be bivalent or polyvalent. For example, the small elite units are suitable for their employment in the three types of wars. Their tasks are to attack diverse enemy’s critical vulnerabilities, using assaults with limited aims in his tactical or operative depth. Realizing always a study, the exposition and very rigorous tests of their insertion and extraction, which are their tactical weaknesses. The artillery units and the nuclear tactical missiles units are useful in the first phases of a nuclear conflict. And when the conventional war enters a serious conflict, which cannot get lost. Using them as part of a flexible response operational strategy and by successive steps. The modern anti ballistic missiles of the system AEGIS and the Patriots can serve to collaborate destroying the enemy missiles of any origin and in the three types of conflicts. Let’s remember that Saddam Hussein provoked repeatedly the Israelis in the War of the Gulf of 1991 (a regular war), using his different types of SCUD (ballistic antiquated missiles of calculable paths) with conventional heads. And that Hamas, in the totally asymmetric conflict at ends of 2012, was throwing with great profusion and diffusion theirs over Israel’s south and center. Managing to reach without any precision Tel Aviv’s beaches and the suburbs of Jerusalem, using the missiles facilitated by Iran. That is to say, almost all the types of existing units are necessary, incorporating them In a balanced and sufficient combination, to attend to the challenges of the different armed conflicts.

The Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (not driven planes of exploration and of bombardment) also has content and usefulness here. But always operating as part of the «combined weapon sets». The planes without crew can substitute profitably one «reconnaissance long range patrol» (exploration patrol in the operational enemy zone). To confirm with the sights the presence of an eminent enemy chief, hidden between the walls and courts of his shelter residence, placed in a cultural and ethnically related to him country. An exploration patrol would assume undue risks in the deep interior of an hostile territory. And even they might precisely and cleanly execute him with the AGM-114 Hellfire II missiles. If it was not because the most probably of doing it (that belongs to God!), which is looked for by the «overkilling», «over liquidating» the enemy. In spite of the «dead and injured men and collateral property damages», that grow this way lateral and exponently. And the almost neurotic «body count» or checking the corpse or the remains, to properly value the mission. Both are «appearances» (or spiderwebs, as is preferred) taken root in the mind and know how of the commands and military doctrines of the USA.

For example, when they tried, with only a pure attrition action, to operationally destroy the long distance and distribution transports and the logistic support structures (stores and distribution centers towards the different enemy supply areas of its tour, sections with hard surfaces roads, vehicles repair centers, etc.) of the Route Ho Chi Minh. Using the «saturation bombardments» of the B-52 (a strategic bomber in constant tactical missions!) and the most precise attacks of their ground support bombers. These were principally the AC-130, with diverse variants, and the light bomber B-576, a highly improved device, designed from the British Canberra of the 50s of the 20th century. The Route allowed enough abaster to the Vietcong and the regular North Vietnamese forces in the «demilitarized zone», between both Vietnamese republics, and at the south of that. And it was thinking up from North Vietnam across this of Laos. The support bombers were attacking in the night the trucks’ rest parks and the trucks marching groups. And, following came the “body count”, using airplanes with cameras. Looking to measure and quantify the success of the missions of the Command Hunt (or Command for the Route). The problem was that, the following day, the whole attacked section of the route was turning out to be unpolluted, without debris, not even any residue. The junior Americans officials explained ironically it, speaking about the effective action of a «Great Laotian Truck Eater Monster». That was taking charge at dawn, stubbornly cleaning the route for the North Vietnamese. For 1972, the total of enemy vehicles destroyed in the Uncle Ho’s Route, according to the most rigorous body count, was overcoming in more than 50% the calculated by the Military Intelligence in the total North Vietnamese park.

And this has continued happening in the «stage» of the War called of the Information. Whose paradigm or principal metaphor, is the computer and its derivatives. It was supposed that, after the «dispersion» created by the introduction of the internal combustion engine in the operations, it should turn to give a major sensation of control and security in the area of their direction and control. And allow to automate many of the of the military operations’ phases. But, during the so called Kosovo’s War, the Serbian were high capable of teasing the ultramodern sensors of the NATO’s airplanes. Using for it cheap artifices of elementary technology: as were the diverse camouflages, the decoys or false targets and the fleeting emission of their machines. When the «fog» in the air operations vanished, their inefficiency, after 78 days of bombardments, was evident. And in this period, the NATO was encouraged by a false sensation of success. «Newsweek» published an article in the year 2000, where appeared an investigation realized by USA Air Force years ago, to «measure» the results of those air raids. So, they detected the rests of 14 tanks (of the 120 initially «targets reached»), of 18 armored infantry transport vehicles (for 220 «targets reached» declared) and of 20 towed or self-propelled artillery pieces, while they confirmed in its moment up to 450 «struck» pieces. More things of the electronics, optics and the great distance to the enemy…

THE END.

The Western Defense and the Great Strategy of his Nations

Since more than two decades, the USA has been systematically reducing his Defense budgets. Free of the threat of a global confrontation with the USSR and his allies of the Warsaw Pact, the USA has dedicated growing quantities of the contributors money to increase their squalid «social public expenditures». But, the USA is something more than a «continent in their self», only subject to the mercantile globalization. They are the principal pillar of the West Defense. And they are one of his two poles or vital, active, ideological and complementary nodes. And the other are Western and Oriental Europe, joined now with their anxieties of freedom and by a several social and economic systems, that are imperfect, but assumed and in development.

Development of the situation of weakness.

During the application of the Marshall Plan (known there as the European Recovery Program, name toked from the general of five stars George Marshall, chief of the High Staff of the US Army during the World War II and Secretary of State in 1947) for the reconstruction and development of Western Europa, this was nourished with the American assistances and investments. And before his voracious Red enemy «ad portam», that might cross theoretically the German plains in a few hours and reach Hamburg and the Benelux, the western Europeans did not have to realize relevant expenses for their Defense. Europe was entrusting it to the weapon systems and the soldiers of the USA. Which were covering and threatening the whole low abdomen of the Red Czars Empire. Forming so placed a protective insulating cordon, from the North Atlantic up to the Pacific Ocean and creating strategic alliances from the NATO to the SEATO (or South East Asia Treaty Organization). If we want to estimate how much money and effort the Europeans saved themselves, been able to do without these inevitable expenses of pure survival, we can see an example. The overwhelming weight of the military expenses that supported the USSR in his last ten years, was the necessary reason, though not sufficient, of their social economic asphyxiation. That took them to the inevitable precipice in 1989. A second range Soviet leader accepted later that, «we even did not have anything to eat».

But Europe also was contributing an ideological counterpoint, a psychological balance and a socio cultural magma to this transversal «mutual exchange» in the West. That were giving to the USA, continuity, sense and belonging to a tradition and to an active, enterprising, expansive, Christian and millenarian idiosyncrasy. That were taken root in the Greeks, the Romans, the Christian Revelation and the identities and baggages of the peoples westernized successively. This helps to constantly create and adapt the collective identity of the USA and his raison d’être as «primus inter pares» of this actual civilization. And this «double osmosis» of thoughts, experiences and identities, creates the modern western society, as we know her. That, with all his failures, mistakes and faults, continues being the «social identity and entity» more anticipated social, political and economically. And the one that more individual and collective rights recognizes to her citizens and inhabitants.

Now the purple and the control in West weighs to the USA. And, in the retreating phase of one of their vital cycles, they have partly forgotten their belonging to the Western Civilization » dependent of the international commerce». But this multi polar world is not safer than that of the two antagonistic irreconcilable, liberal and communist, social blocks, which disappeared almost 15 years ago. Let’s see several examples of prominent «nodes» in the actual «multi polar network» of nations and their associations and alliances. An expansionist China governed by the Communist Party, who looks for regional alliances, for the moment only with commercial interests towards the scanty and strategic materials, with the emergent countries of all the continents. And that tries to create her «sphere of influence and co prosperity» of great metropolis in the western Pacific Ocean. A full of contradictions Russia, a great power that always has reacted and has grown bolder with the dangers and vital difficulties, with an increasing importance and ambition. The South American and African continents, in that almost only the lack of leaders and effective elites, which are the principal antidote against the corruption and the lack of stable investments, hinder and stop an exuberant and endured economic and social expansion during decades. A Middle East and a north of Africa in full social boiling, that are guided by an expansive, global and exclusive religion in her more vindicator interpretations. More than for a few democratic «green buds», which do not have any tradition in their social idiosyncrasies.

A stationary and bureaucratized Europe, very advanced technologically and developed. But that is ideologically lethargic and without «reasonable illusions». That motivate and stimulate it to the social phase of motivation and expansion of a new cycle. And without having attacked to his time, still, the most difficult integration of his supranational institutions. To that there are opposed passively all the national and European bureaucracies, for his own inert existential weight, and in reason to the structural present and future complications and to the zones of power in game. That motivate and stimulate it to the phase of socials motivation and expansion in a new vital cycle. And without having undertook in time, still, the most difficult integration of her supranational institutions. To which are passively opposed all the national and European bureaucracies, by their own inert existential weight. And in reason to the structural present and future complications and to the zones of power in game. Because only when the belonging to a social superior entity produces social, political and economic tangible benefits, will be when the peoples, regions and many of their leaders appreciate, be interested and prefer the Joined Europe, to a commercialized and amorphous union of European nations.

Correction of the course of the Western Defense towards an expansion phase .

The USA and the countries of the old Europe must remember that the expansion and yet the maintenance of the civilizations begin with the arrival of the colonists, merchants and adventurers. That assume the first risks in interacting with local natives and create the first bonds between strangers. In order that all they start feeling interestedly complementary between them. And without nobody perceives between them a potential threat. That the falling back civilizations or yet «stable and crystallized», create an existential emptiness. That attracts and favors the penetration, deployment and new developments in the neighboring civilizations.

And that no healthy civilization cannot be supported without a sufficient Armed Forces. That must assume and face the different and yet contradictory challenges of the three classes of conflicts or modern wars: the regular, the nuclear and the irregular. In the European intervention in Libya, authorized only for the air protection of the civilians, was observed that the Europeans lack, for example, of airplanes of supply of fuel in flight. And these had to be facilitated by the USA, to carry out our air interdiction missions and of bombing the reinforced positions and the tanks of Libyan government. And the ground attacking French aviation to support the operations of the French and of Mali troops has also needed the airplanes of supply in flight of the USA. To be able to increase her attack to land capacities, in firepower, effective range and time of service and optimize his offensive flights. And to displace from Azawad’s Islamic Republic, in the north of Mali and with a surface of 600 thousand Km2. (The major European country, France, only has 550 thousand Km2.), all the radical islamist groups (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrib, Ansar al-Dine and others), that established themselves in Mali at the beginning of 2012, when Gaddafi was eliminated. The significant European lacks are not corrected in reasonable time due to the national diminishing budgets, which we have to apply in an economic long stagnation phase. But, also, due to the own absence of an European sufficient, integrated and flexible Defense Politic.

Nevertheless, in May, 2012 a summit conference of NATO took place in Chicago, to define his joint strategy for Afghanistan and to deep into the «Smart Defense». And, on the occasion of its preparations, at the end of April, 2012, the General Secretary of the NATO, the Danish Anders Fogh Basmussen declared that: «I do not believe that Europe is being militarily threatened just now, during this crisis». Is it necessary to see the wolf’s ears to buy and to provide the shepherds with dogs and cudgels? How much time is necessary in creating new units in combat capacity and in designing, making and deploying new weapon systems?

(TO BE CONTINUED)